nWo

I'll make my first call on snow tomorrow morning. The possible snow this weekend looks to be just the start of winter returning to Kentucky. There appears to be a second more potent system poised to pass through Kentucky around Tuesday of next week.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible

A quick hit. I'm really growing confident in the accumulating snow coming this weekend. The first system to hit late Saturday into Sunday looks, for now, to be mainly in and along the southern Kentucky. Totals are still waffling but should get some good info on the accumulation totals later today. Now, this doesn't look like our only chance for snow. The modeling data is showing another system to hit Kentucky early next week. One thing of note with the very cold temps forecast for this weekend there looks to be some significant damage possible for trees and flowers already in bloom. I'll try to post an update this evening. Worked almost 12 yesterday and have to go into work early this morning. So I can't really go over this morning's data like I like to.

maybe 2-4" this weekend. These are just the totals at this time. I'll post more detailed info by Friday. I worked almost 12 hours yesterday and have to go to work early this morning. So I don't really have the time to really go into the model data.

All of the models I use, NAM, GFS and CFS are now showing a system that could produce snow hitting Kentucky this weekend. Where they differ is the timing and track. I'm not ready to forecast any numbers but I will say this maybe the first winter storm of the season.

Yep temps in the low 20s with possible snow.

Looks like we have two shots at accumulating snows. Saturday into Sunday then again Monday through Tuesday. So check back for updates.

Thanks, I'm going to wait on giving any totals. Just looked over the 18z GFS run. Still showing snow but as expected there is a back and forth on the path of the system that will come through this weekend. The path will make all the difference on who gets snow and how much snow accumulates. Should get a good read on the possible system tomorrow.

The midday run of the GFS almost matched exactly the CFS from this morning. So that means a good chance of getting what it is showing. I may give some totals this evening after the 18z run.

This weekend is looking to be.... Both the CFS and GFS models are coming into agreement on the type of precipitation for this Saturday into Sunday. The differ on the timing. The GFS has in coming in sooner. Good chance we'll see some snow. One tell tale sign is now the Storm Prediction Center is no longer showing the chance of severe weather for WKY. By Saturday night almost the entire state could see temps in the mid to upper 20s. A low pressure systems looks to form around Texas and move up through Tennessee. This combination could produce some decent snow for much of Kentucky. It all depends on the track of the Low Pressure system. The model are taking in on a more southerly track the last few runs. I'm not ready to say how much snow yet. Two main reasons. First, the accumulation totals will waver up and down until we get closer to the time period. Second, people wouldn't believe what they are showing anyway. :thumb: I'll try and post an update this evening.

This is just shows that there can be thunderstorm warnings issued without a watch being issued.

@ggclfan You might need a pair of these to run in this weekend. :thumb:

:lol:

The cold may not be the only thing you'll be running in! :thumb:

Some are not going to like what the GFS is now showing for this weekend. Snow is now back in the picture. I'm not going to post any totals tonight because things will more than likely fluctuate between now and then. All I'm willing to say tonight is if the trend continues winter is definitely not over.

I tried to tell everyone winter is not over. Just wait till this upcoming Saturday. Right now parts of Kentucky are looking at temps in the mid to upper 20s Saturday. Then the cold air will spread south during the day.

First let me say this is not a prediction but just a snap shot or picture in time that the GFS model is showing of the possible weather for this coming Saturday. According to this mornings 06z GFS model it will depend where you live in Kentucky as to what type of weather you might get this coming Saturday. Those in NKY could see some sleet and freezing rain with temps in the upper 20s Saturday afternoon into the night. a swath through CKY could see temps in the low 40s dropping into the high 30s. with showers. SKY looks to see some strong to severe storms during the same time period with temps in the low 60s. WKY could see temps in the mid to upper 60s and chance of severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has already issued a probability of severe storms on Saturday for WKY. Now as everyone can see this will be a tough weather weekend to predict. As we get closer everything will come into closer focus. I'll update either later today or in the morning.

Look for scattered showers to start moving in on Sunday morning 3/12. Then the afternoon look for more wide spread showers and possible thunderstorms. WKY could be looking at severe weather. Now this is what the GFS is showing now. So things probably will change.

What people need to understand is that the GFS model picture I posted was just a snapshot in time. It was not to be taken as an prediction. That's why I posted in my first post that nothing is definite. When the model information is released it is showing what the computations were showing at that moment. Sequential models are no longer showing the snow. Like the 06z GFS model just released this morning is now showing the possibility of strong to severe storms.

The CFS Model is showing the lows Monday morning the 20th in the mid 20s.

3/18 high temps low to mid 60s chance of rain 3/19 high temps in the low to mid 30s chance of rain changing over to snow.