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Weather for 9/27

Featured Replies

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ030&warncounty=KYC111&firewxzone=KYZ030&local_place1=Lynnview KY&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook&lat=38.1828&lon=-85.7077

Monitor the latest forecasts as the remnants of Helene could impact
our area by late week into the weekend. Heavy rains and gusty winds
will be the main impacts Friday, with localized flooding possible.

This is Louisville forecast but goes for most or all of state.

From that link:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-261530-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
1122 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 /1022 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Spotty thunderstorms will linger mainly across southern and eastern
Kentucky today. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Monitor the latest forecasts as the remnants of Helene will impact
our area by late week and into the weekend. Heavy rains and gusty
winds will be the main impacts Friday, with localized flooding
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Any isolated storms today will move to the northeast around 20 to 25
mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

$$

13
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph
(130 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it
reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening.  Weakening is
expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow
strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well
inland across the southeastern United States, including over the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde is 979 mb (28.91
inches).

152934_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.050091f9eb5aa901fbf6643c04b59bfd.png

152934WPCERO_sm.gif.1e2ca8a727b65f26307a57864159bd51.gif

 

In a 24 hour period from early Friday to Saturday morning this is what the latest GFS is showing for rainfall totals.

qpf_024h-imp.us_ov.thumb.png.cfe1a4e876718d39891656db3c67b6e3.png

Forgot the radar simulation:

 

floop-gfs-2024092512.prateptype_cat-imp.us_ov.thumb.gif.fe311637a1c1b58ca2a461bc4f89381b.gif

A few teams have already moved their Friday games up to Thursday. 

This is becoming a huge and dangerous storm.

 

G16_sector_gm_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20240925-1150.thumb.gif.b20c57f72ac8fbb7966bdc5a27a20a72.gif

High Wind Watch out from Thursday evening through Friday evening.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

KYZ087-088-118-260915-
/O.NEW.KJKL.HW.A.0001.240927T0300Z-240928T0000Z/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Pineville, Cumberland, Whitesburg,
Jenkins, Middlesboro, and Harlan
340 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
  East winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts of 60 mph or more are
  possible for locations above 2000 feet such as the Log Mountains
  in Bell County as well as along Cumberland, Pine, and Black
  Mountains and locations immediately downwind of these locations.

* WHERE...Bell, Harlan, and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...US Highway 23, US Highway 119, US Highway
  421, KY Highway 38, KY Highway 74, KY Highway 160, and the Little
  Shepard Trail may be affected by some of the stronger wind gusts.

I expect the wind watch to be expanded to include a majority of Kentucky.

YARN | I'd keep playing. I don't think the heavy stuff is ...

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  • Author

HRRR 12Z run and NAM 3K 12Z runs show most of rain in West Kentucky at 8:00 pm.

IMG_6060.png

IMG_6059.png

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