Just a reminder what NOAA put out in August.

 

Today NOAA issued the scheduled update for its 2017 hurricane season outlook. Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season, and they increased the predicted number of named storms and major hurricanes. The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010.

Early-season storms one indicator of active Atlantic hurricane season ahead | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

 

From the National Hurricane Center

 

At 200 AM, the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 61.9 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern CaribbeanSea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday.Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased only slightly, near 155 mph with higher gusts. Maria is a category 4hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Mariah is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Just want to give a quick update. So far all of the models have shown Maria not making landfall in the continental US. So I will update again if there are any changes.

Well, my post from this morning may have been a little premature. The latest runs are starting to brink Maria's track a bit further west now. So I'll be back watching it more closely.

A friend from high school posted on Facebook today that she had finally heard from her oldest daughter who lives on St Croix and all were oK at her home. I cannot even imagine the utter horror of the last few weeks my friend has had to endure, knowing her daughter is in danger, then finding out she's safe, only to lose touch again a week later due to Maria.

Just a quick update. The Canadian/GDPS was showing Maria making landfall in North Carolina. This is the first model that I've seen to show Maria coming ashore in the continuous US. Now this doesn't mean it will but the more westerly track that I saw yesterday maybe in the works. I'll update later this evening.

Can't say enough what a great resource we have here on BGP with @nWo! Thank you for all of your updates and everything you do for us! @theguru - send that man some gear or something! :thumb:

Can't say enough what a great resource we have here on BGP with @nWo! Thank you for all of your updates and everything you do for us! @theguru - send that man some gear or something! :thumb:

Thank you for the compliments. It is my pleasure I do it through the consent of theguru.

I'm still seeing a slight westwardly track forming for Maria There is still a chance of it missing the US entirely. As of now, I think Florida can rest easy. I will update in the morning.

 

Update from NHC

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-SimpsonHurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

Edited September 21, 20179 yr by nWo

Those with interests from about North Carolina northward should be watching Maria closely. There seems to be a definite westward tilt to the track of Hurricane Maria. How far west it will come is still too early to tell. I'll update later today.

The latest GFS and Canadian/GDPS have Maria taking an even more westerly track than this mornings runs next week that could bring it closer to the US east coast. If this trend continues those along the east coast from around South Carolina northward should start paying close attention to this hurricane.

Saturday morning update:

 

The more westerly track for Maria is still showing up in the GFS and Candadian/GDPS models. The NHC has issued their latest Warnings/Cone map and it is starting to show the Maria moving closer to the US. The present information is showing Maria may hit the east coast of North Carolina with a glancing blow then move back over the Atlantic. We are still about 4 days away from possible landfall so I'll be keeping a close eye on it.

 

The 11 am update from the National Hurricane Center is confirming my assessment that those from North Carolina northward should keep a close eye on Maria. It is looking more and more like Maria will make some type of landfall on the US east coast.

Now a tropical storm, Maria could be sitting off the coast of Ireland, Monday morning.

Thank goodness we dodged that bullet!