We will do this on a percentage scale

 

0%= No Chance

50%= Co-Favorite In Their Class

100%= Unanimous Favorite In Their Class.

 

Please note 100% is not saying a team has a 100% Chance of winning the title, it is just they are clear and away the team everyone else is chasing and losing the title to anyone will be viewed as a major upset.

 

 

 

2015 1A Runner-Up Beechwood= 20%

This time last season I think most were ready to place a Hold For Release order at the trophy shop for Beechwood's 2015 Rings. Clear of Mayfield and loaded with skill talent and experience many though of the Tigers as the unanimous favorite. 2016 is a different story all together. Beechwood must replace a healthy part of their production and starters. With that said, Class 1A isn't exactly littered with powerhouse teams in 2016 who return the house. Beechwood is a solid #3 pick behind Pikeville and Russellville on similar footing as teams like Paintsville and Raceland.

 

2015 2A Runner-Up Newport Central Catholic= 15%

NewCath, unlike Beechwood, does have a nice contingency of talent returning. The Breds have a favorable Semi-State at hand as well, but the percentage remains low because of what will await them coming out of the West. Mayfield made an emphatic entrance to 2A and is absolutely loaded making them the team to beat. NewCath will enter in the mix with the impressive teams in the second tier chasing Mayfield, other teams such as DeSales, CAL, Danville, and OCath join them.

 

2015 3A Runner-Up Lexington Catholic= 15%

Similar to NewCath, the Knights of Lexington Catholic returns some nice experience and some key contributors held over from their 2015 push. Also much like NewCath, staring at them on at the top of the mountain is a defending Champion who is loaded for bear. LexCath has as good of a shot coming out of the West as anyone..but the problem is there are about 4 or 5 teams with the same chances.

 

2015 4A Runner-Up Johnson Central= 20%

Johnson Central was no match for the buzzsaw known as South Warren, but SW has some glaring holes and questions that need answered. The Eagles return a very strong core and have a short list of teams that should be able to threaten them in the East. With that said, even with the questions to be answered the team from Warren County still is a pretty clear pace setter entering this season.

 

2015 5A Runner-Up Pulaski County= 5%

No Runner-Up was decimated by graduation more than the Maroons. They lost their All-World QB and the vast majority of Starters from a Senior Class that brought Pulaski to unprecedented heights. The only apparent hold over is WR Jake Johnson, who is poised to cap of a record career. The glimmer of hope for Pulaski? 5A East isn't exactly Murderer's Row with Highlands going through a lull. The bad news? There is slim to no chance of beating Bowling Green.

 

2016 6A Runner-Up Lafayette= 40%

If a Fayette County school is going to get over the hump and win the big school title, 2016 Lafayette may be the best shot. A team loaded with major D-1 talent and ripe with experience from their 2015 run, the Generals have depth and skill sets nearly any team in KY from trade for. The hurdle though is the same one that has tripped up many a great 6A team, the Big 3 of Louisville. Though Defending Champs Male expect to take a step back, waiting to step up are traditional superpowers Trinity and St. Xavier. Lafayette cannot be labeled as the 6A Favorite, but it is safe to say they aren't far from it.

Great thread.

Didn't realize Lafayette had that much coming back.

Male and Trinity defeated Lafayette last year by a combined score of 111 - 28. Each game was a total blow out. Can Lafayette be expected to realistically make up that much ground in one year and beat Male, Trinity or for that matter St. X?

Male and Trinity defeated Lafayette last year by a combined score of 111 - 28. Each game was a total blow out. Can Lafayette be expected to realistically make up that much ground in one year and beat Male, Trinity or for that matter St. X?

 

No. However, the bracketing this season shows if Lafayette wins their district they'd have Simon Kenton at home in the region final and Scott County/Cooper/Conner/Ryle/Henry Clay at home in the semifinals. They (or any other previously listed) won't have to play a Louisville team until the state finals.

We will do this on a percentage scale

 

0%= No Chance

50%= Co-Favorite In Their Class

100%= Unanimous Favorite In Their Class.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note 100% is not saying a team has a 100% Chance of winning the title, it is just they are clear and away the team everyone else is chasing and losing the title to anyone will be viewed as a major upset.

 

 

 

2015 1A Runner-Up Beechwood= 20%

This time last season I think most were ready to place a Hold For Release order at the trophy shop for Beechwood's 2015 Rings. Clear of Mayfield and loaded with skill talent and experience many though of the Tigers as the unanimous favorite. 2016 is a different story all together. Beechwood must replace a healthy part of their production and starters. With that said, Class 1A isn't exactly littered with powerhouse teams in 2016 who return the house. Beechwood is a solid #3 pick behind Pikeville and Russellville on similar footing as teams like Paintsville and Raceland.

 

2015 2A Runner-Up Newport Central Catholic= 15%

NewCath, unlike Beechwood, does have a nice contingency of talent returning. The Breds have a favorable Semi-State at hand as well, but the percentage remains low because of what will await them coming out of the West. Mayfield made an emphatic entrance to 2A and is absolutely loaded making them the team to beat. NewCath will enter in the mix with the impressive teams in the second tier chasing Mayfield, other teams such as DeSales, CAL, Danville, and OCath join them.

 

2015 3A Runner-Up Lexington Catholic= 15%

Similar to NewCath, the Knights of Lexington Catholic returns some nice experience and some key contributors held over from their 2015 push. Also much like NewCath, staring at them on at the top of the mountain is a defending Champion who is loaded for bear. LexCath has as good of a shot coming out of the West as anyone..but the problem is there are about 4 or 5 teams with the same chances.

 

2015 4A Runner-Up Johnson Central= 20%

Johnson Central was no match for the buzzsaw known as South Warren, but SW has some glaring holes and questions that need answered. The Eagles return a very strong core and have a short list of teams that should be able to threaten them in the East. With that said, even with the questions to be answered the team from Warren County still is a pretty clear pace setter entering this season.

 

2015 5A Runner-Up Pulaski County= 5%

No Runner-Up was decimated by graduation more than the Maroons. They lost their All-World QB and the vast majority of Starters from a Senior Class that brought Pulaski to unprecedented heights. The only apparent hold over is WR Jake Johnson, who is poised to cap of a record career. The glimmer of hope for Pulaski? 5A East isn't exactly Murderer's Row with Highlands going through a lull. The bad news? There is slim to no chance of beating Bowling Green.

 

2016 6A Runner-Up Lafayette= 40%

If a Fayette County school is going to get over the hump and win the big school title, 2016 Lafayette may be the best shot. A team loaded with major D-1 talent and ripe with experience from their 2015 run, the Generals have depth and skill sets nearly any team in KY from trade for. The hurdle though is the same one that has tripped up many a great 6A team, the Big 3 of Louisville. Though Defending Champs Male expect to take a step back, waiting to step up are traditional superpowers Trinity and St. Xavier. Lafayette cannot be labeled as the 6A Favorite, but it is safe to say they aren't far from it.

 

 

Beechwood I give them a 40% chance to win it in 2016.

 

 

New Cath I give them a 40% chance as well to win it in 2016.

 

Lex Cath I give them 30 percent chance.

 

Johnson Central I give a 40 percent chance.

 

Pulaski Co I will give them a 10 percent chance.

 

Lafayette will get a 15 percent chance from me.

No. However, the bracketing this season shows if Lafayette wins their district they'd have Simon Kenton at home in the region final and Scott County/Cooper/Conner/Ryle/Henry Clay at home in the semifinals. They (or any other previously listed) won't have to play a Louisville team until the state finals.

 

At which point any delusions of championships evaporate, just like last year.

No. However, the bracketing this season shows if Lafayette wins their district they'd have Simon Kenton at home in the region final and Scott County/Cooper/Conner/Ryle/Henry Clay at home in the semifinals. They (or any other previously listed) won't have to play a Louisville team until the state finals.

 

At which point any delusions of championships evaporate, just like last year. Sorry if that sounds bad but history has shown that when a team from outside Louisville plays a Louisville team in the championship game it's usually not close.

At which point any delusions of championships evaporate, just like last year. Sorry if that sounds bad but history has shown that when a team from outside Louisville plays a Louisville team in the championship game it's usually not close.

 

You are exactly right

2016 6A Runner-Up Lafayette= 40%

If a Fayette County school is going to get over the hump and win the big school title, 2016 Lafayette may be the best shot. A team loaded with major D-1 talent and ripe with experience from their 2015 run, the Generals have depth and skill sets nearly any team in KY from trade for. The hurdle though is the same one that has tripped up many a great 6A team, the Big 3 of Louisville. Though Defending Champs Male expect to take a step back, waiting to step up are traditional superpowers Trinity and St. Xavier. Lafayette cannot be labeled as the 6A Favorite, but it is safe to say they aren't far from it.

 

Too high for Lafayette, I'd give them 25%. They were solidly beaten by Trinity and Male. All of their scores and big plays relied on the pure athleticism of their D1 athletes. Until the rest of the team is capable of supporting those talented few, they won't have much luck. Even with Male losing so much, I have a hard time seeing Lafayette ranked above them in the pre-season.