October 25, 20178 yr A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Nicaragua, Honduras, and the adjacent waters. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system for the next day or so. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized later this week as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will likely prevent further development by Sunday. I'll be keeping an eye on this for next week. there's around a 40% chance of cyclonic development from this system in the next 5 days,.
October 26, 20178 yr Author @nWo, remind me what the thread title stands for? In meteorology, invest is short for investigative area. That means that the NHC is watching an area for tropical cyclone development. The letter designates what area of the world the system is located. L is in the Atlantic Ocean this includes the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. The number 90 series is used. Starting at 90 then goes to 99. It starts over once it gets to 99.
October 27, 20178 yr Author Chances have increased to 60% for cyclonic development of Invest 93L in the next 48 hrs. I will post a more detailed update later today. Those with interests in southern and western Florida and others along the Gulf Coast should start keeping an eye on this system.
October 27, 20178 yr Going to Orlando on 11/2 through 11/5 for business. Really??? Two years in a row? Flights were cancelled last year at this time.
October 27, 20178 yr Author At 2 pm An Air Ford Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft was en route to investigate this system. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through both the 48 hour and 5-day outlooks are now high at 80%. The Canadian GDPS Model has this disturbance as at least a tropical storm and grazing south Florida and the Florida Keys. If it forms into a tropical storm its name will be Philippe.
October 27, 20178 yr Author Going to Orlando on 11/2 through 11/5 for business. Really??? Two years in a row? Flights were cancelled last year at this time. I'm going to be in West Palm 11/1 through 11/6. Af of now all indications are this system should clear the Florida area by then. I will be keeping an eye on it.
October 27, 20178 yr Author Invest 93L could soon become Tropical Cyclone 18. A faster northward motion is expected to begin tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36hours.Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly to the south of the center.
October 28, 20178 yr Author At 500 AM EDT, The system is moving faster toward the north near 10 mph. An additional acceleration toward the north-northeast and northeast is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
October 28, 20178 yr Author From the National Hurricane Center 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28, 2017...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA......TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... At 1100 AM EDT, the center of Tropical DepressionEighteen was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radars fromCuba and Grand Cayman near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 82.9West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 22mph and this motion is expected to continue today. Amotion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed isexpected to begin tonight and continue through Sunday. On theforecast track, the center will move across west-central Cuba thisafternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across thenorthwestern Bahamas Sunday morning.Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, andthe depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
October 28, 20178 yr Author Tropical Depression 18 has strengthed into a tropical storm and is now called Philippe. At 500 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located by surface observations, radar data, and satellite images near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 82.6 West. Philippe is moving towards the north near 29 mph and this motion is expected to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early Sunday morning. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday and continuing into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move off of the northern coast of Cuba and into the Straits of Florida this evening and move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A wind gust of 37mph was recently reported at Key West InternationalAirport.
October 29, 20178 yr Well, this storm didn't stick around long. Philippe is already 180 miles off the east coast of Florida, out in the Atlantic, heading for the Bahamas.
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