BGP Severe Weather Alert Day #2 April 2, 2024

[nWo]

 
On Tuesday, there is anticipated to be a serious threat from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Over a wide area, there will be a chance of wind damage and sporadic huge hail. The area of middle Tennessee and northeastward into central and northern Kentucky is predicted to be the most dangerous for tornadoes.

Tuesday afternoon will see the best conditions for the formation of a squall line. There will probably be multiple embedded severe storms in this linear cluster of thunderstorms, with wind damage posing the biggest concern. It is anticipated that the risk of wind damage will be at its highest in the late afternoon and early evening. There will be places on the line where tornadic circulations are likely, particularly in the vicinity of segments that bend. In locations where the squall line interacts with locally increased instability and with isolated rotating cells that form ahead of the line, there is also a chance of isolated huge hail. As the line passes across the central Appalachians, a reduction in the severe threat is anticipated in the mid-to-late evening hours.

Check back for an update later today.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Tuesday afternoon and evening look to be the potential for a large-scale, severe weather outbreak, possibly including a few large/long-track tornadoes. The Ohio region has the highest potential of an outbreak, which might move south and into the Tennessee Valley. Cincinnati/NKY is now classified as a level 4 Moderate Risk region. 

At the beginning of the period, widespread thunderstorms with a slight probability of all-hazards severe weather are expected to sweep quickly eastward across the Ohio Valley region. By late morning or midday, this convection should arrive in the central Appalachians; however, it should primarily shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to begin, even though it might have some effect on the potential for destabilization throughout the MDT and ENH risk zones. Storm redevelopment is anticipated during the afternoon as the cold front proceeds across the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys as the surface low deepens, traverses Illinois, and finally moves into Indiana. It is still challenging to identify the evolution/storm mode, partly because of past storms, but some combination of cellular and cluster/linear modes should evolve. All-hazards severe potential, including extremely huge hail, strong/damaging winds, and numerous substantial tornadoes, is clear given the considerable instability forecast in conjunction with very strong/veering deep-layer flow. The biggest risk is expected to start across Indiana and move across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, with the possibility of a few strong, long-track tornadoes.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

One thing mentioned during the conference call about Tuesday's event is the morning convection. If it ends early and the sun comes out and warms the atmosphere, that will not be good for anyone tomorrow afternoon. Ohio is really under the gun for tomorrow. Tornado watches are a practical guarantee for tomorrow.

[TheDeuce]

Looks like things are really ramping up on this one... I'll be paying super close attention. 

[nWo]

Cloud cover will be key. If the morning storms clear out fast enough to allow the sun to shine, It will not be a good afternoon tomorrow. 

[Jumper_Dad]

I'll be out in it tomorrow, driving too and from Lexington in the afternoon. 

[nWo]

Latest update:

Overnight, there has been an increase in the serious threat for this afternoon. A level 3 Enhanced Risk Area covers nearly the whole state of Kentucky. A level 4 Moderate Risk Area now covers portions of the state from the I-64 corridor northward. A small area in western Kentucky is classified as a level 2 Slight Risk Area.

A possibly substantial severe weather outbreak is anticipated for this afternoon and overnight, with the Ohio Valley having the highest probability. A few large/long-track tornadoes could be part of the outbreak. It seems like things are becoming dangerous here. Now is the time for everyone to start getting ready. Examine or start using your emergency action plan. Maintain many avenues of communication for potential alerts related to your region. I will be keeping a careful eye on this and posting updates as soon as the data allows me to.

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

What I observed in the most recent HRRR modeling data is as follows:. I am not fond of what I am witnessing. As far north as middle Ohio, dew points, or tornado juice, could reach the mid-to-upper 60s. This is causing a large, severe weather event, in addition to other upper and lower atmospheric circumstances. Breaks in the cloud cover before this afternoon are another serious issue. More atmospheric destabilization will be possible as a result of the breaks. Early in the afternoon is when the intense convection should start, and as the day goes on, it should get stronger.

I sincerely hope I am mistaken, but I can not stress enough how much everyone reading this needs to get in touch with friends and family by this afternoon to make sure they are prepared.
 

 

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

I'll be back on later this morning. I woke up at 1:30 this morning to go over the situation. I got some things to do this morning and then got a little rest. People may not know this, but covering these events can be quite draining. 

[nWo]

 

 

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late
   morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and
   southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
   with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next
   hour.

   DISCUSSION...Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into
   southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning.
   While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical
   shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection.
   An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the
   background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will
   continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary
   front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will
   be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However,
   enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than
   200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this
   activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be
   needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe
   potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon

[TheDeuce]

@nWoWill this early morning round not stabilize the atmosphere? Or is the thought that it will move through fast enough to clear out and warm up again?

[nWo]

Just now, TheDeuce said:

@nWoWill this early morning round not stabilize the atmosphere? Or is the thought that it will move through fast enough to clear out and warm up again?

The atmosphere will destabilize again this afternoon. The destabilization will be more intense this afternoon and more widespread. 

[TheDeuce]

3 minutes ago, nWo said:

The atmosphere will destabilize again this afternoon. The destabilization will be more intense this afternoon and more widespread. 

Got it. Thanks.

[TheDeuce]

Made it into the office. Strong storm moving through Louisville. Lots of lightning, ridiculous rain.

[nWo]

I just remember using a new tool (3cape) yesterday to predict possible tornadoes. This is almost the same area I drew yesterday.