Hellcats

I agree. An official mentioned last week that America should pay for the ALL American companies to move out of China. I’m OK with that.

Population Tenn: 6 million KY: 4 million Covid deaths as of today: Tenn: 152 KY: 154 CDC total deaths from 2/1–4/18 Tenn: 16,058 KY: 9305 Seems legit...

Coronavirus stats I don’t believe: 1. China 2. Iran 3. Tennessee Nearly triple the cases of KY but the same amount of deaths.

I don’t know. You may be right. By the time we add the deaths 42,000 as of today, the next surge that happens about mid May, and these suicides, overdoses, heart attacks, etc. because of the shut down we may get to WW2 numbers.

4 million people in KY 5% = 200,000 Spread them over 6 months = 33k per month Per IMHE site— 6210 hospital beds 428 ICU beds Reality is we don’t control the concentration or location, so the above is a beat case scenario. Math doesn’t work for herd immunity to be a viable and safe option for the citizens of our state much less our country.

I haven’t seen Drs’ offices flooded in my community. Seems like people are avoiding them more than anything. But I’m certain there is hysteria. Your number of 90% leaves 10% of people who may deal with a serious case of coronavirus. That’s millions of very sick people to achieve herd immunity. Healthcare system can’t handle that load.

50-75% show no symptoms, but that leaves 25-50% that have a very different experience. That’s a lot of people and a lot of strain on the healthcare system, which will mean more death from Covid and other causes. There really are few options without a ton of testing that we aren’t near. The current approach is the only option, but I do agree with you the current approach will not last.

I am repeating. 70-80% of the population has to be infected by the disease for herd immunity. Shoddy math---250 million Americans get the disease 7-10 million American deaths at the current mortality rate. Are we willing to trade this many lives for the economy ?

Nah, don’t do that. Take care of yourself and some of these folks will be wondering WTH happened.

3 weeks. Just enough time for it to get ramped back up. Herd Immunity works in diseases like Chicken pox where mom and dad and older brother and doctor can be around the kid that has it without getting sick. It doesn’t work with Novel viruses without massive loss of life.

Let’s not forget there have been “healthy” people die from this. If we tried the reopening or the herd immunity too early, more “healthy” people would die because of the strained healthcare system.

Flatten the curve strategy was really the only option. 1% of our population is 3.6 million people. Also that number is much higher (2-4%) when countries have let the virus rage. A percentage of those would be first responders and healthcare workers who have no choices, but to help and possibly die. The suicide, overdose, heart attack, etc. numbers wouldn't come close to that 3 million. We don't know who has an immune system compromised. Easy to say just old people, but 1 in 4 of the hospitalized patients in NYC were under 50 and some with zero preexisting conditions. I did see Oxford has a vaccine coming in September and a drug called Remdesivir is in trial in Chicago and has been successful. So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel

Smithfield closed more and Tyson closed at least one.

The closure of meat packing plants in the Midwest due to massive amounts of cases of CV is extremely concerning. Those people work with PPE on.

After what I saw around the country on the news last night, I'm taking over 100k. One month and the high likelihood of 35k deaths doesn't seem to be enough to scare America.

It may be September 2021. I was trying to be optimistic. Both of those diseases have a vaccine and a degree of herd immunity. If they were uncontrolled there would be no school until the vaccine was developed. School children will be required to get the shot, or their parents will get to continue "homeschool."

KY 1400+ schools 700k+ students and staff 5 days a weeks. Schools are out until we get a vaccine, or the case number is near 0. There is not enough Lysol and Purel to keep a middle school clean. I can't see school starting until after Labor Day.

I do wonder if the situation we are in may help those awful projections. There has to be a some personal responsibility that isn't there in a normal job loss or economic downturn that the Lancet studies reviewed. The whole "we're in it together" has to help the guilt and despair. Of course if this stretches to next March...or longer...:down: Mental health has been a focus of many states' plans to help their citizens. I hope that continues once this virus crisis ends.

Some tests were ended early because of side effects of cardiac issues and suicidal tendencies.

Sounds like Kentucky has some folks who don’t care tonight.

I would say poetic justice, but they are going to put others and healthcare workers in danger.

Yep. We're gonna blow past 68,000.

Right! The 19 year old is way more expensive!! Who in their right mind decided that 17-24 year olds didn't deserve anything? A good portion of those kids are some of the most displaced: Schools closed, service jobs closed.

You can keep coronavirus from infecting thousands, just by staying home - Vox Found it. To figure out just how infectious a disease is, experts use the basic reproduction number, called the R0 (pronounced “R naught”). That refers to how many other people one sick person will infect on average in a group that doesn’t already have immunity. The higher the R0, the higher the likelihood that many people will get sick. The R0 for the common flu is 1.3. So, if you get the flu, you will, on average, pass that on to 1.3 people. Montgomery calculates that if each of those 1.3 people pass it on to another 1.3 people, and that keeps on happening 10 times, then by the 10th time, 14 people will have the flu. (That’s because 1.3 to the power of 10 is 13.786. He’s rounding up a bit.) The coronavirus, however, is more contagious than the common flu. Experts are still trying to figure out the R0, and in any case it’s not something that’s precisely fixed, since diseases behave differently in different environments and some people (known as “super-spreaders”) are more contagious than others. But the World Health Organization says most estimates of the coronavirus’s R0 are around 2 or 2.5, while some estimates put it as high as 3.11. Montgomery uses an R0 of 3 to make his calculations. “So every person passes to it three — now that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but if each of those three pass it to three and that happens in 10 layers, I have been responsible for infecting 59,000 people,” he says. (That’s because 3 to the power of ten is 59,049. He’s rounding down a bit.)

My Walmart runs a 1/5> of what it normally does. Of course, Walmart for food and essentials is different from going out to restaurants, nonessential shopping, and all that consumerism that is needed to bring the economy roaring back.