March 5, 200818 yr The problem is that neither democrat candidate is going to garner enough delegates to win the nomination prior to the convention. I still think Clinton will be the nominee because the dems can not take the chance and not nominate a Clinton. Obama is still young and will run again down the road. That is also why the superdelegates will swing toward Hillary as well. If the "popular vote" of the Democratic primaries chooses Obama and the party chooses Clinton, that would be a monster wedge driven through the party. If she legitimately wins delegates AND the overall popular vote, then she should be the nominee.
March 5, 200818 yr I don't understand why the Popular Vote doesn't declare the delegates. I understand that they weight the counties based on population, but to me that says to the smaller counties that their votes aren't worth as much. I think they should distribute them proportionately with the popular vote. I think I understand this, but then again I could have the way they are distributed completely wrong. Same thing happens in the general election. That's why Obama/Clinton/McCain will make a small number of appearances in our commonwealth...and even fewer in places like Montana, South Dakota and Wyoming.
March 5, 200818 yr Two weeks ago, Clinton held a 20 point lead in both Texas and Ohio. They trended toward Obama, not away from him. Even if she wins the popular vote, I would be surprised to see her win more delegates than Obama in TX... Exactly, she may win the overall vote, but will be hard pressed to have a majority of delegates.
March 5, 200818 yr If the "popular vote" of the Democratic primaries chooses Obama and the party chooses Clinton, that would be a monster wedge driven through the party. If she legitimately wins delegates AND the overall popular vote, then she should be the nominee. There is no popular vote. It is delegates. After tonight there are 711 pledged delegates left. Obama will have 1400 and change after tonight. Hillary 1300 and change. It takes 2025 to win. Neither candidate will get to 2025. The superdelegates are going to decide who wins this race. Those "votes" are not bound by anything. There are 794 superdelegates. In my opinion they will pick Hillary. You heard it here first too. Somehow, even though Florida and Michigan broke the rules and had their delegates nullified, they are going to play some role in this. I mean come on it is Florida, they have to play a role somehow...
March 5, 200818 yr Right now Clinton is leading Texas with 55% reporting. I think Dallas/Houston/Austin are all yet to fully report. Those are considered Obama "hotbeds," which certainly could change the outcome. But as of now, she appears to have a roughly 50,000 vote lead (50%-48%).
March 5, 200818 yr There is no popular vote. It is delegates. After tonight there are 711 pledged delegates left. Obama will have 1400 and change after tonight. Hillary 1300 and change. It takes 2025 to win. Neither candidate will get to 2025. The superdelegates are going to decide who wins this race. Those "votes" are not bound by anything. There are 794 superdelegates. In my opinion they will pick Hillary. You heard it here first too. Somehow, even though Florida and Michigan broke the rules and had their delegates nullified, they are going to play some role in this. I mean come on it Florida, they have to play a role somehow... I know there is no popular vote, but don't think for a minute people won't be adding up the numbers. If those numbers equal more for Obama than Clinton, the people will be up in arms if the supers cast the vote for Hillary.
March 5, 200818 yr Exactly, she may win the overall vote, but will be hard pressed to have a majority of delegates. She will win more superdelegates than Obama will and that is what will decide the race. After these next 711 pledged delegates are split Obama will have IMO less than a 100 delegate lead going into the convention. Hillary will get 100 more superdelegate votes than Obama will.
March 5, 200818 yr I think Dallas/Houston/Austin are all yet to fully report. Those are considered Obama "hotbeds," which certainly could change the outcome. But as of now, she appears to have a roughly 50,000 vote lead (50%-48%). 58K and growing. Clinton has won Texas.
March 5, 200818 yr 58K and growing. Clinton has won Texas. Agreed. As you mentioned earlier, though, the delegate numbers aren't going to make much of a difference. More than anything, tonight's wins keep her in the race. On to Pennsylvania...oh wait, Wyoming, then Pennsylvania.
March 5, 200818 yr Agreed. As you mentioned earlier, though, the delegate numbers aren't going to make much of a difference. More than anything, tonight's wins keep her in the race. On to Pennsylvania...oh wait, Wyoming, then Pennsylvania. Don't forget the one of those three Obama is going to win, Mississippi is before Pennsylvania. Obama will lose Pennsylvania and Wyoming. The difference between the pledged delegates is going to between Obama and Clinton is going to be less than 100, probably closer to 70. Sorry but that 70 delegate margin is not going to sway superdelegates to vote for Obama.
March 5, 200818 yr Don't forget the one of those three Obama is going to win, Mississippi is before Pennsylvania. Obama will lose Pennsylvania and Wyoming. The difference between the pledged delegates is going to between Obama and Clinton is going to be less than 100, probably closer to 70. Sorry but that 70 delegate margin is not going to sway superdelegates to vote for Obama. To the good people of the Magnolia State, I forgot about Mississippi. Forgive me?:lol:
March 5, 200818 yr To the good people of the Magnolia State, I forgot about Mississippi. Forgive me?:lol: :thumb: Going to be very tough for Obama to win Pennsylvania if he is down by nearly a quarter of a million votes in Ohio.
March 5, 200818 yr Another big problem is that Clinton is winning the states that the Dems usually win in the general election. They have that argument going for them. This is going to go all the way through. Then you have the Michigan and Florida problem. This is going to become a mess I am afraid. It could end up in court. I will say this. Obama looked like a beaten man last night. It was also reported that he called Hillary last night. I wonder what that is all about.
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