South Oldham vs Collins Predictions/Updates

[ColonelMike]

BGP #19 South Oldham plays host to BGP #5 Collins on Tuesday, 1/14/2020 in Crestwood.

 

The Dragons come into the game 13-4 and riding a four-game winning streak. 2019 8th Region Player of the Year Luke Morrison is averaging 20.6 ppg; fellow senior guard Seth Johnson is averaging 18.9 ppg / 7.8 rebounds for the Dragons.

 

Arguably the state's top three-point shooting team, South has made 187 - an average of 11 makes a game.

 

The Titans are 13-3 on the season and also riding a four-game winning streak. Collins is led by the favorite to win this year's 8th Region POY award, senior Dayvion McKnight, who is averaging 21.7 ppg and 8.1 rebounds. Marcellus Vail is averaging 16.3 ppg for the Titans.

 

The Titans are one of the top two shooting teams in the region, hitting 51.1% of their shots.

 

Collins has beaten #8 Madisonville-North Hopkins and #12 North Laurel. South's biggest win to date was over then-#17 Warren Central.

 

Who wins?

 

Live video coverage of the top-ranked team in the 8th (Collins) and the #3-ranked team in the region (South) begins at 7 pm Tuesday 1/14/2020 on The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN. This will be one of the biggest region matchups of the regular season.

 

CM

[ColonelMike]

Can I get a mod to add a poll, please?

 

CM

[4 Quarters]

Collins wins this one. Will be a tight game for the first half, then Collins pulls away in the second half to win by 14.

[ConverseAllStar]

South won at Collins last year 68-62. Collins should be favored here, but don’t count the Dragons and Steve Simpson out, especially at home.

[ColonelMike]

South is hitting threes at a ridiculous rate of late, averaging 13.3 makes over the last 8 games, including 19 against Ryle. If the Dragons get hot beyond the arc on their home rims and can turn this into a shootout - they're averaging 83 ppg during this eight game stretch - they could easily knock off the Titans.

 

Of course, if the outside shots aren't falling, and Dayvion McKnight and company control the glass, it could be a long night for the Dragons.

 

Opportunity for a statement game for both teams.

 

CM

[PBnoJ]

I will go with a 72-64 final. 72 wins.

[ColonelMike]

I will go with a 72-64 final. 72 wins.

 

:lol2:

[ColonelMike]

South 5-0 at home this season with wins over Central Hardin, Grant County, Holmes, Warren Central, and Bullitt East.

 

Collins is 4-0 in true road games, with wins over Bullitt East, Shelby County, Madison Central, and Spencer County.

[ColonelMike]

Pregame starts at 7 pm ET on The Pegasus Sports Network - PSN. I'll send updates on this thread as I can during the broadcast.

[ConverseAllStar]

If Collins approaches tomorrow's game like they did Friday night against Spencer, it could be a long night for the Dragons. I don't anticipate that margin of victory, however. It should be a much closer game. South's style is more difficult for teams to prepare for.

[ColonelMike]

Both teams seem to be playing their best ball of the season right now. REALLY looking forward to this one.

 

CM

[ColonelMike]

Game day!

[buttels]

Gonna be a hot time in Crestwood tonight.

[ColonelMike]

Big week for South Oldham....they get Oldham County at home on Friday... if the Dragons were to sweep this week, expect some shuffling in the rankings next Monday...

[ColonelMike]

Some random musings....

 

Star Power:

 

Collins:

Dayvion McKnight Sr. 21.3 ppg, 8.1 reb. 60.2% FG 78.6% FT

Favorite to win 8th Region POY

Marcellus Vail Sr. 15.7 ppg 35 made threes / 38.5% 83.7% FT

 

South Oldham

Luke Morrison 6'4" senior 20.6 ppg 4.6 reb 51.9% FG 84.6% FT

51 made threes / 43.6%

2019 8th Region POY

Seth Johnson senior 18.9 ppg 7.9 reb 52.4% FG 40 made threes/43.0%

 

Offense / Defense

 

Collins: 70.6 ppg - #3 in region 8

59.7 ppg allowed - #4 in region 8

 

South Oldham: 77 ppg - #1 in Region 8

61.4 ppg allowed

 

Bench

 

Collins - 7 players have played in all 16 games - nobody else has played in more than 12 games or is averaging more than 1.9 ppg; Collins has just two players in double figures in scoring

 

South Oldham South has 7 players who have played in all 17 games, but two additional players have played significant minutes in 15 and 14 games. South also has just two players who are averaging double digits in scoring.

 

Size

 

Collins The tallest player on the Collins roster is 6'3", and the Titans should have two players that size on the court a lot tonight in 6'3" Senior guard Marcellus Vail and 6'3" junior Caleb Hawley. Aaron Thompson is 6'2", but nobody else on the team is taller than 6'1". Collins will rely on speed and overall athleticism to counter any height disadvantages.

 

South Oldham Starting sophomore center Ben Michel is 6'6"; he had a strong game in last year's battle, grabbing a team-high 7 rebounds in that game. Starting guard Luke Morrison is 6'5". South brings two players off the bench that have some size; Creighton Thieneman a 6'5" senior guard and 6'6" Trey Hicks, a very mobile senior swingman.

 

Free Throws

 

Collins 74.5% on the season, #15 in the state and #3 in Region 8. Six Titans are hitting over 70% at the line and one is shooting 69.2%. Two players who have played in all 16 games are hitting below 60%, however, 77% of all free throws attempted by Collins are shot by McKnight (112 attempts - 78.6%), Vail (43 attempts - 83.7%), and Hawley (25 attempts - 76.0%), three of the Titans' very best shooters.

 

South Oldham 72.1% on the season, tied for #25 in KY. Four Dragons are hitting over 70% at the stripe, and two additional players are hitting 69.8% and 69.7%. Only one player who plays every game is hitting below 60%.

 

Three Point Shooting

 

Collins The Titans are not a bad shooting three point team, but it's not their focus by any means. 30.7% of Collins' shot attempts come from beyond the arc and the team is a very average 32.1% from outside. Three players have made 11 threes or more - Vail (35), Tyson Turner (20), and McKnight (11). All three shoot a little better than average, but nobody who has made more than one three is hitting better than Vail's 38.5%.

 

South Oldham Really? LOL. South has made more three pointers than any other team in the state (187), after setting the state record for made and attempted threes last season (they broke their own record). In addition, the Dragons shooting percentage of 41.3% beyond the arc ranks 12th in Kentucky. What is truly amazing is that - despite the fact that 49.7% of all of South's shots from the field are three pointers, the Dragons are shooting an overall shooting percentage of 49.5% from the field. (South is hitting 57.5% inside the arc) Luke Morrison has made 51 threes, 2nd-most in the region, at 43.6%. Seth Johnson has made 40, Tim Stragand 31, and Jason King 20 threes... Five Dragons have made at least 10 threes and are shooting better than 40% beyond the arc.

 

Coaching

 

Collins Chris Gaither - ninth season. Only the second coach in the history of Collins HS, took over in the school's second season. 7 winning seasons to date out of 8 previous seasons; 7 twenty-win seasons; 4 district championships; 4 district runner-up finishes (the Titans have never missed the regional tournament), 2 region titles (2015 and 2017) and 1 region runner-up finish (2012). Record: 193-85 .694 Defensive-minded coach

 

South Oldham - Steve Simpson, 20th season. Winningest coach in SOHS history, has led the Dragons to their best records and all of their regional titles. Second-longest-tenured coach in the 8th region behind Jon Jones of Gallatin County. 4 district titles / 12 district runner-up finishes. 3 Region titles (2013, 2014, and 2016) / 2 Region runner-up finishes - Simpson has taken SOHS to the region finals in five of the last seven seasons. Over the last 10 seasons, Simpson has coached SOHS to 7 twenty-win seasons. Offensively-minded first and foremost, Simpson's 2019 team led the state of Kentucky in scoring at 81 ppg and leads the region this year at 77 ppg. Overall record: 379-204 .650

 

Collins - South Oldham all-time series record:

 

The series is tied, 6-6. South Oldham won the most recent meeting, defeating Collins, 68-62 last year in Shelbyville. Luke Morrison had 25 for South and Dayvion McKnight had 25 for Collins. Rebounds were nearly even (Collins +2) and both teams were 10 of 14 at the stripe. South out-shot Collins from the floor.

 

The two teams did not meet in Collins' first year of existence (2010-11), but have played every year since. In 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016, they met twice - once in the regular season and once in the region tournament. Since losing to the Titans in 2012 in the 8th Region tourney by six, South has won the last three meetings to hold a 3-1 edge in post-season play.

 

Nine of twelve games have been decided by six points or less. Collins won with the largest margin of victory; a 19 point win in 2015. The Titans also won the regular season matchup in 2014 by 18 points, only to lose in the region to South by one.

 

South Oldham's largest victory margin came in 2016, the only season when one of the teams won both the regular season and the region tournament game. South's margin was +16 in the regular season matchup that year.

 

Just some idle thoughts on a Tuesday as the game approaches....

 

CM

Edited January 14, 2020 by ColonelMike