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Jobs Report - Less than forecast


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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/07/business/economy/us-added-only-120000-jobs-in-march-report-shows.html?_r=2&hp

 

The country’s employers added a disappointing 120,000 jobs in March, about half the net gains posted in each of the preceding three months.

 

Though not quoted in this article the forecast number was 200,000 and that was conservative given the last 2 months. So this was a significant miss.

 

Initial jobless claims were down to a 4 year low of 357,000 as reported Thursday. This is a 4 year low but still this number needs to get down into the low 300,000s for something that looks like 'recovery'.

 

 

Here is the chart I like to look at for 'is it better'.

 

Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

 

[h=2]"Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment"[/h]Year to year the average duration of unemployment is up slightly. This is not good at all as people are 'on average' out of work longer now than a year ago. And that is round 40 weeks. Average almost 9 months.

 

Year to year the median duration is slightly down - not good enough but at least in the 'right direction'. It is still around 20 weeks. So half the people find work around 4 1/2 months after getting laid off.

 

 

 

These numbers are just not going to get our country going. It is slowly bleeding out.

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Not trying to be a Debbie Downer....but....

 

U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rise last week - chicagotribune.com

 

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 367,000 from the previously reported 357,000.

 

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 355,000 last week.

 

Note that last weeks 'lowest number in 4 years' was revised upward. So not really the lowest in 4 years. But it made for good headlines for a day.

 

Jobless Claims Fall to Four-Year Low - ABC News

 

This number needs to get around 325,000 for a good 'recovery' to take hold.

 

If trends hold the unexpected 380,000 is likely under reported.

 

Jobless Claims Keep Getting Revised Up - Real Time Economics - WSJ

 

We all know by now that Presidents get too much credit and blame for the economy. Regardless of politics this is just bad news. And people deserve the correct data, not Enron-type messaged data that grabs headlines one week and then gets revised the next.

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Still not trying to be gloomy but another disappointing/unexpected/etc. jobs report.

 

CNN:

[h=1]Falling jobless claims still disappoint[/h]At least they were somewhat honest in their headline.

 

For comparison - NYT headline

 

[h=1]U.S. Jobless Claims Dip[/h]The reason they claimed 'dipped' was that last weeks figures were revised up from 380,000 to 388,000. Thus, making this weeks 386,000 a 'dip'. So even though the number was higher than last - see above - the headline reads a positive.

 

Weekly applications dipped last week by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 386,000. But that was only after the department revised up the previous week's data to show 8,000 more people applied for benefits than first estimated.

 

The articles also note that the 4 week moving average is now at a 3 month high - not good.

 

Even the LHL was reporting/spinning 'good news' - Kentucky unemployment officially dropped 0.1% in February - from 8.7 to 8.6.

 

These numbers are not 'recovery territory'.

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Weekly claims are down...using the constant fuzzy math.

 

Last weeks number was 386,000. This weeks number is 388,000. But the report is first time unemployment 'dipped' (decreased) this week by 1,000.

 

By now we know they revise the number reported the previous week.

 

Cooling U.S. Labor Market Takes a Toll on Confidence: Economy - Bloomberg

 

Jobless claims fell to 388,000 from a revised 389,000 the prior week that was the highest since early January, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

 

 

Summary of last 3 weeks:

 

Reported - 357,000 (new 4 year low), Revised - 367,000 (not a new 4 year low)

Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000

Reported - 388,000, Revised - 389,000

 

If you just glance at the headlines you would think that there has been 3 weeks of lowering first time unemployment since the incorrect report of a 4 year low. The 4 year low was incorrect and the trend is completely opposite. Terms like 'slowing' and 'cooling' buffer the real facts as born out by the numbers.

 

 

Weekly unemployment filings dip - chicagotribune.com

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Well, news is (apparently) better.

 

Weekly Jobless Claims Post Biggest Drop Since May 2011 | Fox Business

 

Reported number this week (non-revised) is 365,000. Down 27,000 from the revised (upward) number of 392,000 from last week.

 

Expanded summary:

 

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000

March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000

March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000

April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000

April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000

April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000

April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000

May 03: Reported - 367,000, Revised - TBD

 

Each revised number is higher for progressive weeks except for one where there is a 1,000 drop. So the trend has been higher and higher until this week - but as we see the 'revised' (i.e. more accurate) number has always been higher since mid March. The current 4-week moving average is now around 380,000. This translate into around 1.7M people per month losing jobs. That is an annual rate of around 20M. The rate has been this high since 2008 so the 4 year total is around 80M people. The total non-Farm payroll of the United States is around 130M.

 

Going back to 2006 - a period considered 'steady state' or 'healthy' by most the number of initial UE claims were right around 300,000. See here.

 

For some reason the 'good number' now is considered 375,000.

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The bigger picture from April.

 

Official UE rate dropped to 8.1 from 8.2

 

Month to Month (March to April)

 

Workforce: -342,000 (154,365 - April, 154,707 March)

Participation Rate: -0.2% (63.6 - April, 63.8 - March)

Unemployed: -173,000

 

Year to year - same month April 2011 to April 2012

 

Workforce: +55,000 (A2012 - 154,365, A2011 - 153,420)

Participation Rate: -0.6% (63.6 - A2012, 64.2 - A2011)

Unemployed: -1,292,000

 

Source - BLS here.

 

By either Month-to-month or year-to-year measure the picture is one of stagnation at the very best. Participation rate is the lowest since the early 1980s and the rates are dropping because of people 'exiting the workforce'.

 

Trending in length of unemployment is here (BLS).

 

The trend of length of unemployment was mixed. Long term unemployed was down and has been on downward trend over the last year. But that is most likely due to people 'leaving the workforce' after long term unemployment. Those unemployed less than 5 weeks has risen every month since January in absolute numbers. This would be expected given the weekly numbers in yesterday's post. 5-14 weeks is almost flat line from January to April and almost the same as April 2011 in absolute numbers.

 

The only way the reported number continues to go down is though reduction in workforce and/or participation rate or both. At best, 'the recovery' is taking a long breather and barely holding ground. At worse, the feared double dip is underway.

 

 

Anecdotal input. I talked to businessman who is good friends with a car dealer. He indicated the dealer said his overall dealership had sold over 200 cars in December, 190 in January, 180 in February, 150 in March and they 'hoped' to sell over 100 in April.

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The headlines are reading 'Good news' announcing another 'drop' to 267,000. Now if you remember last week the number was reported at 265,000. So this drop is due to the fact that last weeks numbers were (again) adjusted upward. This continues the trend of adjustments that are always higher than the previous weeks 'initial' numbers.

 

Jobless claims show slight improvement - May. 10, 2012

 

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000

March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up

April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down

May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - Due May 17 Reported - down, Actual - TBD

 

5 out of 7 weeks, the headlines were incorrect and incorrectly reported the trend.

 

The newspapers will cite that a number below 375,000 will lower the unemployment 'rate'. They usually reference that 'AP' says this. That may be true for the current situation but likely only with the ongoing reduction in workforce levels and participation. As noted above numbers above 300,000 in 2006 were considered a concern.

 

 

Good news for Kentucky is the announcement that Amazon will create 550 jobs in Winchester.

 

Amazon to open service center in Winchester, Kentucky | The Courier-Journal | courier-journal.com

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March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000

March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up

April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down

May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - TBD Reported - no change, Actual - TBD

 

Weekly unemployment claims remain at same level | syracuse.com

 

Keeping with the trend of reporting low and revising high this week the revised number was 3,000 higher than previously reported. This resulted in an another incorrect and overly optimistic headlines last week. This week it is hard to find stories on the weekly numbers. It appears the media is getting tired of cheer leading what are obviously (when looked at as a whole) invalid numbers each week.

 

The running count is now 6 out of 8 weeks have been incorrectly and overly optimistically reported.

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As others have stated as well, Europe is a big key for what happens here as far as the economy.

 

What can we do to get more jobs? And if we shrink the government, where are those people going to get jobs?

 

One of the concerns with the people in Occupy was jobs, but people just looked at them and said "get a job". What jobs? If the rate is really around 15%, hoe are we going to create more jobs?

 

I dont care if a candidate is a D,R, I or other, the economy and jobs are our concern, they need to focus on this!

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Time for the weekly update.

 

Guess which direction the revised number went?

 

Guess how the number this week got reported?

 

 

 

If you have been following the answers to the above should be easy by now.

 

Answers - last week number was revised UP (from 370,000 to 372,000) and the headline this week reads that jobless claims 'fell' (from 372,000 to 370,000), thus supposedly indicating things are 'better'.

 

 

 

Here is the trend:

 

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000

March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up

April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down

May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no change, Actual - up

May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - TBD Reported - down, Actual - TBD

 

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall Slightly | Fox Business

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Most people say the real unemployment rate is closer to 15%-16%. The number the government uses is people who filed, not people who are unemployeed.

 

This is true, but actual unemployment, from what I understand, has always been more than what the government can measure.

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Sorry to say another bad week.

 

Initial reported number is 13,000 higher than last weeks initial reported number. Last weeks number was revised up 3,000 invalidating the reported headlines of 'no change', it was actually higher.

 

Here is the trend:

 

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000

March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down

April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up

April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down

May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no chg, Actual - up

May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 373,000 Reported - down, Actual - up

May 31: Reported - 383,000, Revised - TBD Reported - up, Actual - TBD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims May 31 - Business Insider

Edited by Bluegrasscard
fixed March 29th week Actual incorrect.
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