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Road to Kentucky Derby 141

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As I'm currently ignoring the MASSIVE stack of work on my desk and looking through the results of last weekend's Derby Futures pool, I figured it was as good a time as any to get this started.

 

Derby Futures Pool 2

 

There's still one more futures pool at the end of February. I don't usually mess around with betting there but it's fun to look at.

 

Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red has the shortest odds of any specific horse at 9-1. Right behind him are FrontRunner Stakes and Del Mar Futurity winner American Pharaoh (10-1) and last weekend's Robert B. Lewis winner, Dortmund (10-1). "Rest of Field" leads the betting at 5-2.

 

Caught both the prep races last Saturday: the Lewis and the Withers Stakes. Both fun. Dortmund's run was really impressive down the stretch and I can see why the bettors liked him.

 

Texas Red has been hurt and so hasn't raced but once since the BC Juvenile, finishing second in a sprint prep. The Desormeaux brothers say they're targeting the Santa Anita Derby.

 

Not this weekend but the next is always when I feel like the prep season is in full swing when the Risen Star and Fountain of Youth will run. (Churchill has now officially set this in stone with those two being the first 50-point qualifying races.)

 

Can't wait for the rest of the races and the Derby.

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This horse, Far From Over, will be an interesting one to watch. Sire is Blame and Mare is Alchemist from AP Indy.

 

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This horse, Far From Over, will be an interesting one to watch. Sire is Blame and Mare is Alchemist from AP Indy.

 

 

That Withers Stakes last weekend was really fun with Far From Over coming from the back of the pack to overcome the two battling favorites. I didn't have any wagers down but you can bet a few folks made some money with the decent price on that horse combined with the favorites coming in just behind.

 

Can we assume that the horse will stay at Aqueduct and is headed toward the Wood Memorial in early April?

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FWIW, what's keeping me really interested this year in the preps is that I joined up with the Public Handicapper Preps Contest at Public Handicapper | Horse Racing Handicapping Contest.

 

Four races per week for 12 weeks including most of the Derby Preps. It's a completely free contest and is all hypothetical money but has actual cash prizes. It's kept me really interested without having to spend an arm and a leg on bets.

 

*That's not an advertisement and I have nothing to do with DRF or Public Handicapper; it's just a comment about how I'm going to follow along and play all the races leading up to the Derby.

FWIW, what's keeping me really interested this year in the preps is that I joined up with the Public Handicapper Preps Contest at Public Handicapper | Horse Racing Handicapping Contest.

 

Four races per week for 12 weeks including most of the Derby Preps. It's a completely free contest and is all hypothetical money but has actual cash prizes. It's kept me really interested without having to spend an arm and a leg on bets.

 

*That's not an advertisement and I have nothing to do with DRF or Public Handicapper; it's just a comment about how I'm going to follow along and play all the races leading up to the Derby.

 

I played the Public Handicapper contest for years, although I haven't played in recent years I found it to be fun. Only thing I didn't like is that they never offered free pp's. I am an avid contest player. Qualified for the HPWS for the first time last year and just missed by 80 cents of qualifying for the NHC this past year.

 

As a side note I belong to a Facebook group that owns yesterdays El Comino Real Derby winner Metaboss. They are pointing Metaboss to Turfway Parks Spiral Stakes on March 21. Turfway is 15 minutes from my house so if he runs I will be there.

 

Best of luck in your contest Getslow!

  • Author
I played the Public Handicapper contest for years, although I haven't played in recent years I found it to be fun. Only thing I didn't like is that they never offered free pp's. I am an avid contest player. Qualified for the HPWS for the first time last year and just missed by 80 cents of qualifying for the NHC this past year.

 

As a side note I belong to a Facebook group that owns yesterdays El Comino Real Derby winner Metaboss. They are pointing Metaboss to Turfway Parks Spiral Stakes on March 21. Turfway is 15 minutes from my house so if he runs I will be there.

 

Best of luck in your contest Getslow!

 

Thanks. It's been fun. I'm with you that it's frustrating not to get the free PPs with the contest but, I suppose you get what you pay for in a free contest. You'd think a free contest would be a fun way to get those of us who've never been contest players before interested in them in the hopes that we'll do more that require the buy-in, but I'm not running these things and no one's ever asked me. :lol2:

 

I hope Metaboss comes that close. His win yesterday propelled me pretty high up the overall rankings and I got a nice side-betting hit from him as well. I probably owe that jockey a drink. I hate that the Spiral always comes right in the middle of the NCAA tournament or I'd love to head up that way and watch him in person.

That Withers Stakes last weekend was really fun with Far From Over coming from the back of the pack to overcome the two battling favorites. I didn't have any wagers down but you can bet a few folks made some money with the decent price on that horse combined with the favorites coming in just behind.

 

Can we assume that the horse will stay at Aqueduct and is headed toward the Wood Memorial in early April?

 

I think that's a good guess....The Gotham Stakes, inner track again, in early March, then the Wood (with success) could get him the points for the Derby plus a few bucks for his troubles.

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Didn't get to see either the Risen Star or the Fountain of Youth this past weekend; just read the results. Anybody catch either of those? Was Upstart's DQ in the Fountain of Youth warranted?

Didn't get to see either the Risen Star or the Fountain of Youth this past weekend; just read the results. Anybody catch either of those? Was Upstart's DQ in the Fountain of Youth warranted?

 

I thought "no way" when I saw it live and on the replay (from a side angle). However, when they showed a replay from a head-on angle, Upstart did move out quite a bit. I thought it was a warranted DQ.

BTW, Getslow, I think you can watch replays of these preps on BloodHorse.com., if you're interested.

  • Author
I thought "no way" when I saw it live and on the replay (from a side angle). However, when they showed a replay from a head-on angle, Upstart did move out quite a bit. I thought it was a warranted DQ.

BTW, Getslow, I think you can watch replays of these preps on BloodHorse.com., if you're interested.

 

I ended up watching it during lunch. Seems warranted. One of the articles I read suggested that this is a problem for NY jocks like Ortiz going elsewhere; essentially suggesting that this type of thing happens all the time and is perfectly fine under NY rules but gets called elsewhere.

That Withers Stakes last weekend was really fun with Far From Over coming from the back of the pack to overcome the two battling favorites. I didn't have any wagers down but you can bet a few folks made some money with the decent price on that horse combined with the favorites coming in just behind.

 

Can we assume that the horse will stay at Aqueduct and is headed toward the Wood Memorial in early April?

 

Far From Over is skipping the Gotham (today) and preparing for the Wood. Good call.

 

Maybe they felt more rest was due after winning after a bad stumble at the start of the Withers.

Far From Over is skipping the Gotham (today) and preparing for the Wood. Good call.

 

Maybe they felt more rest was due after winning after a bad stumble at the start of the Withers.

 

I was very disappointed to hear earlier this week that Far From Over has a condral fracture and is off the Derby trail. He is having surgery this week in Lexington. Here's hoping for a speedy recovery. This is a horse that was developing very quickly this year, and I think had a real chance. Horse racing is a tough business.

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^ No doubt. There's seemingly been less of that than normal this year. Lots of top horses still on the trail.

 

I watched the races from Dubai Saturday morning and was really impressed with the UAE Derby winner. Don't really think he'll come over, but it'd be fun to see if he could do something in the Derby. Absolutely ran off the screen and beat the heck out of that field last weekend.

^ No doubt. There's seemingly been less of that than normal this year. Lots of top horses still on the trail.

 

I watched the races from Dubai Saturday morning and was really impressed with the UAE Derby winner. Don't really think he'll come over, but it'd be fun to see if he could do something in the Derby. Absolutely ran off the screen and beat the heck out of that field last weekend.

 

Mubtaahij. I agree...he absolutely exploded in the stretch run, and he coasted coming into the finish. He didn't set a race record, but I think if he had been pushed, we likely would have seen one.

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