October 11, 201213 yr Sorry to report....the report is 'missing one large state'. Why the Drop in Weekly Jobless Claims Is Flawed - 24/7 Wall St. "CNBC and Dow Jones have both confirmed that this latest weekly jobless claims report was missing data from one large state. Bloomberg noted that the Labor Department spokesperson said that one state accounted for most of the plunge in claims." That was a misinterpretation of the report. What the report said was that most of the drop occurred because one state that was anticipating a large increase did not in fact have that drop. The data from all states were included.
October 11, 201213 yr Author That was a misinterpretation of the report. What the report said was that most of the drop occurred because one state that was anticipating a large increase did not in fact have that drop. The data from all states were included. It was included....but that state forgot to process a bunch of forms apparently... Jobless claims plunge to four-year low - Economic Report - MarketWatch “As a result, there is an accumulation of claims that are likely submitted over a period of several weeks but not processed until the turn of the quarter. Apparently, the state in question (and it pretty much has to be California to account for anything close to 30,000) forgot to include that stockpile of unprocessed claims in their tally for this week (which is the first week of a new calendar quarter). Since the seasonal factors expected an unadjusted surge of almost 20% in the period to account for the quarterly filing pattern, failure to adhere to that pattern in the raw data (unadjusted claims were only up 8.6%) creates a big drop seasonally adjusted.” Emphasis added. It is confirmed that 'one state' accounted for the drop. If it is real then they should figure what that state is doing right (at least for one week). It seems the state in question is a mystery. If you find out the state and actual anomaly please post.
October 18, 201213 yr Author Back to (new) normal apparently. 388,000. This is the highest initial report since this has been tracked here. They are citing 'technical factors'. Not sure what that is at this point. Weekly Jobless Claims Post Huge Gain, Back to Normalized Reporting - 24/7 Wall St. From above: "The weekly claims rose by 46,000 to 388,000 but last week’s claims were revised higher to 342,000 from the prior artificially low number of 339,000. That higher revision still obviously does not include the data from the missing large state." March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000, Revision: +16,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +4,000 April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000, Revision: +10,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up 13,000, Actual - up 21,000, Revision: +8,000 April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +4,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down 27,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +3,000 May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 10,000, Actual - up 16,000, Revision: +6,000 June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down 12,000, Actual - down 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 6,000, Actual - 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +5,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000, Revision: +2,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision" +2,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +2,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000, Revision: +2,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000, Revision: +4,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000, Revision: +3,000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000, Revision: +2,000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000, Revision: +2,000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000, Revision: +3,000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000, Revision: +2,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000, Revision: +4,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +3,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000, Reported - down 16,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision: +4,000 October 4: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 369,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 October 11: Reported - 339,000, Revised - 342,000, Reported - down, Actual - ???? October 18: Reported - 388,000 Are the 'unprocessed' files from a large state still missing? It would appear so. The impact will be an artificially low 4-week moving average. In fact USA Today cites the 4-week moving average in their run of an unusually terse AP release. Unemployment benefit claims jump 46,000
October 25, 201213 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000, Revision: +16,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +4,000 April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000, Revision: +10,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up 13,000, Actual - up 21,000, Revision: +8,000 April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +4,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down 27,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +3,000 May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 10,000, Actual - up 16,000, Revision: +6,000 June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down 12,000, Actual - down 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 6,000, Actual - 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +5,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000, Revision: +2,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision" +2,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +2,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000, Revision: +2,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000, Revision: +4,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000, Revision: +3,000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000, Revision: +2,000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000, Revision: +2,000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000, Revision: +3,000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000, Revision: +2,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000, Revision: +4,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +3,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000, Reported - down 16,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision: +4,000 October 4: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 369,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 October 11: Reported - 339,000, Revised - 342,000, Reported - down, Actual - ?????, Revision: +3,000 October 18: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - up 46,000, Actual - up 50,0000 Revision: +4,000 October 25: Reported - 369,000 The spin is in full gear.... Weekly Unemployment Claims Drop Slightly - Business - The Atlantic Wire "The best one can say after such a small change is that things probably aren't getting worse at the moment. Not exactly the kind of news you hitch your wagon to." Weekly Jobless Claims Drop, Job Market Healing - Careers Articles "...giving a clearer sign that the labor market is healing after wild fluctuations in claims data at the beginning of the month. ... The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths out such volatility, rose 1,500 to a 368,000. Economists generally think a reading below 400,000 points to an increase in employment, with hiring likely to outpace layoffs." So the four week moving average moved UP and this is good news? And now 400,000 or less is a good number? If you go back you will find the exact same statement about the number 375,000. So is the media moving the the goal line or just redefining 'good' to fit the new normal?
October 31, 201213 yr Author ADP revised reporting slashes September jobs. New ADP Count Slashes Job Creation Total for September - US Business News - CNBC This is based on new reporting method that is supposed to better map to the B(L)S statistics.
November 1, 201213 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000, Revision: +16,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +4,000 April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000, Revision: +10,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up 13,000, Actual - up 21,000, Revision: +8,000 April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +4,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down 27,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +3,000 May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 10,000, Actual - up 16,000, Revision: +6,000 June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down 12,000, Actual - down 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 6,000, Actual - 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +5,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000, Revision: +2,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision" +2,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +2,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000, Revision: +2,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000, Revision: +4,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000, Revision: +3,000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000, Revision: +2,000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000, Revision: +2,000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000, Revision: +3,000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000, Revision: +2,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000, Revision: +4,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +3,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000, Reported - down 16,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision: +4,000 October 4: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 369,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 October 11: Reported - 339,000, Revised - 342,000, Reported - down, Actual - ?????, Revision: +3,000 October 18: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - up 46,000, Actual - up 50,0000 Revision: +4,000 October 25: Reported - 369,000, Revised - 372,000, Reported - down 23,000, Actual - down 20,000, Revision: +3,000 November 1: Reported - 363,000 Legend: Reported - initial number released each week Revised - updated, supposedly more accurate number released 1 week after the initial report. *** - This is a week were the increase or decrease was incorrectly reported when using the initial (Reported) value compared to the Revised value. Since these two number paired together usually generate the associated news headline. Between March and June this type of invalid reporting was common. Rarely do the news reports compare the Revised values to Revised values - a more accurate representation. Bold - This is where the Revised value was 5,000 or more than the Reported value. The last time this occurred was June 21st. 375,000 - This is a number often quoted in articles indicating this is the 'break-even' point where if numbers are below this value you would expected the reported unemployment rate to reduce. This number was quoted in an AP article a while back with no source. It has become a common, but unsourced and non-validated value. 400,000 - The same break-even value quoted last week for the first time. Again, unsourced and non-validated. Four week moving average - this value is the previous 4 weeks of REVISED numbers. So it uses the supposedly more accurate revised value and is less volatile (i.e. it swings a lot less than the week-to-week numbers). Claims for unemployment aid drop to 363,000 From the link above: "A more reliable gauge of hiring comes from the less volatile four-week moving average of claims for jobless benefits. The number dropped 1,500 to 367,250 last week, Labor said Thursday. The four-week moving average has been at about the same level for three months. When this number and the overall number stay below 375,000 for weeks in a row, it suggests that companies are hiring at a modest pace."
November 2, 201213 yr Added about 170k jobs last month. Private gained 184k. Govt jobs decreased by about 14k. Previous months revised. Added 84k more than initially reported. UE rate when up from 7.8 to 7.9. More participating. I read that 500k joined the labor force. Housing appears to be rebounding which led to a growth in construction jobs. MFG jobs up 13k.
November 2, 201213 yr I think Neil Irwin of the WaPo says it best: Neil Irwin @Neil_Irwin This report is not bad enough for Romney to make major hay over, not good enough for Obama to do end zone dance.
November 2, 201213 yr I think Neil Irwin of the WaPo says it best: Neil Irwin @Neil_Irwin This report is not bad enough for Romney to make major hay over, not good enough for Obama to do end zone dance. But I bet both of them try. :lol:
November 2, 201213 yr Author ^ - The numbers almost mimic August except in total population (that rises about 200K every month). Here are the numbers that go into the reported number at this link: Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted Politically, this is probably not giving much to either side.
November 15, 201213 yr Surprise, surprise!!!! Surprise! Jobless Claims Up 78,000 Week After Election; PA, OH Worst Hit
November 15, 201213 yr Author Surprise, surprise!!!! Surprise! Jobless Claims Up 78,000 Week After Election; PA, OH Worst Hit Ohio, Pennsylvania hit hard? NY dropped? No, no, no....its all Saaandy's fault (in best John Travolta voice)... Superstorm Sandy drives US weekly unemployment aid applications up to 439,000 - The Washington Post "Superstorm Sandy drove the number of people seeking unemployment benefits up to a seasonally adjusted 439,000 last week, the highest level in 18 months." Lets check the source: ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report "The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 3 were in Pennsylvania (+7,766), Ohio (+6,450), New Jersey (+5,675), Michigan (+2,373), and Connecticut (+1,783), while the largest decreases were in California (-8,149), New York (-2,241), Florida (-939), Georgia (-913), and Indiana (-603). " New Jersey? OK, lets blame some of the increase on Sandy and the snow storm. Lets say that accounts for 2/3 of that increase - that would be around 4,000+. Let even allocate some of Connecticuts increase to Sandy. But what about New York? It was hit hard in the city and and Long Island. New York went down. I would have expected Sandy to be hitting that state aw well. But NY went down. So there is over 70,000 increase that is NOT accounted for with Sandy.
November 21, 201213 yr Author Last weeks numbers revised upward 12,000 to 451,000. So this weeks 410,000 (initial) seems 'better'. Sandy gets the blamed and some numbers do finally show NY and NJ getting hit hard. Interestingly, California comes in 3rd with a big jump. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall | Fox Business from above: "The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smoothes out volatility, rose 9,500 to 396,250. Economists generally think a reading below 400,000 points to an increase in employment." Emphasis added. Even Fox has moved the bar of what is 'good' from 375,000 to 400,000.
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