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Wednesday Severe Weather outlook 12/23/15


nWo

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As of this morning there is now a significant risk of severe weather on Wednesday for parts of southcentral KY. Especially around the Bowling Green area. This is area extends back towards the west to around the Land Between the Lake area. This area is in an enhanced area for severe weather.

 

The rest of Kentucky from around the I-75 corridor back towards the west are in a slight risk area for strong to severe storms. East of I-75 is in an marginal risk area.

 

The timing is unsure at this time but I would start preparing today espicially if you are in the ehance chance area. I will be notifiying my son and daughter who live in Bowling Green this morning.

 

Updates will come as soon as possible throughout the day today. If the trend continues I will go into severe weather alert mode either this evening or on Wednesday morning.

 

Categorical map

 

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Probabilistic map

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Any idea what the highest recorded temperature for the first day of winter in Kentucky is?
I couldn't find that out at the moment but according to the Kentucky Climate Center the highest recorded temp in December was 87 in Pikeville in 1982.
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Afternoon update:

 

The enhance area has been enlarged to now include all of WKY. The main area of concern is west of I-65 and south of Evansville, IN.

 

A slight risk area encompasses the rest of Kentucky from the I-75 corridor back towards the west. East of I-75 Kentucky is in a marginal risk area.

 

As of now the timing looks to be Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.

 

 

Depending on the evening update I may go into severe weather alert mode later today.

 

This is an ongoing developing situation and everyone should monitor the weather in their area.

 

 

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

 

day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

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Here's my outlook from around the first week in November.

 

First part of Winter looks to be warm with average precipitation. We shouldn't see the effects of the El Nino to around December. So I'm still looking at January-February period for most of our winter precip to fall. Just off the top of my head the outlooks I used are showing a gradual shift northward of the cold and precipitation from the south towards our area. Where earlier they were showing us being warmer and below average precip. My thinking as of now is we may see some icing in January. 1 maybe 2 ice events. The bottom looks to fall out of the thermometer in February. That is when, I think most of the snow will fall.

 

I'll update this outlook as soon as any new info comes in.

 

This looks to be holding true. I'm looking for things to start turning towards the wintry side around the end of December. That is temperature wise. So I'm monitoring that time period as the long range outlooks are issued.

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Evening update:

 

The greatest area of concern for possible severe weather on Wednesday is now from the I-65 corridor back towards the west. This includes Louisville, Owensboro, Elizabethtown, Bowling Green, Paducah, Mayfield an Hopkinsville. This is from Wednesday aftenoon into the overnight hours.

 

Western Kentucky looks to really be under the gun tomorrow.

 

I'll update in the morning. More than likely I'll go into Severe Weather Alert then.

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