statmanhensley

Boyle County goes for a fake punt on 4th down but an illegal procedure penalty forces them into a kick. Rock takes over after a bad punt at the BC 43.

Boyle County will start their opening drive from their own 32 yard line after a 12-yard kickoff return.

Boyle County has won the coin toss and has elected to receive the opening kickoff.

My internet connection is kind of shoddy right now, but I will try to post as often as I can.

When listening to the Rockcastle game last week, the WRVK announce team of Jerry Pensol and Jason Coguer kept mentioning how sloppy and muddy the field was due to the rains that had come through. Add on the fact that the field has probably seen some 30 games this season from the different age levels and you will find that a really good rain for a couple days will make it bad for a couple weeks. From what I remember then saying, it was the muddiest in the middle of the field from the 30 to the 30.

83-13 in the first round isn't bad. lol. Also getting 30 within 7 points is awesome as well. There were a handful of those that were within a single point and the Pikeville/Paintsville result was a bullseye.

Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs. The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS. Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off. Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much. If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner. So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for every team still playing in ALL classes and the HRS predictions: 129.20 Trinity (Louisville) 115.05 Highlands 113.00 Bowling Green 109.20 John Hardin 109.20 St. Xavier 104.60 Scott County 104.05 Covington Catholic 100.50 Warren Central 98.05 Lexington Catholic 97.80 Boyle County 96.80 duPont Manual 96.30 Butler 93.65 Bell County 93.55 Franklin County 93.20 Boone County 92.85 Harlan County 92.85 Ryle 91.30 Eastern 91.25 Beechwood 91.25 Madisonville-North Hopkins 91.10 Henderson County 90.60 Central 90.60 Newport Central Catholic 90.35 Christian County 90.20 Pleasure Ridge Park 89.35 Paducah Tilghman 89.30 Ashland Blazer 88.90 Franklin-Simpson 88.85 Johnson Central 88.65 Collins 88.65 Mayfield 88.55 Male 88.50 Glasgow 87.60 Jeffersontown 86.65 Belfry 85.85 Holy Cross - Lou. 85.40 Lafayette 84.80 Conner 84.80 Rockcastle County 84.05 Anderson County 83.65 Bryan Station 83.50 Holy Cross - Cov. 82.65 Fort Campbell 82.20 Breathitt County 82.05 Owensboro Catholic 81.95 Southwestern 81.25 Ballard 80.75 Danville 80.75 North Hardin 80.55 Somerset 80.40 Lone Oak 78.90 Perry County Central 78.65 Hazard 78.50 North Oldham 78.10 Montgomery County 78.05 North Bullitt 76.85 Campbell County 75.15 Pike County Central 74.90 Bardstown 74.90 Owensboro 74.55 Greenwood 74.15 Edmonson County 72.15 DeSales 71.40 Fairview 69.45 Murray 69.25 Garrard County 68.65 Christian Academy - Lou. 67.75 Western 66.80 Seneca 66.60 Corbin 66.60 Lexington Christian 66.50 Mercer County 66.35 Monroe County 63.10 Butler County 62.60 Wayne County 61.95 Pikeville 59.80 Hancock County 59.80 Raceland 59.40 Owen County 58.95 Bourbon County 58.80 Frankfort 58.45 Lincoln County 57.50 Russell 57.45 Kentucky Country Day 56.70 Spencer County 56.05 Powell County 54.05 Lawrence County 52.05 Leslie County 49.45 Campbellsville 48.75 Harlan 48.05 Russellville 47.90 Williamsburg 45.55 Bellevue 44.30 Lloyd Memorial 42.70 Nicholas County 26.10 Ludlow Class 1A - Region 1 Kentucky Country Day at Mayfield - MHS by 37.2 Russellville at Lou. Holy Cross - HC by 43.8 Class 1A - Region 2 Bellevue at Frankfort - FHS by 19.25 Ludlow at Beechwood - BHS by 71.15 Class 1A - Region 3 Harlan at Williamsburg - WHS by 5.15 Campbellsville at Hazard - HHS by 35.2 Class 1A - Region 4 Nicholas County at Fairview - FHS by 34.7 Raceland at Pikeville - PHS by 8.15 Class 2A - Region 1 Hancock County at Murray - MHS by 15.65 Butler County at Owensboro Catholic - OC by 24.95 Class 2A - Region 2 Bardstown at Glasgow - GHS by 19.6 DeSales at Christian Academy of Louisville - CAl by 2.5 Class 2A - Region 3 Cov. Holy Cross at Owen County - HC by 18.1 Lloyd Memorial at Newport Central Cathollic - NCC by 52.3 Class 2A - Region 4 Danville at Somerset - SHS by 5.8 Lexington Christian at Leslie County - LCA by 8.55 Class 3A - Region 1 Monroe County at Paducah Tilghman - PT by 29 Fort Campbell at Edmonson County - FC by 2.5 Class 3A - Region 2 Corbin at Central - Central by 30 Wayne County at Bell county - BC by 37.05 Class 3A - Region 3 Russell at Garrard County - GC by 17.75 Powell County at Bourbon County - BC by 8.9 Class 3A - Region 4 Pike County Central at Breathitt County - BC by 13.05 Lawrence County at Belfry - BHS by 40.6 Class 4A - Region 1 Owensboro at Lone Oak - LO by 11.5 Madisonville-North Hopkins at Franklin-Simpson - F-S by 3.65 Class 4A - Region 2 Spencer County at Collins - MLC by 37.95 North Oldham at Western - NO by 4.75 Class 4A - Region 3 Mercer County at Lexington Catholic - LC by 37.55 Boyle County at Rockcastle County - BC by 7 Class 4A - Region 4 Johnson Central at Highlands - HHS by 32.2 Covington Catholic at Ashland Blazer - CCH by 8.75 Class 5A - Region 1 Warren Central at Christian County - WC by 4.15 Greenwood at Bowling Green - BG by 44.45 Class 5A - Region 2 North Hardin at John Hardin - JH by 34.45 Jeffersontown at North Bullitt - J'town by 3.55 Class 5A - Region 3 Montgomery County at Anderson County - AC by 11.95 Conner at Franklin County - FC by 14.75 Class 5A - Region 4 Perry County Central at Southwestern - SW by 9.05 Lincoln County at Harlan County - HC by 40.4 Class 6A - Region 1 Pleasure Ridge Park at Henderson County - HC by 6.9 Seneca at Butler - BHS by 35.5 Class 6A - Region 2 Male at St. Xavier - X by 26.65 duPont Manual at Trinity - T by 38.4 Class 6A - Region 3 Bryan Station at Eastern - EHS by 13.65 Ballard at Scott County - SC by 29.35 Class 6A - Region 4 Lafayette at Campbell County - LHS by 0.55 Boone County at Ryle - RHS by 5.65

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting. Games in black mean correct winner chosen. Games in blue mean correct within 7 points. Games in red mean incorrect winner chosen. Class 1A - Region 1 Caverna (1-9) at Mayfield (10-0) - MHS by 83.45 (MHS by 57) Fulton County (2-8) at Kentucky Country Day (8-2) - KCD by 40.7 (KCD by 31) Fulton City (2-8) at Lou. Holy Cross (9-1) - HC by 83.85 (HC by 50) Bethlehem (2-8) at Russellville (5-5) - RHS by 36.55 (RHS by 5) Class 1A - Region 2 Dayton (1-9) at Frankfort (5-5) - FHS by 36.6 (FHS by 49) Bracken County (6-4) at Bellevue (6-4) - BHS by 26.3 (BHS by 47) Paris (1-9) at Beechwood (9-1) - BHS by 89.8 (BHS by 53) Ludlow (2-8) at Eminence (9-1) - EHS by 21.4 (LHS by 29) Class 1A - Region 3 Jenkins (1-8) at Williamsburg (7-3) - WHS by 38.1 (WHS by 40) Berea (4-6) at Harlan (5-4) - HHS by 33.9 (HHS by 23) Lynn Camp (0-10) at Hazard (7-2) - HHS by 70.2 (HHS by 57) Pineville (4-6) at Campbellsville (6-4) - CHS by 33.7 (CHS by 16) Class 1A - Region 4 Phelps (4-6) at Fairview (10-0) - FHS by 53.2 (FHS by 57) Nicholas County (6-4) at Allen Central (6-4) - NC by 5.9 (NC by 2) Paintsville (2-8) at Pikeville (8-2) - Pikeville by 54 (Pikeville by 54) South Floyd (3-6) at Raceland (5-5) - RHS by 38.6 (RHS by 49) Class 2A - Region 1 Union County (5-5) at Murray (9-1) - MHS bu 26.25 (MHS by 8) Crittenden County (3-7) at Hancock County (6-4) - HC by 18.6 (HC by 6) Reidland (2-8) at Owensboro Catholic (10-0) - OC by 58.25 (OC by 62) Butler County (7-3) at Caldwell County (5-5) - CC by 7.7 (BC by 21) Class 2A - Region 2 Washington County (5-5) at Glasgow (10-0) - GHS by 30 (GHS by 57) Metcalfe County (2-8) at Bardstown (9-1) - BHS by 59.85 (BHS by 60) Clinton County (0-10) at Christian Acadmeny of Louisville (6-4) - CAL by 65.7 (CAL by 49) DeSales (5-5) at Green County (7-3) - GC by 11.5 (DHS by 14) Class 2A - Region 3 Newport (4-6) at Owen County (10-0) - OC by 18.1 (OC by 25) Carroll County (8-2) at Cov. Holy Cross (7-3) - HC by 46.3 (HC by 68) Gallatin County (5-5) at Newport Central Catholic (9-1) - NCC by 65 (NCC by 56) Lloyd Memorial (4-6) at Walton-Verona (8-2) - W-V by 16.1 (LM by 13) Class 2A - Region 4 Betsy Layne (6-3) at Somerset (6-4) - SHS by 48.55 (SHS by 41) Danville (7-3) at Prestonsburg (5-5) - DHS by 11 (DHS by 16) Middlesboro (4-6) at Leslie County (8-2) - LC by 5.7 (LC by 23) Shelby Valley (5-5) at Lexington Christian Acadeny (4-6) - LCA by 26.1 (LCA by 42) Class 3A - Region 1 Hart County (6-4) at Paducah Tilghman (8-2) - PT by 56.55 (PT by 56) Trigg County (7-3) at Monroe County (5-5) - MC by 13.5 (MC by 23) Heath (3-7) at Edmonson County (10-0) - EC by 42.05 (EC by 55) South Warren (4-6) at Fort Campbell (6-4) - FC by 54.45 (FC by 41) Class 3A - Region 2 Casey County (4-6) at Central (7-3) - CHS by 47.65 (CHS by 24) Henry County (2-8) at Corbin (6-4) - CHS by 28.75 (CHS by 7) Elizabethtown (0-10) at Bell County (9-1) - BC by 63.95 (BC by 66) Wayne County (8-2) at LaRue County (6-4) - LC by 7.1 (WC by 7) Class 3A - Region 3 West Carter (3-7) at Garrard County (9-1) - GC by 42.7 (GC by 49) Western Hills (5-5) at Russell (6-4) - RHS by 18.65 (RHS by 6) Powell County (6-4) at Lewis County (8-2) - LC by 0.75 (PC by 45) Fleming County (4-6) at Bourbon County (7-3) - BC by 24 (BC by 41) Class 3A - Region 4 Sheldon Clark (1-9) at Breathitt County (10-0) - BC by 42.3 (BC by 45) Magoffin County (3-7) at Pike County Central (7-2) - PCC by 63 (PCC by 48) Jackson County (1-9) at Belfry (9-1) - BHS by 80.1 (BHS by 55) Lawrence County (4-6) at Morgan County (8-2) - MC by 0.05 (LC by 7) Class 4A - Region 1 Breckinridge County (1-9) at Lone Oak (8-2) - LO by 70.7 (LO by 42) Owensboro (4-6) at Warren East (7-3) - OHS by 1.85 (OHS by 25) Allen County-Scottsville (4-6) at Madisonville-North Hopkins (8-2) - MNH by 24.3 (MNH by 10) Calloway County (3-7) at Franklin-Simpson (9-1) - F-S by 33.7 (F-S by 56) Class 4A - Region 2 Moore (4-6) at Collins (8-2) - MLC by 47.35 (MLC by 49) Spencer County (4-6) at Doss (2-8) - DHS by 15.2 (SC by 22) Valley (4-6) at North Oldham (8-2) - NO by 34 (NO by 22) Waggener (2-8) at Western (5-5) - Western by 57.95 (Western by 13) Class 4A - Region 3 Clay County (1-9) at Lexington Catholic (8-2) - LC by 50.1 (LC by 58) Mercer County (4-6) at Russell County (9-1) - RC by 29.75 (MC by 5) Knox Central (6-3) at Boyle County (7-3) - BC by 16.15 (BC by 14) Marion County (3-7) at Rockcastle County (8-2) - Rock by 26.6 (Rock by 31) Class 4A - Region 4 Boyd County (5-5) at Highlands (10-0) - HHS by 76.15 (HHS by 57) Holmes (4-6) at Johnson Central (8-2) - JC by 24.85 (JC by 46) Rowan County (8-2) at Covington Catholic (7-2) - CCH by 45.35 (CCH by 31) Harrison County (2-8) at Ashland Blazer (8-2) - AB by 42.25 (AB by 53) Class 5A - Region 1 Barren County (4-5) at Christian County (9-1) - CC by 37.15 (CC by 48) Graves County (4-6) at Warrren Central (9-1) - WC by 30.75 (WC by 34) Greenwood (5-5) at Ohio County (9-1) - OC by 3.55 (GHS by 16) Apollo (2-8) at Bowling Green (10-0) - BG by 56.95 (BG by 51) Class 5A - Region 2 Shelby County (2-8) at John Hardin (10-0) - JH by 49.85 (JH by 50) North Hardin (5-5) at Bullitt East (4-6) - NH by 17.3 (NH by 21) Bullitt Central (3-7) at Jeffersontown (8-2) - JHS by 37.7 (JHS by 21) Grayson County (5-5) at North Bullitt (9-1) - NB by 26.65 (NB by 20) Class 5A - Region 3 Montgomery County (5-5) at Cooper (6-4) - CHS by 15.15 (MC by 16) South Oldham (6-4) at Anderson County (8-2) - AC by 13.05 (AC by 7) East Jessamine (5-5) at Conner (5-4) - CHS by 23.4 (CHS by 21) Scott High (4-5) at Franklin County (10-0) - FC by 38.6 (FC by 35) Class 5A - Region 4 Whitley County (3-7) at Southwestern (7-3) - SW by 20.75 (SW by 30) South Laurel (5-5) at Perry County Central (8-2) - PCC by 28.7 (PCC by 33) Letcher County Central (3-6) at Lincoln County (4-6) - LCC by 7.45 (Lincoln by 7) Pulaski County (3-7) at Harlan County (9-1) - HC by 33.55 (HC by 20) Class 6A - Region 1 Southern (4-6) at Henderson County (7-3) - HC by 35 (HC by 49) Daviess County (3-7) at Pleasure Ridge Park (8-2) - PRP by 45.35 (PRP by 48) Seneca (2-8) at Marshall County (6-4) - SHS by 0.35 (SHS by 6) Muhlenberg County (0-9) at Butler (8-2) - BHS by 86.3 (BHS by 41) Class 6A - Region 2 Male (3-7) at Meade County (4-6) - MC by 10 (H by 29) Nelson County (1-9) at St. Xavier (6-4) - X by 61.85 (X by 64) duPont Manual (8-2) at Central Hardin (6-4) - M by 13.4 (M by 29) Simon Kenton (2-8) at Trinity (9-0) - T by 63 (T by 72) Class 6A - Region 3 Paul L. Dunbar (1-9) at Eastern (8-2) - EHS by 39.65 (EHS by 46) Fern Creek (4-6) at Bryan Station (6-4) - BS by 14.85 (BS by 50) Henry Clay (3-7) at Ballard (4-6) - BHS by 9.55 (BHS by 17) Oldham County (2-8) at Scott County (10-0) - SC by 39.95 (SC by 40) Class 6A - Region 4 Tates Creek (3-7) at Campbell County (3-7) - CC by 16 (CC by 2) Dixie Heights (3-7) at Lafayette (7-3) - LHS by 13.95 (LHS by 14) George Rogers Clark (3-7) at Ryle (6-4) - RHS by 27.55 (RHS by 14) Boone County (6-4) at Madison Central (5-5) - BC by 10.6 (BC by 7)

Thanks for correcting me. The play I was referring to was from the 1995 game when Rockcastle's running back appeared to have broken the goal line but the ref said his knee was down. From the video that I saw many times within a couple years after that, it looked like the RB's knee hit the defender while he was on the way down. Either way, a call had to be made and one team was going to be upset with it.

Not sure if this is correct, but I think the last time these two teams met in the playoffs on either team's field was in 1996 when I was a senior in high school. Rock lost in overtime on a VERY controversial call.

This is just a thought, but since the KHSAA has had other schools play-up after a split in the past, would it be out of bounds to think that just for next season that both of the new schools will still be in 6A and redistricting would occur after that? On another note, what will be the mascot and colors of the new school? Just curious.

Good thing he got that many yards tonight cause it'll be the end of the road next week when they go up to Highlands. Guess coach Matney knew he better get J.J. all the yards he could tonight even if it was a blowout.

They will be at Garrard County

I think Boyle County will be too much for Rock, but you never know. It will be tough to get out of this region for sure.

Final from Mount Vernon.

Marion County finally gets on the board with 9:34 to go in the game. The 2-pt conversion is good. The rock lead is cut down to 39-8.

Sorry for the lack of posting...was listening to the Northern Kentucky University men's basketball team as they beat West Virginia University in an exhibition game...GO NORSE! As for this game, Rock leads 39-0 left in the 3rd quarter.

At the half, Rockcastle County leads 26-0.

Marion County finally catches a break as Rockcastle fumbles the ball away. Marion takes over at the Rock 28...the Rock jumps offside...Marion has it at the Rock 23.

Internet feed cut out yet again. Ugh. Stat of the night... Marion County had run 12 plays for a total of -41 yards with only two plays for positive yards.

When the wheels fall off, the fall a BIG TIME. Rockcastle County squib kicks the ball and marion County doesn't get to it and the Rockets recover the ball and the Marion 28.

TOUCHDOWN ROCKETS!!! Bradley scores again, this time from 5-yards out. The extra point kick was no good. Rock now leads 20-0 with 7:31 left in the second quarter.

The first turnover of the night goes in favor of the Rockets. Spencer Childress picks off the pass and returns it inside the Marion 15.

Rock forces Marion into yet another punt...but there is a penalty on the play...roughing the kicker. Marion maintains the ball and earns their first 1st down of the game. The Rock offensive and defensive lines are dominating the game. Marion County probably has -40 yards of offense already.

TOUCHDOWN ROCKETS!!! BB Bradley runs it in from 14 yards out with just :02 remaining in the first quarter. Chris Luna's kick is just under the cross bar. Rock now leads 14-0.