What part of what I said was incorrect? Don't give the song and dance about having to beat Trinity every year. The last time I checked the winner of Region 1 would have to beat Male or X.

 

In the past, the NKY 4A schools did not have the chance to play WKY 4A schools due to them being aligned in the first three rounds of the playoffs with a Louisville district. This was the first time that the NKY teams had the chance to meet up with any of these teams, but as you said this is a down year for WKY and I guess most years NKY teams would not have been able to match up with these teams. The guru made a comment about Ryle's margin of victory the past two weeks speaks volumes for the talent in the 4A schools in this year, but you gave the "song and dance" that it was due to down year in WKY.

The argument of Trinity having an advantage in the playoff draw is silly. Sorry H, but to be the best, you have to beat the best. Just because St.X and Male are in the same district is not an excuse as to why neither the Tigers or Dawgs get it done. For a long period of time in the 80's, it was Trinity's district that was tougher, being they had Ballard (Redman as coach) and Waggener (Redman as coach), but oddly enough, we still won 5 titles in the 80's. You play who's in front of you and you beat them. Just because X and Males district is stronger, is NOT an excuse for why they cant win. Playing better teams makes you better, right? :sssh:

 

We'll just have to disagree, I guess. The argument I'm making is that by not having to play both X and Male to win a title, Trinity has had an easier road to winning championships than X or Male. I think even most Trinity faithful would expect much tougher games in the playoffs from X and Male than from any other 4A teams in the state. By tougher I mean there would be a much lower probability of a win. Multiply those probabilities together, and the result is a much better probability of getting through all five games without a loss. If you have never had a mathematical probability class, I will explain it for you.

 

Example:

 

Let's say the probability that T will beat X or H is 0.5 (50%). We can argue about what the exact number is, but the point is that this number is significantly lower than for other teams. Let's say the probability that T will beat another team is, on average 90% (first round games would be higher, later round games would be lower, but still much better than beating X or H).

 

Probability of winning five games in the playoffs without playing either X or H until the finals:

 

0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.50 = 0.328 = 33%

 

Probability of winning five games in the playoffs including playing both X and H

 

0.90 x 0.90 x 0.50 x 0.90 x 0.50 = 0.182 = 18%

 

So, you can see that by having to play both of the other two members of the Big 3 instead of just one in the final, your chances of winning the whole thing drop from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5. Over time (20 years, let's say) that's a pretty big advantage in Trinity's favor.

In the past, the NKY 4A schools did not have the chance to play WKY 4A schools due to them being aligned in the first three rounds of the playoffs with a Louisville district. This was the first time that the NKY teams had the chance to meet up with any of these teams, but as you said this is a down year for WKY and I guess most years NKY teams would not have been able to match up with these teams. The guru made a comment about Ryle's margin of victory the past two weeks speaks volumes for the talent in the 4A schools in this year, but you gave the "song and dance" that it was due to down year in WKY.

I was not giving a song and dance but only stating that in no way can you say that NKY football is the class of 4A outside of Louisville just based on what has happened this year. Is Dixie Heights automatically better then Trinity just because they beat them one year? NO, they aren't. Also, no where did I say most years NKY teams would not be able to match up with WKY. Quit being so sensitive. I would say some years WKY football is above NKY and other years, like this year, NKY is above WKY.

 

I guess that I would have to agree with Guru's original statement that Ryle's wins over Meade and Henderson would have to speak volumes for 4A in WKY.

I would have been very happy to see NKY & WKY champs match up in any year since 1997. I think WKY wins the majority. But the future may be with NKY.

94 Camel you could not kill a duck if it landed on your gun barrel....... HAha

 

Example:

 

Let's say the probability that T will beat X or H is 0.5 (50%). We can argue about what the exact number is, but the point is that this number is significantly lower than for other teams. Let's say the probability that T will beat another team is, on average 90% (first round games would be higher, later round games would be lower, but still much better than beating X or H).

 

Probability of winning five games in the playoffs without playing either X or H until the finals:

 

0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.90 x 0.50 = 0.328 = 33%

 

Probability of winning five games in the playoffs including playing both X and H

 

0.90 x 0.90 x 0.50 x 0.90 x 0.50 = 0.182 = 18%

 

So, you can see that by having to play both of the other two members of the Big 3 instead of just one in the final, your chances of winning the whole thing drop from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5. Over time (20 years, let's say) that's a pretty big advantage in Trinity's favor.

 

Except that in the third round eithe X or H must win if they are playing each other. In this decade, Trinity has won more than X and H combined. Using your example, the chances of X or H (either one) winning is

 

.9 x .9 x 1. x .9 x .5 or 36. 5 percent. What has happened thus far in this decade is that X and H have combined to win 2 of 6 or 33 percent and Trinity has won 4 of 6 or 67 percent. It isn't because of X and H being in the same bracket. It is because Trinity has had better teams.

Except that in the third round eithe X or H must win if they are playing each other. In this decade, Trinity has won more than X and H combined. Using your example, the chances of X or H (either one) winning is

 

.9 x .9 x 1. x .9 x .5 or 36. 5 percent. What has happened thus far in this decade is that X and H have combined to win 2 of 6 or 33 percent and Trinity has won 4 of 6 or 67 percent. It isn't because of X and H being in the same bracket. It is because Trinity has had better teams.

 

It's fair to say that over the last seven years, Trinity has had slightly better teams (all games have been very close, with the exceptions of 2000 and 2001, which cancel out). However, since 1987 when the most recent playoff alignment was initiated, with Trinity on one side of the bracket and X and H on the other, T has won eight and X and H combined have combined to win eight.

 

I don't see how you can credibly claim that this playoff arrangement doesn't help the Rocks. I bet you're glad you didn't have to play X the week before Male this year.

I don't see how you can credibly claim that this playoff arrangement doesn't help the Rocks. I bet you're glad you didn't have to play X the week before Male this year.

 

No H, the Rocks had to play Male before Henry Clay this year. IMO Henry Clay would have been Male this year. Easier road, who's buying this argument? You have to play the game and the best team wins, period. No one from X or Male have complained about injuires in their quest to the championship game in the past few years.

94 camel u could not kill a duck if it landed on your gun barrel....... HAha

Sure I could, I would kill it with my knife.

No H, the Rocks had to play Male before Henry Clay this year. IMO Henry Clay would have been Male this year. Easier road, who's buying this argument? You have to play the game and the best team wins, period. No one from X or Male have complained about injuires in their quest to the championship game in the past few years.

 

That's a relatively simplistic argument. I guess there isn't any such thing as a favorable draw after all.

No H, the Rocks had to play Male before Henry Clay this year. IMO Henry Clay would have been Male this year. Easier road, who's buying this argument? You have to play the game and the best team wins, period. No one from X or Male have complained about injuires in their quest to the championship game in the past few years.

 

When Team A puts everything they've got on the field to beat a very good team there is a major emotional and physical drain that occurs. Then when Team A turns around and plays a 2nd very good team the following week, the odds are not in Team A’s favor of a win in the 2nd game.

 

Two (2) prime examples:

1) Louisville beats West Virginia; turns around 1 week later and loses to Rutgers. :madman:

 

2) Rutgers beats Louisville; turns around 10 days later and loses to Cincinnati.:devil:

 

Versus Team B who plays a much lesser opponent first then turns around and plays a very good team the following week, Team B's odds are much higher of coming away with a win then is Team A's.

 

This will never change as long as there is a "BIG 3". This is the way it is going to be until there is a consistent addition on the other side of the bracket to create a "BIG 4". Sure Ballard has been there on occasion, but not with any degree of consistency.

 

QB, you'd be arguing the other side if Trinity was on one side with X or H; and X or H were on the opposing side by themselves, you know you would. :lol:

 

Does the 6A arrangement address this in any way next year?

 

BTW, You're dreamin' on the HC thing.:sssh: