Probably a typo, but Pike County Central is 7-2, not 9-0. Let's see if we can predict Beechwood and Breathitt County.

 

If one wins and the other loses, then whoever wins should finish ahead of the other.

 

If both lose, Breathitt's chances of passing Beechwood are better than if both win.

 

Factor 1 = Winning Percentage (WP)

 

Beechwood currently 0.675; NCC win value 0.8698; Final WP = 0.695

 

Breathitt currently 1.081; PCC win value 1.1499; Final WP = 1.088

 

Beechwood actually gains more points in WP by beating NCC. That doesn't sound like it should be right but I double checked my numbers. I think I am right. The reason is Beechwood only has 5 wins and that win value from beating NCC has a bigger impact on their WP than the win value Breathitt gets from beating PCC.

 

Beechwood gets a 0.1948 boost to their WP value which raises their WP by 0.02.

 

Breathitt gets a 0.0689 boost to their WP value which raises their WP by 0.007.

 

End result if both win is Beechwood's win increase their WP by 0.013 more than Breathitt's.

 

Factor 2 - Opponents WP (OWP)

 

This is too difficult to calculate. The one thing we can look at is will each teams opponents get a win.

 

Two of Breathitt's opponents are OPEN this week so no point gains there. Two of Breathitt's opponents are playing each other, so no points gain from one of them. Looking at the rest of Breathitt's opponents. The other 4 opponents all have games that are tossups.

 

Two of Beechwood's opponents are OPEN this week also - no points. Two of Beechwoods' opponents play each other so no points from one. The other 4 opponents all have tossup games. So this all looks very similar to Breathitt and makes it impossible to predict RPI impact. Breathitt's OWP is so low though that every win by one of their opponents will have a much bigger boost to their RPI than wins by Beechwood opponents. We will give Breathitt an advantage in this category.

 

Factor 3 - Opponents Opponents WP (OOWP)

 

I am not even going to attempt to predict this. All I will say here Beechwood's opponents are playing better opponents than Breathitt's. That gives Beechwood the advantage here.

 

Conclusion

 

If both win, I don't think there is much chance at all for Breathitt to overtake Beechwood. The only hope for Breathitt is all of Beechwood's opponents lose this week and all of Breathitt's win. Then Breathitt might get enough of a boost in OWP to outweigh the boost Beechwood will get in WP and OOWP.

 

Are we having fun? Is all this RPI stuff good or bad?

 

Awesome post. Love the back and forth on this today, really helped crystallize some of this RPI business.

 

Personally, while I see the flaws in the RPI that many are complaining about, I really like it. I like that it gives us a clear cut ranking every week to work with and that it really rewards the top teams in the later rounds of the playoffs, which, I think, is the way it should be.

 

I'm in full support of continuing the RPI...just continuing - and kudos to the KHSAA for doing this - evolving and improving it as we go.

Awesome post. Love the back and forth on this today, really helped crystallize some of this RPI business.

 

Personally, while I see the flaws in the RPI that many are complaining about, I really like it. I like that it gives us a clear cut ranking every week to work with and that it really rewards the top teams in the later rounds of the playoffs, which, I think, is the way it should be.

 

I'm in full support of continuing the RPI...just continuing - and kudos to the KHSAA for doing this - evolving and improving it as we go.

 

I'm good with RPI also. We still have one week left. Let's see what it looks like next week after all the data is in. I think the next tweak is reduce the 15% bonus for beating bigger class teams to 10%.

Probably a typo, but Pike County Central is 7-2, not 9-0. Let's see if we can predict Beechwood and Breathitt County.

 

If one wins and the other loses, then whoever wins should finish ahead of the other.

 

If both lose, Breathitt's chances of passing Beechwood are better than if both win.

 

Factor 1 = Winning Percentage (WP)

 

Beechwood currently 0.675; NCC win value 0.8698; Final WP = 0.695

 

Breathitt currently 1.081; PCC win value 1.1499; Final WP = 1.088

 

 

 

Are we having fun? Is all this RPI stuff good or bad?

 

Got to admit that this WP calculation pickup by BW playing down shocked me versus Breathitt's which was playing up. Good work. Your observation on the OWP and OOWP also appears accurate. Not sure I am correct, but thinking the ending out of state game SK has could dispropotionately impact BW's OOWP. No wonder my fingers are hurting.....couple hundred games calculated on my slide rule make an old guys fingers cramp.

I just can't see Beechwood losing or being challenged too much by NCC (7-2). Breathitt - on the other hand - could have their hands full with AAA Pike County Central (7-2).

 

My guess is - barring something unforeseen - Beechwood ends up just slightly ahead of Breathitt in final RPI standings. Unfortunately, for the Ft. Mitchell faithful, based on eventual possible fourth round playoff matchups, the preferred slot would be Breathitt ahead of Beechwood.

 

Again, all of this is speculative until the games are played, but it looks like the higher of Beechwood/Breathitt will be taking the trip to a red-hot Mayfield in week four.

Breathitt Co will win easily this weekend.

Breathitt Co will win easily this weekend.

 

Just not knowledgeable about this part of state. What are your reasons for feeling so strongly about Breathitt over PCC? Their record has been achieved against a pretty weak schedule.

Just not knowledgeable about this part of state. What are your reasons for feeling so strongly about Breathitt over PCC? Their record has been achieved against a pretty weak schedule.

I keep up with Eastern Ky teams, Breathitt Co wins this game by 28-35 pts.