Short answer no I don't think Paul can win the Republican nomination. If Gingrich wins Iowa this thing is over. N.H. will go to Romney and Gingrich will dominate in the southern states that vote early. If Gingrich wins 4 of the first 5 states to go the primary is over.

 

I have to completely disagree with this analysis. This article does a good job at making the case. /Link/

 

 

Consider some simple math. Between the four states where there will be primaries and caucuses in January, only 115 delegates will be decided: 28 in Iowa (January 3), 12 in New Hampshire (January 10), 25 in South Carolina (January 21) and 50 in Florida (January 31).

 

There are a total of 2,285 delegates available - nearly 20 times as many delegates as will be allocated in January. In Texas alone - where the primacy is currently set for March, though it could be moved back - there are 155 delegates to be had. And there are more delegates to be had in June - 405 - than the 311 there are to be had in January and February combined.

 

That doesn't mean that the early states aren't important - the momentum that a candidate can earn from winning both New Hampshire and Iowa, which translates into a flood of fundraising and positive media coverage, can be enough to propel him or her the nomination. But it does mean that we should keep those contests in perspective.

 

There's another important factor to consider as well. New rules adopted by Republicans mandate that delegates awarded before April 1 be distributed on a proportional basis, which will make it harder for a frontrunner to deliver a knockout blow with winner-take-all victories in the early states. A candidate who wins just 15 percent of the vote in a state will be able to add to his or her delegate count.

 

It's a situation that has Mitt Romney settling in for a long slog to the nomination.

I have to completely disagree with this analysis. This article does a good job at making the case. /Link/

 

 

Consider some simple math. Between the four states where there will be primaries and caucuses in January, only 115 delegates will be decided: 28 in Iowa (January 3), 12 in New Hampshire (January 10), 25 in South Carolina (January 21) and 50 in Florida (January 31).

 

There are a total of 2,285 delegates available - nearly 20 times as many delegates as will be allocated in January. In Texas alone - where the primacy is currently set for March, though it could be moved back - there are 155 delegates to be had. And there are more delegates to be had in June - 405 - than the 311 there are to be had in January and February combined.

 

That doesn't mean that the early states aren't important - the momentum that a candidate can earn from winning both New Hampshire and Iowa, which translates into a flood of fundraising and positive media coverage, can be enough to propel him or her the nomination. But it does mean that we should keep those contests in perspective.

 

There's another important factor to consider as well. New rules adopted by Republicans mandate that delegates awarded before April 1 be distributed on a proportional basis, which will make it harder for a frontrunner to deliver a knockout blow with winner-take-all victories in the early states. A candidate who wins just 15 percent of the vote in a state will be able to add to his or her delegate count.

 

It's a situation that has Mitt Romney settling in for a long slog to the nomination.

 

Your own statement shows why I think it will be over, media coverage. National polls are going strongly to Gingrich at this point, I can't imagine his numbers will drop much if any if he wins 4 of the first 5. If he wins 3 and the other 2 are won by different people with Gingrich making strong showings in both I see no way anyone else can catch him in the other states or in the long haul. His donations will go way up with each win, and his national media coverage will increase. His national numbers are running away from everyone right now at close to 40%. Romney can sit for the long haul but with each loss his situation becomes harder and he will be harder pressed for media coverage with each stop.

Still have no clue what people see in Gingrich. A vote for Newt might as well be cast for Obama.

Still have no clue what people see in Gingrich. A vote for Newt might as well be cast for Obama.

 

Same for Romney, I think you will see most evangelicals stay home if Romney wins. I don't think the Republicans have a great candidate this year. The party base is going to be hard to inspire no matter who wins.

Same for Romney, I think you will see most evangelicals stay home if Romney wins. I don't think the Republicans have a great candidate this year. The party base is going to be hard to inspire no matter who wins.

:thumb: :thumb:

Your own statement shows why I think it will be over, media coverage. National polls are going strongly to Gingrich at this point, I can't imagine his numbers will drop much if any if he wins 4 of the first 5. If he wins 3 and the other 2 are won by different people with Gingrich making strong showings in both I see no way anyone else can catch him in the other states or in the long haul. His donations will go way up with each win, and his national media coverage will increase. His national numbers are running away from everyone right now at close to 40%. Romney can sit for the long haul but with each loss his situation becomes harder and he will be harder pressed for media coverage with each stop.

 

You are assuming that once Gingrich wins Iowa and possibly SC and Florida that he will receive boat loads of money and endorsements. He probably will receive these endorsements and get more money but that only means he will be catching up with Mitt it terms of money and organization. The first few states such as Iowa is filled with old white people that do not have any similarities with the average voter. When the race gets to places like Nevada and when more stories come out about Newt and when Newt starts speaking and saying things before he thinks, the gap will diminish. The media, no matter how many states Romney loses, will have to pay attention to Romney because he will have the money and organization. This isn't going to be like every other primary. Romney will have donors no matter if he loses the first few states. When the race is getting tighter, people like Christie will appeal to the voters and bring a lot of people to Romney's side. Gingrich doesn't want to make this into a long race. It will not be for his benefit.

You are assuming that once Gingrich wins Iowa and possibly SC and Florida that he will receive boat loads of money and endorsements. He probably will receive these endorsements and get more money but that only means he will be catching up with Mitt it terms of money and organization. The first few states such as Iowa is filled with old white people that do not have any similarities with the average voter. When the race gets to places like Nevada and when more stories come out about Newt and when Newt starts speaking and saying things before he thinks, the gap will diminish. The media, no matter how many states Romney loses, will have to pay attention to Romney because he will have the money and organization. This isn't going to be like every other primary. Romney will have donors no matter if he loses the first few states. When the race is getting tighter, people like Christie will appeal to the voters and bring a lot of people to Romney's side. Gingrich doesn't want to make this into a long race. It will not be for his benefit.

 

You also have tons of groups that will do anything to field a candidate not named Mitt Romney. If it starts etching out Newt will step back from his positive approach and start to attack Romney. Once Romney's record is exposed he is done. How do you attack Obamacare when it was based on Romneycare?

 

Also, how does Romney get the evangelicals out, if Romney appears to be in winning distant I think you will see evangelicals flock to the polls to nominate a non-mormon candidate. The Mormon church is not accept by 90%+ of the evangelical community and in fact is despised by most of the community, Romneycare and Mormonism will sink his ship before this is over. The religious right still have massive sway in the party and they won't go down quietly and give the nomination to Romney.

Still have no clue what people see in Gingrich. A vote for Newt might as well be cast for Obama.

 

It worries me too. Gotta give him credit, he's a darn good debater.

Same for Romney, I think you will see most evangelicals stay home if Romney wins. I don't think the Republicans have a great candidate this year. The party base is going to be hard to inspire no matter who wins.

What exactly are we going off of here? Would you not consider them to be strong candidates when the top two prospects are beating Obama in numerous polls and key swing states?

What exactly are we going off of here? Would you not consider them to be strong candidates when the top two prospects are beating Obama in numerous polls and key swing states?

 

They are dominating the media, when it becomes general election time the polls will balance out. Obama is sitting quietly waiting on a republican nomination. If you look back to 2004 most democrats were out polling Bush at that time as well. I think this will be a tight race, but I think the lack of enthusiasm both will generate for the party base is why they will ultimately lose in November.

You also have tons of groups that will do anything to field a candidate not named Mitt Romney. If it starts etching out Newt will step back from his positive approach and start to attack Romney. Once Romney's record is exposed he is done. How do you attack Obamacare when it was based on Romneycare?

His record has been exposed. Everyone knows about 'Romneycare.' You're acting like that is in the shadows when its been in the open the whole primary season. Gingrich isn't innocent on the mandate issue either. He did support it, as Romney pointed out in the debate.

 

Also, how does Romney get the evangelicals out, if Romney appears to be in winning distant I think you will see evangelicals flock to the polls to nominate a non-mormon candidate. The Mormon church is not accept by 90%+ of the evangelical community and in fact is despised by most of the community, Romneycare and Mormonism will sink his ship before this is over. The religious right still have massive sway in the party and they won't go down quietly and give the nomination to Romney.

 

I have posted on this subject before. To say that evangelicals will not vote for a mormon is just stupid. Its all assumptions. In 2008 he came in second in Iowa, NH and almost won Florida. These states have primary voters, like I said before, that are white, extreme christians and are usually up there in age. If he pulled it off in 2008 with being a mormon, I don't see why he can't this time around. There is no source, poll, document to suggest that Romney's faith will be a major factor.

His record has been exposed. Everyone knows about 'Romneycare.' You're acting like that is in the shadows when its been in the open the whole primary season. Gingrich isn't innocent on the mandate issue either. He did support it, as Romney pointed out in the debate.

 

 

 

I have posted on this subject before. To say that evangelicals will not vote for a mormon is just stupid. Its all assumptions. In 2008 he came in second in Iowa, NH and almost won Florida. These states have primary voters, like I said before, that are white, extreme christians and are usually up there in age. If he pulled it off in 2008 with being a mormon, I don't see why he can't this time around. There is no source, poll, document to suggest that Romney's faith will be a major factor.

 

New Hampshire is open primary so independents can come vote for him in it. Florida is it's own beast and Iowa is all about who has the supporters that will stay the latest and be the most hard headed. Those three states do nothing to convince me Romney will do well nationally. And if you think Southern Baptists will get out and go door to door for Romney like they would for Bush you are crazy. Every evangelical leader I've been around (and it's been a lot) have all professed the mormon church as a bad thing. Outside of Utah, being a mormon will hurt him a lot more than it will help him. And while he can be the preferred choice over Obama doesn't mean evangelicals will feel inspired to make that extra effort to get to the polls to vote for him.

It worries me too. Gotta give him credit, he's a darn good debater.

 

Some might even be inclined to call him a master...

I also know southern baptist are the end all to end all of the religious right, but they dominate the south by a large margin, and a republican can not win the white house if he does not carry every southern state. Obama will have advantages in southern states like the Carolina's and Mississippi. If evangelicals don't turn out in drones for Romney the African American vote would put many southern states in the potential win column for democrats.

New Hampshire is open primary so independents can come vote for him in it. Florida is it's own beast and Iowa is all about who has the supporters that will stay the latest and be the most hard headed. Those three states do nothing to convince me Romney will do well nationally. And if you think Southern Baptists will get out and go door to door for Romney like they would for Bush you are crazy. Every evangelical leader I've been around (and it's been a lot) have all professed the mormon church as a bad thing. Outside of Utah, being a mormon will hurt him a lot more than it will help him. And while he can be the preferred choice over Obama doesn't mean evangelicals will feel inspired to make that extra effort to get to the polls to vote for him.

 

I actually find it pretty insulting that you are making assumptions that evangelicals and southern baptists will not vote for him just because he is a mormon. There is absolutely no evidence to back that up. Its not a good argument. You can make excuses as to why which state voted the way it did but when it comes down to it, Romney got votes in the heavy right-wing part of the country.