November 8, 200916 yr The line is in place to get equal amounts of bettors on each side. Of course that doesn't always work out and that is why the line moves. That really just isn't the case no matter how many times you say it. http://www.ultimatecapper.com/sports-betting-articles-15.htm
November 8, 200916 yr Using this Bengals game as an example the general public is going to take the Bengals this week IMO. They are 5-2 and getting points from a team they beat already. I'd take Baltimore in a heart beat this week b/c I think the books are trying to get action on the Bengals.
November 8, 200916 yr Using this Bengals game as an example the general public is going to take the Bengals this week IMO. They are 5-2 and getting points from a team they beat already. I'd take Baltimore in a heart beat this week b/c I think the books are trying to get action on the Bengals. I'm pretty sure the line got to 3.5 in some places during the week which means the money is not being places on Cincy.
November 8, 200916 yr And that is right no matter how many times you say its not. :lol: I know its Wiki but its true.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_betting The general role of the bookmaker is to act as a market maker for sports wagers, most of which have a binary outcome: a team either wins or loses. The bookmaker accepts both wagers, and maintains a spread (the vigorish) which will ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the wager. However, the key assumption is that the total amount wagered is equal on each side, or within a certain percentage of equality. An imbalance results in a certain amount of exposure (event risk) to the bookmaker. To avoid this, bookmakers adjust their prices to attempt to balance wagering, so that they get the same amount of money on both sides. This can be viewed as a form of arbitrage.
November 8, 200916 yr Using this Bengals game as an example the general public is going to take the Bengals this week IMO. They are 5-2 and getting points from a team they beat already. I'd take Baltimore in a heart beat this week b/c I think the books are trying to get action on the Bengals. http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/ConsensusPick/consensus-pick.aspx?sport=nfl&sportID=1&eventID=26494&t=0 [baltimore] 59.55% VS. 40.45% [Cincinnati] Consensus on ATS Visitor Wagers Line Home Wagers Line Baltimore 1871 -3 Cincinnati 1271 +3 Baltimore 1871 Cincinnati 1271 Consensus on Over/Under Over Wagers Total Under Wagers 712 43.5 777 11 44 10 230 44.5 299 953 1086
November 8, 200916 yr And that is right no matter how many times you say its not. :lol: I know its Wiki but its true.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_betting The general role of the bookmaker is to act as a market maker for sports wagers, most of which have a binary outcome: a team either wins or loses. The bookmaker accepts both wagers, and maintains a spread (the vigorish) which will ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the wager. However, the key assumption is that the total amount wagered is equal on each side, or within a certain percentage of equality. An imbalance results in a certain amount of exposure (event risk) to the bookmaker. To avoid this, bookmakers adjust their prices to attempt to balance wagering, so that they get the same amount of money on both sides. This can be viewed as a form of arbitrage. Wikipedia I'd bet any amount of money that I'm right on this. It's my business to know this. I'd also be willing to bet that sports books get within 6% of eqaul pay on less than 10% of the games. There are thousands of games and they are getting equal play very rarely. So why would they not use that to their advantage?
November 8, 200916 yr http://contests.covers.com/Handicapping/ConsensusPick/consensus-pick.aspx?sport=nfl&sportID=1&eventID=26494&t=0 [baltimore] 59.55% VS. 40.45% [Cincinnati] Consensus on ATS Visitor Wagers Line Home Wagers Line Baltimore 1871 -3 Cincinnati 1271 +3 Baltimore 1871 Cincinnati 1271 Consensus on Over/Under Over Wagers Total Under Wagers 712 43.5 777 11 44 10 230 44.5 299 953 1086 Those aren't bets.
November 8, 200916 yr Wikipedia I'd bet any amount of money that I'm right on this. It's my business to know this. I'd also be willing to bet that sports books get within 6% of eqaul pay on less than 10% of the games. There are thousands of games and they are getting equal play very rarely. So why would they not use that to their advantage? I am sure it does happen a lot and they do use it to their advantage but that is now how they are made to operate. They want even money on each side to minimize their amount of risk and secure profit.
November 8, 200916 yr I just checked out thespread.com and it does look like the public bet is on Baltimore this week. That's a great website IMO. It has a lot of info.
November 8, 200916 yr I am sure it does happen a lot and they do use it to their advantage but that is now how they are made to operate. They want even money on each side to minimize their amount of risk and secure profit. But they don't get it. In all honesty it would be great to just collect the juice, but it doesn't happen so they maximize their profit by winning more than they lose. Their goal is to have the team that covers the spread to be the team they have the least amount of money on.
November 8, 200916 yr I just checked out thespread.com and it does look like the public bet is on Baltimore this week. That's a great website IMO. It has a lot of info. Don't trust mine I see.
November 8, 200916 yr Funny you should say that because last I checked the Bengals beat both. There is one team that is 3-0 in the div. and until that changes the Bengals are the talk of the AFC North. If you look, I said "I think that Pittsburgh is the class of the division", says I was giving my opinion. Now Houston beat Cincy, and I don't think they're a better team, but using your logic says they are. All I am saying is that I am not convinced that Cincy is for real and these next 2 weeks will somewhat determine my opinion.
November 8, 200916 yr ^That is fine. If we are looking at only this season, which obviously we can't do because history helps determine our opinions, then the Bengals have been a more complete team that Pittsburgh and Baltimore so far this season. Time will tell... I'm about to head down to the game, WHO DEY!
November 8, 200916 yr Don't trust mine I see. Well the people that pick those aren't actually wagering so no I don't trust it. The Spread actually uses real money bet as info.
November 8, 200916 yr Well the people that pick those aren't actually wagering so no I don't trust it. The Spread actually uses real money bet as info. It's still people that bet. It's pretty much going to be the same thing.
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