4th Region Draw

[DragonFire]

 

Winners:
-Bowling Green - If there was a better draw for Bowling Green, I'd like to hear what it was.  Every team on their side with them has a worse record than all the teams on the top.  They get Glasgow right away, so essentially, a bye to the semifinals.  They beat Franklin-Simpson by 34 when they played in December, and they've never lost to Russell County.  I would have written Bowling Green in the finals in pen regardless, but you can basically engrave it.

-Russell County - It's a mild win, but this was definitely the best first game they could have gotten among their options.  The Lakers haven't been to the region tournament in seven years, so this is as soft a landing as they could have gotten.

Losers:
-Barren County - There is no worse draw they could have gotten, facing off against Warren Central to open, and if they manage to climb that mountain, probably a 29 win Clinton County team waiting for them.

-Warren Central - Really a loser by way of there not being a team in Bowling Green's path that could even slow them down.  It's not a new sensation.  They'll be confident they will beat both Barren County and whoever they'd face in the semis (Clinton County), but it's certainly a tougher path than they'd have desired and it meant that no one is in Bowling Green's way at all.

-Glasgow - Let's be real, there was no GOOD draw for the five win team.  But they probably would have some athletic advantage over Clinton County and in Franklin would have faced another team with a losing record.  They haven't beaten Bowling Green in 17 years, haven't done it anywhere but Glasgow in just over 24 years, and haven't beaten them at region in 40 years.  And lost to them by 32 in December.

I find the other ones to likely be neutral.  Clinton County knew they'd have to face Bowling Green or Warren Central at some point, and with Central playing Barren County, at least have some potential that they may not have to see them at all.  Logan County is a 19 win team, that's not a cake walk first game.  Speaking of Logan County, their first game is not perfect, but there were no good options among the three potential opponents.  And Franklin-Simpson was probably hoping to get Glasgow, but Russell County is at least not Warren Central.

[mcpapa]

Looks like a BG-WC rematch for the title.  No surprise. 

[TheBallCoach]

Even if Warren East would’ve got the District runner up bid that Glasgow swiped away from them your analysis of it being a far weaker side of the bracket would still be valid. I know the two teams at the top are capable of competing with top teams across the state on an annual basis but this really is a very bad region from top to bottom when you really peel back the curtain.
 

It may be a little far fetched to have this thought but I would like to see FCA continue to build a decent basketball and possibly compete in this region. With no other private schools in the area I don’t believe this thought is too off base.
 

So that leads to my question for you @DragonFire, like the past two decades in the next ten years will this continue being a two horse race or could you see any of the other schools in this region becoming competitive outside of a possible once every ten years team comes through a program?

[DragonFire]

36 minutes ago, TheBallCoach said:

So that leads to my question for you @DragonFire, like the past two decades in the next ten years will this continue being a two horse race or could you see any of the other schools in this region becoming competitive outside of a possible once every ten years team comes through a program?

What Bowling Green and Warren Central have combined to do in the last 16 years (and can extend to 23 if adding Central's initial run that Bowling Green was not nearly as large a part of) is pretty much unprecedented in this region.  I'm not sure that there's ever been two programs that dominated a region to the extent these two have, maybe anywhere in the state.  They've combined for 36 region final appearances (18 each) out of 46 available appearances starting in 2002.  There hasn't been a single region title game played in that entire span that at least one of them wasn't in, and they've met in six of the last seven.  So all of that to say that you'd have to think that it can't go on like that forever.  I do think South Warren is a program that if they could find a way to break through, that the floodgates would open for them.  That is a school that is designed for success in all facets, and they've had some very solid teams that could not get through because of Central and Bowling Green.  I think Barren County has shown great consistency in their program, and if one or both were weakened some that they could conceivably break through.  They've certainly been one of the ones that has frequently given them good games, and they're the last team outside of the 14th District to beat one of them in a postseason game (beating Warren Central in 2016 - the last time a team from outside the 14th District made a region final).  Both Barren and South Warren are large schools that can compete with numbers, have a very good support system, and a lot of funds for the program. 

I will say that FCA could be a wildcard, but I honestly don't see it.  I think if they had been placed in the 13th or 15th, maybe.  Maybe they could have gained a foothold.  But it's going to be hard for them to truly attract top tier talent when there are dominant powerhouses in the same county as them, and when they have no proven track record of success. 

[DragonFire]

I realized in re-reading that Russellville made the final in 2017, the last time a team outside the 14th made it.  But the part about Barren being the last to defeat Central or Bowling Green in the region tourney outside the 14th remains true.

[Hillbilly He-Man]

Clinton County is a pretty good basketball team. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run.

[DragonFire]

I think Clinton County is a capable team, and has obviously won a lot. They still don’t have much to hang their hat on in terms of teams they’ve beaten. I just can’t pick them to advance past a 14th District team in all likelihood. They’re 1-14 all-time at region against teams from that district. I know that’s not this team, but I still find it concerning (for them) that they did not play a team from the 14th. Not even a team from the 13th - don’t be surprised if Logan gives them a game. 
 

If it is Warren Central they see in a semifinal, Central is 13-1 all-time against 16th District reps at region. 

[TheBarber]

19 hours ago, TheBallCoach said:

Even if Warren East would’ve got the District runner up bid that Glasgow swiped away from them your analysis of it being a far weaker side of the bracket would still be valid. I know the two teams at the top are capable of competing with top teams across the state on an annual basis but this really is a very bad region from top to bottom when you really peel back the curtain.
 

It may be a little far fetched to have this thought but I would like to see FCA continue to build a decent basketball and possibly compete in this region. With no other private schools in the area I don’t believe this thought is too off base.
 

So that leads to my question for you @DragonFire, like the past two decades in the next ten years will this continue being a two horse race or could you see any of the other schools in this region becoming competitive outside of a possible once every ten years team comes through a program?

So…. here’s my response. Look at the rosters from Moss Middle, BGJHS, Drakes Creek and SWMS. Look how differently they look from 7th-12th grades. That’s the biggest reason WC and BG are dominating this region. You will not convince me otherwise. I’ve followed this region since 1988 as a player, coach and now just a basketball fan. 
As for FCA, I’m wondering when they will join the district/region. It will be a tough climb for them. They will have to really invest in the program big time. 

[LethalPG]

Let’s go Clinton Co!  I think the Wing they added coming into season has really helped this team.  They have really quality size with Cannon Young and a few others.  They will present a formidable challenge in the Semis IMO.

[DragonFire]

2 hours ago, TheBarber said:

So…. here’s my response. Look at the rosters from Moss Middle, BGJHS, Drakes Creek and SWMS. Look how differently they look from 7th-12th grades. That’s the biggest reason WC and BG are dominating this region. You will not convince me otherwise. I’ve followed this region since 1988 as a player, coach and now just a basketball fan. 
As for FCA, I’m wondering when they will join the district/region. It will be a tough climb for them. They will have to really invest in the program big time. 

Certainly, that's probably the biggest part of the equation.  The thing is, that movement is not likely to ever stop.  To quote The Wire - "The thing about the old days, they the old days." In the last 15-20 years movement has become very high among schools.  Central gets hammered in other sports, but they benefit in boys basketball.  But the day likely will come when the spinning plates drop for them.  I'm not certain that'll be true of Bowling Green.  But I do believe if/when it happens to Central, it will be South that picks it up and runs with it.  Greenwood... they're in a rougher spot IMO.

[mcpapa]

43 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Certainly, that's probably the biggest part of the equation.  The thing is, that movement is not likely to ever stop.  To quote The Wire - "The thing about the old days, they the old days." In the last 15-20 years movement has become very high among schools.  Central gets hammered in other sports, but they benefit in boys basketball.  But the day likely will come when the spinning plates drop for them.  I'm not certain that'll be true of Bowling Green.  But I do believe if/when it happens to Central, it will be South that picks it up and runs with it.  Greenwood... they're in a rougher spot IMO.

Which is pretty much how you explained why Central struggles in girls’ hoops. 

[TheBarber]

40 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Certainly, that's probably the biggest part of the equation.  The thing is, that movement is not likely to ever stop.  To quote The Wire - "The thing about the old days, they the old days." In the last 15-20 years movement has become very high among schools.  Central gets hammered in other sports, but they benefit in boys basketball.  But the day likely will come when the spinning plates drop for them.  I'm not certain that'll be true of Bowling Green.  But I do believe if/when it happens to Central, it will be South that picks it up and runs with it.  Greenwood... they're in a rougher spot IMO.

I agree with most of that. WC had 4?? returners this year. Magically a couple of new 6’4-6’5 kids are there and 2 brothers move from out of state. It’s been happening for several years. I think as long as Unseld is there it’ll keep happening. He does a great job coaching and kids like playing for him. 
BG needed a “big” this year and Hurt fell into their lap… I know he’s not big per se, but he’s the biggest they have. They lose 6 seniors this year and next year should for sure be a big rebuild for them, unless some real players go. 
SW, I’m not sure about. They love their football, and I know a couple of fb players that are done with basketball. 
GW (my guys) are the odd man out. Well coached, good support, just not enough Jimmys and Joes. Not enough mentally tough kids there right now. 

[DragonFire]

6 minutes ago, TheBarber said:

I agree with most of that. WC had 4?? returners this year. Magically a couple of new 6’4-6’5 kids are there and 2 brothers move from out of state. It’s been happening for several years. I think as long as Unseld is there it’ll keep happening. He does a great job coaching and kids like playing for him. 
BG needed a “big” this year and Hurt fell into their lap… I know he’s not big per se, but he’s the biggest they have. They lose 6 seniors this year and next year should for sure be a big rebuild for them, unless some real players go. 
SW, I’m not sure about. They love their football, and I know a couple of fb players that are done with basketball. 
GW (my guys) are the odd man out. Well coached, good support, just not enough Jimmys and Joes. Not enough mentally tough kids there right now. 

That would be the spinning plates.  Whenever he decides to hang up the whistle, the next hire will tell it all.  If they get someone who kids continue to want to come to Central to play for, then the band will keep playing.  If not, the plates fall.  Success begets success these days, and the way the culture is, the kids gravitate to success.  The high burden that places on the other teams is that when they have the opportunity, they have to seize it.  For Greenwood, in terms of recency, 2022 was that opportunity.  They had a great year, and I've been hard on them for what happened in the district tournament that year, but I firmly believe they were a better team than Bowling Green.  But they missed their chance to continue the momentum they began the previous year, and fell back behind. Like you said, not enough mentally tough kids.  That 2022 team, they weren't mentally tough enough, and let one kid - albeit a Mr. Basketball - screw with their heads so badly that they were more focused on him than the game. All the way to the top of the staff.

[Purple_Reign]

On 3/2/2025 at 12:39 PM, TheBarber said:

I agree with most of that. WC had 4?? returners this year. Magically a couple of new 6’4-6’5 kids are there and 2 brothers move from out of state. It’s been happening for several years. I think as long as Unseld is there it’ll keep happening. He does a great job coaching and kids like playing for him. 
BG needed a “big” this year and Hurt fell into their lap… I know he’s not big per se, but he’s the biggest they have. They lose 6 seniors this year and next year should for sure be a big rebuild for them, unless some real players go. 
SW, I’m not sure about. They love their football, and I know a couple of fb players that are done with basketball. 
GW (my guys) are the odd man out. Well coached, good support, just not enough Jimmys and Joes. Not enough mentally tough kids there right now. 

Say what you will about Hurt, but Idlett, Bailey, Wardlow, Banks, Carpenter, Davis, Dotson, and Kirkwood (only other kids who play) have all been in BG city schools since diapers. Would have been nice to have McCombs, Johnson, and Kirk with that group as well but @DragonFire is right, it's the way of the world now and the KHSAA is pretty much just looking the other way at this point.