October 2, 20169 yr Yep we just had a group fly out for Haiti yesterday morning. This definitely could affect them. I have friends in Haiti who arrived about that same time.
October 3, 20169 yr Author Monday morning update: Those in Florida and along the east coast of the United States should pay close attention to the possible track of Hurricane Matthew. As of this morning it is still a Cat. 4 hurricane. It also have the potential to be a life threatening storm. The track is still uncertain and could quite possibly miss the U.S. entirely but effects from this hurricane will still affect parts of the east coast. 2 am EDT Saturday
October 3, 20169 yr Author Picture of Hurricane Matthew from hurricane hunter aircraft before it entered the eye wall.
October 3, 20169 yr Author All of my family in West Palm Beach never leave they ride the storms out. For what it is worth. In my humble opinion they should really start paying attention to this storm. I just looked at the latest 12z NAM run. At the very end of the run it shows Matthew much closer to the cost of Florida than this morning. Very close to West Palm Beach. Of course it could change between now and the end of the week.
October 3, 20169 yr For what it is worth. In my humble opinion they should really start paying attention to this storm. I just looked at the latest 12z NAM run. At the very end of the run it shows Matthew much closer to the cost of Florida than this morning. Very close to West Palm Beach. Of course it could change between now and the end of the week. Just do your job and keep it away from Hilton Head. You haven't let me down yet!
October 3, 20169 yr Author Just do your job and keep it away from Hilton Head. You haven't let me down yet! :thumb: I'm sorry though I may not be able to help you this time. The GFS and NAM models both are now showing the hurricane closer to the coast. This is the first time the GFS is showing the Hurricane Matthew making landfall sometime Saturday morning. It looks like around the Myrtle Beach, S.C. area. Then travel along the coast of North Carolina. As always things could chance between now. For now it looks to just skirt the coast of Florida and S.E. Georgia. I'll post an update later this evening. 2 am EDT Saturday Morning. 8 am EDT Saturday Morning
October 3, 20169 yr This Navy run does not look good. https://s12.postimg.org/bc3ckwhdp/100f8408_8914_4602_95c9_783e8dce0530.gif
October 3, 20169 yr Another current model - right up the east coast of Florida. Looks like all of Florida should be watching but especially the eastern side. Link to animated model (use 6 day on right): Tropical Guidance Edited October 3, 20169 yr by Bluegrasscard updated link
October 3, 20169 yr Author This Navy run does not look good. https://s12.postimg.org/bc3ckwhdp/100f8408_8914_4602_95c9_783e8dce0530.gif I wouldn't count on this model. Nothing I've seen has shown anything like this so far.
October 3, 20169 yr Author Another current model - right up the east coast of Florida. Looks like all of Florida should be watching but especially the eastern side. Link to animated model (use 6 day on right): Tropical Guidance This model is pretty much the GFS Model that I use for long rang forecasting.
October 4, 20169 yr I wouldn't count on this model. Nothing I've seen has shown anything like this so far. Yes. Going straight up the state would be bad but unlikely. The models are fairly tight on the northward movement but what will really steer this thing? Does it just meander north or something going to push or keep it out east?
October 4, 20169 yr Author Yes. Going straight up the state would be bad but unlikely. The models are fairly tight on the northward movement but what will really steer this thing? Does it just meander north or something going to push or keep it out east? There is a trough heading to the east coast that should keep Matthew from coming too far west. This trough is now crossing the country and is causing the severe weather in the Midwest. Edited October 4, 20169 yr by nWo
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