On 10/30/2023 at 7:38 PM, QueenoftheSouth said:

I agree with your overall opinion that talent is down across the region.

I also agree with you on Lincoln not being in the mix this year. But if Bishop decides to play, is healthy and plays like he’s capable of, he has the potential to be a top 10  player. But that’s a lot of if’s.

If Boyle plays with discipline, on paper they should have as good of a chance to win region as anyone. To your comment about size, they have two freshmen that are 6’5”/6’6”. DCA and Wayne have size, but that alone shouldn’t be a disadvantage for Boyle.

I too think Rock is a year away but think they have enough talent to beat anyone. I do like their size across multiple positions and they have Craig who should emerge as a star this year.

SW, West, Danville and Mcreary are out of the mix.

DCA has as good of a chance as anyone. I was a fan of theirs last year but they didn’t live up to expectations. Like Boyle, their key to success lies in being patient, getting better looks and taking care of the ball. They have a rim protector, a slasher, an experienced PG and a shooter. Then the Fugate kid from Garrard would be a shooter that can handle it pretty well also. I think it takes him getting eligible for them to be in the mix. If he is and they gel, look out. Again, a lot of if’s.

If Dumpfort makes a difference inside like some have said, it makes Wayne a different team. If he’s a legit 15 PPG guy, for sure. But I think they’ll be different from others in the hunt in that like last year they’ll play a more methodical style than the other teams mentioned. I think they’ll be tough to beat in a half court game as they have a great scorer and two bigs to contend with. But I would expect teams to press them to speed them up, and I think ball handling could be their weakness.

You didn't mention Mercer but I think they’re certainly in the mix with Barnes and Ellis. They have as much size as anyone and I believe more depth than others. Their question mark will be taking care of the ball against pressure. Finding that PG.

You also didn’t mention Somerset and they have a really nice backcourt. I think they were the most improved over the course of last season. I look for them to be in the mix as well, def top 5.

Wayne, DCA, Boyle, Mercer, Somerset - in no certain order. Any one those have the talent to get it done. And Rock is just outside that group IMO.

Saw Mercer play last night in the GJ Smith classic, only scored 34 points and looked very much like deers in the headlights. Hazard played a physical game and dominated them. Honestly Mercer unless they have several players that didn't play(and I recognized most) has no chance to win a regional championship. Barnes and T Ellis where the only ones who looked ready to play. Granted Hazard plays a very physical brand of ball, Mercer was extremely sloppy.

1 hour ago, Waterboy70 said:

Saw Mercer play last night in the GJ Smith classic, only scored 34 points and looked very much like deers in the headlights. Hazard played a physical game and dominated them. Honestly Mercer unless they have several players that didn't play(and I recognized most) has no chance to win a regional championship. Barnes and T Ellis where the only ones who looked ready to play. Granted Hazard plays a very physical brand of ball, Mercer was extremely sloppy.

And Lincoln just got beat by 20 by a KC team that won 4 games last year(although much improved)

5 hours ago, Waterboy70 said:

Saw Mercer play last night in the GJ Smith classic, only scored 34 points and looked very much like deers in the headlights. Hazard played a physical game and dominated them. Honestly Mercer unless they have several players that didn't play(and I recognized most) has no chance to win a regional championship. Barnes and T Ellis where the only ones who looked ready to play. Granted Hazard plays a very physical brand of ball, Mercer was extremely sloppy.

Wow, that’s interesting. I was told they were very competitive in their last scrimmage at GRC and I know GRC is way better than Hazard. 
 

They have a new coach that’s changing pretty much everything, but he has a great resume. Barnes and Ellis should combine for 45 + per game once they get going.  I think they’ll be fine by mid-season and still think they have some shot at winning the 12th. Not the favorite by any means but could be in the mix if they can find solid PG play. Each of the top 5-6 teams have significant weaknesses. I think Mercer has the talent to beat any of them.

2 hours ago, QueenoftheSouth said:

Wow, that’s interesting. I was told they were very competitive in their last scrimmage at GRC and I know GRC is way better than Hazard. 
 

They have a new coach that’s changing pretty much everything, but he has a great resume. Barnes and Ellis should combine for 45 + per game once they get going.  I think they’ll be fine by mid-season and still think they have some shot at winning the 12th. Not the favorite by any means but could be in the mix if they can find solid PG play. Each of the top 5-6 teams have significant weaknesses. I think Mercer has the talent to beat any of them.

After watching DCA get absolutely hammered by Harlan County and watching a half of Rockcastle I think Rock may be underrated   Hazard was physical with Mercer and they didn't respond to it

8 hours ago, Waterboy70 said:

Saw Mercer play last night in the GJ Smith classic, only scored 34 points and looked very much like deers in the headlights. Hazard played a physical game and dominated them. Honestly Mercer unless they have several players that didn't play(and I recognized most) has no chance to win a regional championship. Barnes and T Ellis where the only ones who looked ready to play. Granted Hazard plays a very physical brand of ball, Mercer was extremely sloppy.

Mercer will be ok.  Will be up and down to start the season out.  They are down two starters  from last year in back court.  Mayes decided not to play and Drakeford out with injury.  Goodman a backup physical big man also out with injury.  With addition of Barnes and new coach a lot to figure out but they will get there.  

1 hour ago, Waterboy70 said:

After watching DCA get absolutely hammered by Harlan County and watching a half of Rockcastle I think Rock may be underrated   Hazard was physical with Mercer and they didn't respond to it

Rock is a really solid team with good size across the board.  They’re in the top tier. 

So after scrimmage season and at the start of the season we are still where we thought all along. Anyone can win this region. 
 

I’ve seen several of the teams and nothing has changed my mind. 
DCA is most athletic but lacks depth and can’t seem to figure out what they need to do. 
Lincoln is a question mark but with great coaching. I’ve seen this group of seniors play since 6th grade and they are smart and have high BBIQ. Conner Davis and Blayde Nuckles are legit. 
Somerset I think is better than we are giving credit outside of their top two Whitaker and Godbey. 
Boyle I don’t think is being talked about enough. My opinion they are more athletic than DCA and have size and physicality with the Driver kids and Hager. Just won’t know till football ends. 
Mercer has two legit top ten players in the region and are still figuring things out. I thought if the Hazard scrimmage was called properly and kids could foul out it changes that game completely for both teams. Don’t forget Ellis left 2 minutes in with ankle injury but returned. Probably not 100%. 
Rock has been underrated from the start. Craig is a great player and they have some good players around him. Especially the kid that transfered from Berea a year or so ago. His name escapes me. 
Wayne is most solid team and has 3 legitimate top 10-15 players in Phillips, Farmer, and Dumphord if he indeed is playing. Woods will figure the rest out around them. 
Southwestern had some nice pieces I saw so can’t count them out. 
If the rumor I heard that Fraley is out at PC I think that hurts them tremendously. 
East I think deserves to be talked about a little. Radford and Jones can fill it up and they have a transfer from Woodford that is going to give them more of an inside presence and will help them.  
 

What am I missing?  Looks like it’s going to be fun and it starts tomorrow.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, BasketballFan24 said:

So after scrimmage season and at the start of the season we are still where we thought all along. Anyone can win this region. 
 

I’ve seen several of the teams and nothing has changed my mind. 
DCA is most athletic but lacks depth and can’t seem to figure out what they need to do. 
Lincoln is a question mark but with great coaching. I’ve seen this group of seniors play since 6th grade and they are smart and have high BBIQ. Conner Davis and Blayde Nuckles are legit. 
Somerset I think is better than we are giving credit outside of their top two Whitaker and Godbey. 
Boyle I don’t think is being talked about enough. My opinion they are more athletic than DCA and have size and physicality with the Driver kids and Hager. Just won’t know till football ends. 
Mercer has two legit top ten players in the region and are still figuring things out. I thought if the Hazard scrimmage was called properly and kids could foul out it changes that game completely for both teams. Don’t forget Ellis left 2 minutes in with ankle injury but returned. Probably not 100%. 
Rock has been underrated from the start. Craig is a great player and they have some good players around him. Especially the kid that transfered from Berea a year or so ago. His name escapes me. 
Wayne is most solid team and has 3 legitimate top 10-15 players in Phillips, Farmer, and Dumphord if he indeed is playing. Woods will figure the rest out around them. 
Southwestern had some nice pieces I saw so can’t count them out. 
If the rumor I heard that Fraley is out at PC I think that hurts them tremendously. 
East I think deserves to be talked about a little. Radford and Jones can fill it up and they have a transfer from Woodford that is going to give them more of an inside presence and will help them.  
 

What am I missing?  Looks like it’s going to be fun and it starts tomorrow.  

 

 

That’s a great analysis!

Extracting a few things that @BasketballFan24 pointed out:

DCA’s depth issue is real and they’ve struggled with chemistry and roles. Can they stay out of foul trouble and play together? If so, look out. Dut is legit and there’s no other presence in the middle like Ayiel. Both are potential top 10 in the region players. And the addition of Fugate will prove to be huge for them.

Somerset’s backcourt play alone makes them legit. Whitaker and Godbey are legit top 10 in the region caliber players. When they’re shooting well, they’re going to be tough to beat.

Rock’s size across the board is imposing, and they have a kid ranked in the top 10 in the state (class of 2026) in Craig. He can fill it up and is a difficult matchup. But do they have enough scoring otherwise? I’m not sure.

I agree on Boyle. They should have 5 guys on the floor at all times that are athletic for their position. Quisenberry has the potential to be a top 5 player in the region & Brown is a huge addition. They have 2 kids ranked in the top 10 in the state for the class of 2027 in Hager & Turner, with Turner already having significant varsity experience. Similar to DCA, I think the key to their success will be chemistry, but they do have more depth.

Wayne has a top 2-3 player in the region (and top 30 in the state for 2026) in Phillips and it sounds like Dumphord will make a big difference. I don’t see them as the favorite but think they are a top 5.

I’m sticking with what I’ve said about Mercer. With 2 top 10 in the region players in Ellis and Barnes plus a lot of size and depth, I expect their new coach to have them in the hunt by mid-season.

 

Once Somerset gets their football team gelled in, they should be tough team.  It’ll take awhile as they just finished Friday night, and all 4 coming will be starters and/or rotation players for the Jumpers.