Bluegrasscard

Already higher numbers there. Something brought up on this was that people have returned indoors as it has gotten hotter. But do not really have anything to back anything as to the "source" of the uptick in some states. I heard Idaho was hotspot today. Idaho?

Takes more than a week to build up. And Vitamin-D seems to be key to fight the infection more than preventing or protecting from it. But like I said this was "gut feel" after seeing one vacation spot.

My gut feel is imported by all the "northerners" who broke out of lock-down in June with a vengeance. Especially the young people who will do the bar thing at night. We did HHI in June and the beach houses were all occupied by people from Chicago, NJ, Mass - previous hotspots.

With India's global location this does map to the Vit-D research. https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(20)30574-5/fulltext "The current study is the first to document a statistically significant correlation between a country's latitude and its COVID-19 mortality. The highly significant probability ( P < .0001) that countries proximal to the equator have lower COVID-19 fatalities than distal countries supports a probable connection between latitude, sunlight exposure, Vitamin D, and COVID-19 fatality. The most probable explanation for the correlation found between latitude and COVID-19 deaths is the mechanism of Vitamin D induced by sunlight exposure." Also, remember where Italy's hotspot was - up in the northern areas near Switzerland - in winter. Not on the coastlines. Look at who suffers in the US. The older and elder who do not get outside much. The kids, even with their x-box addictions are getting out, and drinking their milk, etc. And the impact of Corna is nearly nil on the very young. I know this is redundant. But you take independent data points and if you fit the curve to those points and things emerge. Vitamin-D as key combatant to this virus (and probably all infections) comes up time and time again.

There are actions that can be taken AND get things headed back to "more normal" and start the ride back up. Right now we are on merry-go-round that is the slowest ride ever. - Emphasis immune system health. As stated (and there are lots of formal and informal sources on this) Vitamin-D is critical. Where are the PSAs to encourage people to get daily sunlight or take supplements or eat and drink things that supply Vitamin-D? - Encourage other supplements that actively fight the virus. Zinc the most noted. Most metals - copper, iron, etc. may also be useful. Again, where are the PSAs for that? - Make hydroxychloriquine over the counter. Take the controversy and politics out of it. 200 mg twice a week and daily zinc are now active proactive treatments. At a very minimum stop the off-label restrictions. (See previous post on this unprecedented and ominous action.) - Develop strong protection plans for nursing homes and other vulnerable residences. With half the deaths in these type locations this has to be addressed and still managed. - Carefully open up mass-gathering events where people are shoulder to shoulder. That includes bars, sports events, concerts, etc. 'There is rightful concern on these potential fast spreader venues/events. So its not "mask-or-nothing". There are lots of other things that can be emphasized and done. The person who works in a hospital and has access to lots of the data said "everyone will get this, the best is that we keep from overrunning the system." But the ride needs to speed up. The current environment is not sustainable. There will be more "cases" and sadly, fatalities, "related" to COVID-19. But lock-down, mask and social distancing have had their run. They are not magic.

That is what SARS-2 is.

Never, ever in the history of regulated medicine has an agency restricted use of drug by a certified physician, even for off-label uses - until this year. Pharmacists can now overrule or disobey a doctor's written prescription. This is unprecedented. This never happened before this year. THAT is what is "new" with this virus.

SARS-1 and SARS-2 are mechanically the same for the most part. HCQ and zinc mechanically work on them in the same manner.

Because non-doctors are threatening doctors who do.

The recent studies have lots of problems and some have now been fully retracted. The one in Brazil with the high level doses was grossly inappropriate. The proactive function is well known. The use at late stages (where most of the studies have focused) is known to have challenges. Also some, if not most, studies have ignored the use of zinc as the other active component of treatment. In general, the HCQ allows the zinc into the cells where the zinc destroys the replicating virus. And if we are going to continue to mandate things we should mandate Vitamin-D supplements since there is direct correlation of Vitamin-D levels and rate of fatality. https://www.ajicjournal.org/article/S0196-6553(20)30574-5/fulltext

There has been for years. Including the original SARS outbreak.

Because they work on people with open wounds or during surgeries where the immune system will not protect the patient.

There is still not evidence that mask make any difference. If anything, statistically, its the opposite. And seeing it practice - it may very well make things more risky and not less. Mask are not at all a solution, especially in school settings that are coming up. Making HCQ over the counter and encouraging daily zinc supplements maybe a more sustainable response.

That rate is deaths/cases - yes? I think the increase in testing and finding more "cases" is driving part of that ratio. I did find charts showing the rise in deaths in Florida on an absolute basis. Definitely uptick in 'deaths per day' moving average. But not an explosion at all.

Truely a mess at this point. The stories of testing positive and then retesting negative seem to be growing. Notable one of these does include race driver Jimmy Johnson. False positives and false negative issues seem to be coming to light and growing. Anti-body testing as of May was acknowledged to be 50/50. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200717005397/en/CDC-Coronavirus-Test-Kits-Generate-30-False https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns-that-half-of-coronavirus-antibody-test-results-are-wrong-2020-05-27/ https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/half-of-cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-are-inaccurate-study-finds/ar-BB16S6M6 Per post above and discussions this weekend with those inside the industry there seems to be uptick or at best stabilization of those requiring treatment. But it is definitely not an explosion at this point.

Updated numbers out. I am using the week of 7/18 as a benchmark as to how numbers slowly come in at national level - at least this this measurement point. Week of 7/18 shows 2,373 COVID related deaths. The percent of "expected (total) deaths" is up to 67%. So extrapolating would lead to around 3,500 deaths total is where it looks like that week will land. The previous two weeks are now at 99 and 98 percent of total expected deaths so most the reporting for those weeks should be done. There is an uptick. Starting with 6/27 (the low mark since March) the numbers are now - 3,384, 3,689 and 3,814 progressively. If 7/18 and 7/25 come in below 4,000 then it would look like the fatality rate may have stabilized, regardless of the "cases". And maybe that is the best it gets for now. For comparison the peak was 4/18 at almost 17,000 deaths per week nationally. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR1JB2ef0yMyVsrKhcXSyVh48jA1LssMmWjyVuCfSm_FwO1oiVwct6j9AuQ

Had some discussions this weekend with people in nursing home industry and inside hospital administration during a quick check-in run to western side of state. I will just list here. Nursing homes - still very challenging situations, even in the ones without much impact. The wall-to-wall testing done found many asymptomatic patients in some cases. At in one incident many stayed postive for longer than two weeks. Three of them were still showing positive test after 60 days in isolation. Luckily the CDC just changed the rules for long-term asymptomatics in nursing homes to allow them to come out of strict isolation if they are still not symptomatic after at least two weeks (maybe more - not sure on specific). https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html Nursing homes 2 - mandates are putting strain on facilities, even when cleared. Example is visitations have to be 'monitored' in person - so staff is needed to just to have visitations. Nursing homes 3 - Ohio County still have trouble with recently outbreak apparently. https://www.tristatehomepage.com/news/local-news/ohio-county-reports-first-covid-19-death-one-day-after-an-outbreak-reported-at-a-long-term-care-facility/ Positive again - an upper middle aged man who had the virus for sure in March tested positive again after being clear for at least couple of months. He was a small event where a person tested positive a couple of days later. Seems like bad news for the "had it once and no worries" scenarios. Not easily spread - people at event above did all get tested. Most were young. Except above, all others were negative. Seems like good news Treatment is better than few months ago. Hence the improved fatality rate in face of rising number of "cases" and infected people. Comment was that regardless of statistics issues/concerns - the number infected and needing care is rising for sure. The overall situation is clearly showing signs of straining people via reports one of the people sees daily. Both drug overdoes and suicide attempts are rising. Currently the overdoses are most prevalent and problem-some. Three seems to be agreement on view that things are "mutating". Cases where rashes develop now is being seen in kids and in adults in the lower risk categories. I had not heard about these cases with rash before yesterday. Take care all.

It was good to see all of them out. Not sure how directly it maybe related but another sibling is undergoing serious experimental medical treatments. So the stress level on the family has to be high. Stress is hard on immune systems and leaves one vulnerable - to COVID and other things. Everyone needs to try to keep the stress away, as hard as that is at this time.

Two parents and a daughter that I grew up with were hospitalized due to the virus. The parents are in their 80s and she is in her upper 50s. Parents had it first, she came down to help out. All 3 were in hospital. All three out now after 2-3 weeks.

Any chance to know what the sources are of the "cases". I continue to find this term difficult to use for any metric when it does represent actual unique infected people. The other thing is what constituted a "case" over time. Since we saw where some places record a positive "case" as a positive antibody test now. Well, just that means that the baseline metric of "cases" was different between the period when antibody testing was available and now that it is. It may not be direct fraud, but using "cases" as a key measure, especially when comparing over time, when its sources and definition changes is definitely suspect to the whole understanding the actual situation.

This actually matches what has been documented in the less popular reports and studies that do not promote the doomsday scenarios. This includes that young, healthy people, even when positive are not good spreaders (likely due to a healthy immune system keeping the replication down) and that asymptomatic people do not easily (if at all) spread. This is likely due to same thing - a strong immune system that is keeping the replication down and thus preventing symptoms and preventing shedding to others.

According to who? Here is the CDC count. And it lags a good 2 to 3 weeks for full reporting. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm The trend has been down nationally. The 7/18 week shows 336 deaths "involving" covid and 10, 577 total deaths. That is about 1/5th the expected total deaths (should run around 50K a week based on chart). So 5 times 336 is less than 2,000. And that should keep the trend going down.

This is an excerpt from a July 13th newsletter from the Deputy Director of Emerging Pathogens at UF. Hospitals around the state are reaching capacity but remember that many hospitals are normally near capacity, and ICUs are near capacity as well. The overwhelming majority of these beds and ICU rooms are not full with COVID-19 patients, despite the surge in cases. ICU numbers change hourly, and in many cases even more frequently, and that’s the case regardless of COVID-19.

With this link and the links it leads to you can slice and dice deaths in almost infinite ways. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm The most basic interesting statistic. Of the deaths that "involve" COVID-19 overall, over 50% of them come from the worst 5 states.

Also, From April. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc7_2#:~:text=An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed,more information becomes available. From above: Asymptomatic transmission An asymptomatic laboratory-confirmed case is a person infected with COVID-19 who does not develop symptoms. Asymptomatic transmission refers to transmission of the virus from a person, who does not develop symptoms. There are few reports of laboratory-confirmed cases who are truly asymptomatic, and to date (April), there has been no documented asymptomatic transmission. This does not exclude the possibility that it may occur. Asymptomatic cases have been reported as part of contact tracing efforts in some countries. ***** Emphasis added. I find the use of the word 'truly' interesting. Not sure what 'non-truly' asymptomatic would be. It seems some people were showing 'some symptoms' of some illness but were not being classified as 'symptomatic' and label 'asymptomatic'. That is what apparently happened in the early study that launched the whole 'asymptomatic' frenzy.