March 30, 20233 yr Extreme western Kentucky is now under a level 4 Enhanced Risk for severe storms. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see all of the threat levels expanded eastward. Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. A bi-modal(two distinct areas) regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South.
March 30, 20233 yr Author I just received this notice from the National Weather Service-Louisville. Quote A strong storm system is expected to move across the region Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. A conditional severe threat exists for strong-to-severe thunderstorms Friday night, with the most likely timing window for storms between 9 pm and 4 am (EDT) as of the time of writing. The greatest potential for severe storms will be across western Kentucky and southwestern Indiana, with the severe threat decreasing the farther east you go. The primary severe threat would be damaging straight-line winds, while a few isolated spin-up tornadoes are also possible. Winds outside of thunderstorms will also be strong Friday night into Saturday, and there is an 80-90% chance for wind gusts over 45 mph. Widespread flooding is not expected with this system, with between 0.5-1.5 inches of rain expected on average.
March 31, 20233 yr Author This morning my concern is growing about a significant severe weather event for later today into Saturday morning. Mainly in western Kentucky, The latest model guidance shows the possibility of Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, and some baseball size. Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. Now let's look at what the HRRR model is showing. Note the period covered is from 4 pm EDT Friday to 6 am EDT Saturday. Those in western Kentucky should take note of the individual cells that may form ahead of the main line of storms. The SARS Sounding Analog shows some of these cells could become supercells. These supercells could produce strong, long-track tornadoes. Their strength could reach EF3-4 levels. Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. I will be updating through out the day.
March 31, 20233 yr Author A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley and into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size. Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded each severe weather level eastward. The entire portion of western Kentucky is now under a level 4 Moderate Risk. The level 3 Enhanced Risk Area now reaches to the I-75 corridor this includes the Cincinnati/NKY area. A level 2 Slight Risk Area now reaches into portions of eastern Kentucky. I will be on a conference call this afternoon about the severe weather risk. I will post the new information as soon as I can afterwards.
March 31, 20233 yr Heading South from the Lexington Area on I 75 Early Saturday morning (2 am)...Thoughts on weather then @NWO ?
March 31, 20233 yr Author 19 minutes ago, okie1 said: Heading South from the Lexington Area on I 75 Early Saturday morning (2 am)...Thoughts on weather then @NWO ? As of now, you'll probably see scattered to isolated thunderstorms. The severe weather may have weaken by then.
March 31, 20233 yr Author Notes and pictures from conference call. A strong system will move across the Ohio River Valley today into Saturday. A damaging wind and tornado outbreak is expected across western KY late afternoon into evening (level 4 out of 5 threat) Central Kentucky can expect more scattered instances of damaging wind and tornado threat late evening/overnight (level 3 out of 5 threat) Eastern Kentucky can expect a weakening severe threat with isolated damaging wind and brief tornado threat possible (level 1-2 out of 5 threat) Confidence is high for severe storms in western Kentucky 4 out of 5. It was also mentioned about a severe weather event for next Tuesday-Wednesday. They said this one may have more instability than this one.
March 31, 20233 yr Up to 20 simultaneous tornado warnings from Chicago to Little Rock. East Iowa taking a beating.
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