September 8, 201214 yr As others have stated as well, Europe is a big key for what happens here as far as the economy. What can we do to get more jobs? And if we shrink the government, where are those people going to get jobs? One of the concerns with the people in Occupy was jobs, but people just looked at them and said "get a job". What jobs? If the rate is really around 15%, hoe are we going to create more jobs? I dont care if a candidate is a D,R, I or other, the economy and jobs are our concern, they need to focus on this! Dirty Rotten Imbeciles!
September 14, 201214 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8000, Actual - up 10,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported down 6000, Actual - down 3000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000 Again, last weeks number was under reported by....you guessed it - 2,000. This weeks number is sharply higher will likely be even worse when revised (since no revision has been lower since this has been tracked since March). Pick you favorite spin generator below for details. U.S. Jobless Claims Rise to Highest in Two Months: Economy - Bloomberg Jobless claims sharply higher - Sep. 13, 2012 Weekly unemployment aid applications rise to 382,000 after Hurricane Isaac | Fox News From the Bloomberg site: Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), the world’s largest personal-computer maker, this week expanded the total job cuts under its reorganization plan announced in May to 29,000, more than the 27,000 it had originally disclosed. The reductions will take place through fiscal year 2014, the Palo Alto, California-based company said. ... The unemployment rate has been stuck above 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch in monthly records going back to 1948. Lowe’s Cos. “We are watching unemployment, gas prices, GDP, all those other macro things that would impact the consumer’s willingness to spend,” Robert Niblock, chief executive officer of Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, said at a conference on Sept. 5. I wish this situation was better.
September 14, 201214 yr Author Related: U.S. Industrial Production Fell in August - Bloomberg Industrial production in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in August by the most since March 2009, ... A global economic slowdown is restraining demand for U.S. exports,... ... "Manufacturing is losing momentum,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. “Exports will weaken further, and the consumer is in a very tough position. The economy isn’t going anywhere.”
September 14, 201214 yr Once again, poor policies = poor recoveries. Increased entitlements, increased non defense spending, the threat of higher taxes, etc. Just not a formula for success.
September 20, 201213 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000 For those keeping track - the reported number was 382,000 last week. The reported number is 382,000 this week. The headlines say the numbers dropped. So how is a change of zero a 'drop'? The reported number was revised to 385,000. Making the rise last week even worse that initially reported but that is old news (or rather old facts). Once again the 2,000-3,000 is the delta. Always to the good side giving the numbers a better look than they end up being on the revised. Every revision since keeping track is less favorable than the original 'initial' numbers. The 4 week moving average is 'more reliable' but really they should say it is less manipulated since it uses revised data only. It rose for the 5th week and is at a 3 month high. I wish it were better. Or even getting better. Its not. Weekly jobless claims drop to 382K - CBS News The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the fifth straight week to 377,750, the highest level in nearly three months.
September 20, 201213 yr Author Looking at the BLS numbers Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment Average duration of Employment is still around 39 weeks - Around 9 months. So on average a laid-off person will take 9 months to find a new job. Is this 'normal'? It is 'typical'? Even in a recession? These charts indicate that is anything but normal - never since the the records were kept after WWII has the number ever been near this high in ANY previous recession. This is historically unprecedented. St. Louis FED graph of the same statistic. FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed[1][id]=UEMPMEAN# Since 1980 Historically, the number topped out in the very low 20s. Even during the deepest recessions. It is in the high 30s - and holding.
September 20, 201213 yr Looking at the BLS numbers Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment Average duration of Employment is still around 39 weeks - Around 9 months. So on average a laid-off person will take 9 months to find a new job. Is this 'normal'? It is 'typical'? Even in a recession? These charts indicate that is anything but normal - never since the the records were kept after WWII has the number ever been near this high in ANY previous recession. This is historically unprecedented. St. Louis FED graph of the same statistic. FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed[1][id]=UEMPMEAN# Since 1980 [ATTACH=CONFIG]37507[/ATTACH] Historically, the number topped out in the very low 20s. Even during the deepest recessions. It is in the high 30s - and holding. People should find this alarming.
September 27, 201213 yr Author Todays pre-release quiz: Which group or groups has or have MORE people EMPLOYED now (August data) than during the highest month between April-June: a) White Males over 20 b) White Females over 20 c) Black Males over 20 d) Black Females over 20 e) All of the above f) None of the above ?
September 27, 201213 yr Author Todays pre-release quiz: Which group or groups has or have MORE people EMPLOYED now (August data) than during the highest month between April-June: a) White Males over 20 b) White Females over 20 c) Black Males over 20 d) Black Females over 20 e) All of the above f) None of the above ? Answer - f) All groups have shown a decline in employment since their high water mark earlier this year. Source: Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
September 27, 201213 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000 Last weeks numbers were revised upward (as usual). A good drop apparently this week. But we know it will be revised upward since that revised number being higher is not just a trend but a given. Outlook number was 377,000 so expect "Happy days are here again" to play on all the talking head shows and blogs. Outlook was here. 2nd quarter GDP was revised....down. It was revised from 1.7 to 1.3%. That is almost a 25% miss on GDP estimate. This will likely negative influence the job market since companies are not seeing the growth needed to hire. More details here.
September 27, 201213 yr Author More on GDP: Final Q2 GDP Disaster: 1.25% Growth Comes Below Lowest Estimate | ZeroHedge Revision is below the lowest estimate (1.25 vs. 1.4). Trend (from link above): Q4 2011: 4.1%; Q1 2012: 2.0%; Q2 2012: 1.25% Specifics in a chart: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/09-2/GDP%20Q2%20FINAL.jpg Another view. GDP adjusted for inflation. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart When inflation is considered (SGS Alternative) GDP has been mostly negative since 2000.
September 28, 201213 yr Author September Chicago PMI - Business Insider The Chicago Purchasing Managers survey has fallen below 50 for the first time since September 2009. The 49.7 reading is well below last week's 53.0, and well below 52.8. Follow up from same blog: Chicago PMI Weak - Business Insider First of all: What is the Chicago PMI? It's a survey of Purchasing Managers at corporations, who are asked their take on the economy: How orders are doing, what they're doing with employment, what they're seeing with commodity costs, and so forth. ... Note in particular the collapse in New Orders and Employment and the jump-up in production costs (prices paid). ... So that report, sadly, screams stagflation. Here was one of many highlighted comments: "Uncertainty about taxes, regulations, and public policy going into 2013 is causing spending decisions to be deferred or constrained until the picture is clearer." Emphasis added. The financial cliff of taxes, healthcare, etc. is causing inaction and higher unemployment.
October 4, 201213 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000, Revision: +16,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +4,000 April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000, Revision: +10,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up 13,000, Actual - up 21,000, Revision: +8,000 April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +4,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down 27,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +3,000 May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 10,000, Actual - up 16,000, Revision: +6,000 June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down 12,000, Actual - down 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 6,000, Actual - 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +5,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000, Revision: +2,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision" +2,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +2,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000, Revision: +2,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000, Revision: +4,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000, Revision: +3,000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000, Revision: +2,000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000, Revision: +2,000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000, Revision: +3,000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000, Revision: +2,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000, Revision: +4,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +3,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000, Reported - down 16,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision: +4,000 October 4: Reported - 367,000 *** = Reported (Revised vs. Initial) trend incorrectly headlined. All cases were incorrectly as going down when after both weeks Revised numbers were available the trend was up. Weekly unemployment aid applications rise to 367K - CBS News No sustained drop. Of course, the revision will certainly be higher. If you are betting play the 3,000 - 5,000 range. Unless the books are really getting cooked here in the stretch - then go for 8,000 - 10,000 like in March and April. Of course the following statement is included. Its like a disclaimer in most articles. "Unemployment benefit applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. When they consistently fall below 375,000, it typically indicates that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate." Where did 375,000 come from? AP quoted it a while back - without backing information or source. So all the news organizations now quote an unsourced value from AP. Strange, in 2006 when unemployment was steady the weekly number was in the low 300,000s. Another more objective quote: "Economists predict employers added 111,000 jobs last month, only slightly more than the 96,000 jobs added in August." 111,000 is probably optimistic. But even if dead on it is an anemic number. To soak up new entrants into the workforce this number needs to be much higher.
October 11, 201213 yr Author New Jobless Claims Unexpected drop to 4 year low. Hopefully this is a truly positive and longer term trend. I realize it will likely get challenged since it is 'unexpectedly' low. Regardless of the political banter at this time we need less layoffs. U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop To Four-Year Low Last weeks number was revised.....up 2,000. Some things never change as they say... March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - up 11,000, Revision: +16,000 *** March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down 5,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +4,000 April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down 6,000, Actual - up 4,000, Revision: +10,000 *** April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up 13,000, Actual - up 21,000, Revision: +8,000 April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +4,000 *** May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down 27,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +3,000 May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down 1,000, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up 2,000, Revision: +2,000 *** May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 1,000, Revision: +3,000 *** May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 10,000, Actual - up 16,000, Revision: +6,000 June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down 12,000, Actual - down 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up 6,000, Actual - 9,000, Revision: +3,000 June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down 2,000, Actual - up 3,000, Revision: +5,000 *** June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 4,000, Revision: +2,000 July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down 14,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision" +2,000 July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down 26,000, Actual - down 24,000, Revision: +2,000 July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up 34,000, Actual - up 36,000, Revision: +2,000 July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down 25,000, Actual - down 21,000, Revision: +4,000 August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 August 9: Reported - 361,000, Revised - 364,000, Reported - down 6,000, Actual - down 3000, Revision: +3,000 August 16: Reported - 366,000. Revised - 368.000. Reported up 2000, Actual -up 4000, Revision: +2,000 August 23: Reported - 372,000.Revised - 374,000, Reported up 4000, Actual - up 6000, Revision: +2,000 August 30: Reported - 374,000. Revised - 377,000, Reported up 2000, Actual - up 3000, Revision: +3,000 September 6: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 367,000, Reported down 12,000, Actual - down 10,000, Revision: +2,000 September 13: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 386,000, Reported - up 15,000, Actual - up 18,000, Revision: +4,000 September 20: Reported - 382,000, Revised - 385,000, Reported - down 4,000, Actual - down 1,000, Revision: +3,000 September 27: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000, Reported - down 16,000, Actual - down 12,000, Revision: +4,000 October 4: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 369,000, Reported - up 8,000, Actual - up 10,000, Revision: +2,000 October 11: Reported - 339,000
October 11, 201213 yr Author Sorry to report....the report is 'missing one large state'. Why the Drop in Weekly Jobless Claims Is Flawed - 24/7 Wall St. "CNBC and Dow Jones have both confirmed that this latest weekly jobless claims report was missing data from one large state. Bloomberg noted that the Labor Department spokesperson said that one state accounted for most of the plunge in claims."
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