Okay ladies and gentlemen, it is once again that time of year for me to break out the Hensley Rating System for the Kentucky HS football playoffs.

 

The rating is simple to explain. I combine the Cantrall Rating from the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Lit Rating from the Louisville Courier-Journal and divide that by two (since there is just two factors at question) to get the average. That average is the HRS.

 

Over the last few seasons, I have done a post-season version of the HRS with predictions of every game and have been fairly successful. Now most first round games will be easy to predict, but others are not. I have been known from time to time to be exactly correct in how close a game will be while others have been way off.

 

Disclaimer: Please remember that this is NOT an official BGP poll nor should these predictions be used for any type of gambling. This is just one person having WAY TOO MUCH free time and loving to crunch numbers. Also, please don’t think that this is exactly how I think the games will go. There are some games throughout the six classes that I think will go a different way than the HRS is predicting.

 

To get the margin at which one team is predicted to win by, take the home team’s HRS and add six points for home field advantage and then subtract the visiting team’s HRS. If the number is positive, the home team should win by that much, and if it is negative, the visiting team should win by that much.

 

If this is still confusing, please ask me to explain better in a constructive manner.

 

So with all of this out of the way, here is the HRS for every team still playing in ALL classes and the HRS predictions:

 

129.20 Trinity (Louisville)

115.05 Highlands

113.00 Bowling Green

109.20 John Hardin

109.20 St. Xavier

104.60 Scott County

104.05 Covington Catholic

100.50 Warren Central

98.05 Lexington Catholic

97.80 Boyle County

96.80 duPont Manual

96.30 Butler

93.65 Bell County

93.55 Franklin County

93.20 Boone County

92.85 Harlan County

92.85 Ryle

91.30 Eastern

91.25 Beechwood

91.25 Madisonville-North Hopkins

91.10 Henderson County

90.60 Central

90.60 Newport Central Catholic

90.35 Christian County

90.20 Pleasure Ridge Park

89.35 Paducah Tilghman

89.30 Ashland Blazer

88.90 Franklin-Simpson

88.85 Johnson Central

88.65 Collins

88.65 Mayfield

88.55 Male

88.50 Glasgow

87.60 Jeffersontown

86.65 Belfry

85.85 Holy Cross - Lou.

85.40 Lafayette

84.80 Conner

84.80 Rockcastle County

84.05 Anderson County

83.65 Bryan Station

83.50 Holy Cross - Cov.

82.65 Fort Campbell

82.20 Breathitt County

82.05 Owensboro Catholic

81.95 Southwestern

81.25 Ballard

80.75 Danville

80.75 North Hardin

80.55 Somerset

80.40 Lone Oak

78.90 Perry County Central

78.65 Hazard

78.50 North Oldham

78.10 Montgomery County

78.05 North Bullitt

76.85 Campbell County

75.15 Pike County Central

74.90 Bardstown

74.90 Owensboro

74.55 Greenwood

74.15 Edmonson County

72.15 DeSales

71.40 Fairview

69.45 Murray

69.25 Garrard County

68.65 Christian Academy - Lou.

67.75 Western

66.80 Seneca

66.60 Corbin

66.60 Lexington Christian

66.50 Mercer County

66.35 Monroe County

63.10 Butler County

62.60 Wayne County

61.95 Pikeville

59.80 Hancock County

59.80 Raceland

59.40 Owen County

58.95 Bourbon County

58.80 Frankfort

58.45 Lincoln County

57.50 Russell

57.45 Kentucky Country Day

56.70 Spencer County

56.05 Powell County

54.05 Lawrence County

52.05 Leslie County

49.45 Campbellsville

48.75 Harlan

48.05 Russellville

47.90 Williamsburg

45.55 Bellevue

44.30 Lloyd Memorial

42.70 Nicholas County

26.10 Ludlow

 

Class 1A - Region 1

Kentucky Country Day at Mayfield - MHS by 37.2

Russellville at Lou. Holy Cross - HC by 43.8

 

Class 1A - Region 2

Bellevue at Frankfort - FHS by 19.25

Ludlow at Beechwood - BHS by 71.15

 

Class 1A - Region 3

Harlan at Williamsburg - WHS by 5.15

Campbellsville at Hazard - HHS by 35.2

 

Class 1A - Region 4

Nicholas County at Fairview - FHS by 34.7

Raceland at Pikeville - PHS by 8.15

 

Class 2A - Region 1

Hancock County at Murray - MHS by 15.65

Butler County at Owensboro Catholic - OC by 24.95

 

Class 2A - Region 2

Bardstown at Glasgow - GHS by 19.6

DeSales at Christian Academy of Louisville - CAl by 2.5

Class 2A - Region 3

Cov. Holy Cross at Owen County - HC by 18.1

Lloyd Memorial at Newport Central Cathollic - NCC by 52.3

 

Class 2A - Region 4

Danville at Somerset - SHS by 5.8

Lexington Christian at Leslie County - LCA by 8.55

 

Class 3A - Region 1

Monroe County at Paducah Tilghman - PT by 29

Fort Campbell at Edmonson County - FC by 2.5

 

Class 3A - Region 2

Corbin at Central - Central by 30

Wayne County at Bell county - BC by 37.05

Class 3A - Region 3

Russell at Garrard County - GC by 17.75

Powell County at Bourbon County - BC by 8.9

Class 3A - Region 4

Pike County Central at Breathitt County - BC by 13.05

Lawrence County at Belfry - BHS by 40.6

 

Class 4A - Region 1

Owensboro at Lone Oak - LO by 11.5

Madisonville-North Hopkins at Franklin-Simpson - F-S by 3.65

 

Class 4A - Region 2

Spencer County at Collins - MLC by 37.95

North Oldham at Western - NO by 4.75

 

Class 4A - Region 3

Mercer County at Lexington Catholic - LC by 37.55

Boyle County at Rockcastle County - BC by 7

 

Class 4A - Region 4

Johnson Central at Highlands - HHS by 32.2

Covington Catholic at Ashland Blazer - CCH by 8.75

Class 5A - Region 1

Warren Central at Christian County - WC by 4.15

Greenwood at Bowling Green - BG by 44.45

 

Class 5A - Region 2

North Hardin at John Hardin - JH by 34.45

Jeffersontown at North Bullitt - J'town by 3.55

Class 5A - Region 3

Montgomery County at Anderson County - AC by 11.95

Conner at Franklin County - FC by 14.75

Class 5A - Region 4

Perry County Central at Southwestern - SW by 9.05

Lincoln County at Harlan County - HC by 40.4

Class 6A - Region 1

Pleasure Ridge Park at Henderson County - HC by 6.9

Seneca at Butler - BHS by 35.5

 

Class 6A - Region 2

Male at St. Xavier - X by 26.65

duPont Manual at Trinity - T by 38.4

Class 6A - Region 3

Bryan Station at Eastern - EHS by 13.65

Ballard at Scott County - SC by 29.35

 

Class 6A - Region 4

Lafayette at Campbell County - LHS by 0.55

Boone County at Ryle - RHS by 5.65

Thanks!!

 

Later.

so Beechwood by 72 was a bad idea??