June 21, 201214 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD Keeping with the trend last weeks number was understated. It has been since I started tracking. Keeping with common but less universal trend the newly reported number is less than the revised by still higher than the initial number reported last week. So the headline reads 'down' but the actual situation and trend is no good at all. US unemployment aid applications little changed at 387,000, suggesting hiring will stay weak - The Washington Post
June 28, 201214 yr Author By now you know the pattern. a) Last weeks initial number is revised up. Check. b) This weeks initial number is less than last weeks revised number. Check c) The headline reads unemployment claims are down comparing the new initial number to last weeks revised number. Check d) When comparing the last week revised number to the previous week revised number the actual claims is higher - no lower as reported in the headlines. Check e) Trending is definitely getting worse with a higher and higher claims each week - regardless of the reporting game. Check March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD Weekly US unemployment aid applications decline but not enough to signal stronger hiring - The Washington Post If you look at the pattern above you will see the first week of month is usually the lowest. So next week likely be legitimately 'down'. The holiday will keep the numbers low as well with only a 4 day work week. The telling part will be end of July. Again, using the numbers above the last week of the month is the highest for each month. If the last week of July ends with 'only' 350,000 or less then that will be a positive sign. But that maybe overly hopeful. The last week of July may be well over 400,000. I believe 400,000 is the number the BLS is trying to keep out of the headlines. That will be a significant psychological blow to the economy.
June 28, 201214 yr Author Sometimes Joe's unguarded comments are gaffs....sometimes they are just brutal honesty. Biden: Economy Feels Like a ‘Depression for Millions’ - ABC News Vice President Joe Biden today offered a blunt assessment of the plight of the unemployed, telling supporters at a campaign rally in Iowa that the economy remains “a depression for millions and millions of Americans.”
July 3, 201214 yr Author Manufacturing - unexpectedly down in June and in contraction territory. Manufacturing in U.S. Unexpectedly Contracted in June - Bloomberg
July 3, 201214 yr Manufacturing - unexpectedly down in June and in contraction territory. Manufacturing in U.S. Unexpectedly Contracted in June - Bloomberg Forward....
July 5, 201214 yr Author Even with the holiday the report came out today. March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD Any positive sign is good. The lower is 'positive' but still the level here is like a leak in a ship taking on water. Here is a good sign that dives deeper into these these numbers and does some comparisons with previous years. Molly's Middle America: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Down (June 30, 2012)
July 6, 201214 yr Another bad jobs reports. 80k jobs added. 226k jobs added per month in the 1st quarter. 75k job added per month in the 2nd quarter.
July 7, 201214 yr Same line,,,,,,,,,,,,30 months in a row. Obama administration repeats same jobs line
July 12, 201214 yr Author March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD Any 'positive' news should be welcome and this is positive. But 2 factors make this hard to get too excited about. Its the first week of the quarter. And if you look at the first week of April it was the 'low' for Q2. Also, with a holiday there were only 4 days last week. Lets hope for a continuing positive employment trend (regardless of who benefits politically!). Even with this two week trend the numbers are still just too high for a good 'recovery'. U.S. jobless claims fall 26,000 to 350,000 - MarketWatch
July 14, 201214 yr imagine if we weren't practicing austerity and not laying off all of those teachers that we did in May and were actually hiring them. You know, many parts of the public sector are needed and vital, but what part of, "The public sector cannot drive the economy forward." do you not understand? Public sector job growth has been higher than private sector growth under this administration, and where has that gotten us. The government cannot spend us out of the problem, because spending is the problem. Only by reducing government spending and increasing private sector growth can we possibly hope to right this ship.
July 14, 201214 yr You know, many parts of the public sector are needed and vital, but what part of, "The public sector cannot drive the economy forward." do you not understand? Public sector job growth has been higher than private sector growth under this administration, and where has that gotten us. The government cannot spend us out of the problem, because spending is the problem. Only by reducing government spending and increasing private sector growth can we possibly hope to right this ship. :thumb:
July 19, 201214 yr Author The trend did not last. March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - up, Actual - TBD (but likely up dramatically) Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 386,000 "This was well above the consensus forecast of 365,000 and suggests ongoing weakness in the labor market." The updated number from the previous week (revised) increased by 2,000. The updated (and supposedly more accurate) revised number has always been higher that the 'initial' number. I am surprised that the 'initial' was reported so high. But it could be that the holiday week dampened the claims and then last there was a 'catch up'.
July 26, 201214 yr Author Better initial news, last week revised upward (as always) March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - TBD, Reported - down, Actual - TBD - likely down Weekly jobless claims drop by 35K - CBS News Glad its a number in a positive direction. Wish it was better. From the 2nd quarter results coming out companies are not optimistic about 3Q. Lexmark took a big hit for 2Q and guided lower for Q3. That theme is too common. Hopefully layoffs slow even into this new slowdown but that may be wishful thinking. Hiring will likely be dead in this situation.
August 2, 201214 yr Author UE claims up March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000 March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 07: Reported - 377,000, Revised - 380,000 Reported - down, Actual - down June 14: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - up, Actual - up June 21: Reported - 387,000, Revised - 392,000, Reported - down, Actual - up June 28: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 05: Reported - 374,000, Revised - 376,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 12: Reported - 350,000, Revised - 352,000, Reported - down, Actual - down July 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 388,000, Reported - up, Actual - up July 26: Reported - 353,000, Revised - 357,000, Reported - down, Actual - down August 2: Reported - 365,000, Revised - TBD (likely up), Reported - up, Actual - TBD (likely up) Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected | Reuters Last weeks number revised upward (as usual). New claims higher. Articles says 'less than expected'. Not sure what was expected. In a strong or even moderate recovery you would expect decreasing numbers until it is in the low 300,000s. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 370,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends, fell 2,750 to 365,500, the lowest in four months. If the seemly universal trend continues the number will likely be 'revised' next to a higher number (the revised has always been higher since I started tracking). So the estimate of 370,000 may still come true. But that will be next weeks update. Not terrible but not a good recovery. Locally there have been reports of coal mine operations shuttering. And it has been announced that Comair will cease operations - an impact to Norther Kentucky as it is (was) a strong Comair hub. Kentucky was the only state to record more than 1,000 new claims for the week ending July 28 according to DOL data. See this link: ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 [TABLE] [TR] [TD=width: 10%]State [/TD] [TD=width: 10%]Change [/TD] [TD=width: 3%] [/TD] [TD=width: 75%, align: left]State Supplied Comment [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]KY [/TD] [TD]+4,073 [/TD] [TD] [/TD] [TD=align: left]No comment. [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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