I predict (hope) an upset! ! !

Dick Morris and Karl Rove were both giving their expert opinion based on their experience.

 

Obama's number to watch is NOT the gap between him and McCain but rather Obama's % of the vote. It seems that those who will vote for O have decided to vote for O.

 

This election is NOT about McCain but rather they will vote for O or not. And if they are still undecided for O 4 days before the election, they are not going to go to Obama.

 

So, if his numbers are peaking out at 48-49% and their inclination about undecideds are true and they go McCain's way, McCain has a shot to pull this out.

 

 

 

I really find the strategy of this so very interesting.

 

So you/they are betting on the Bradley effect?

My opinion is that McCain will end up winning Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina. Unfortunately, Obama will still win, but by a small margin.

 

I agre that both North Carolina and Virginia are competitive, which is quite an accomplishment for Obama, but I just don't see him carrying either state.

 

Up until now I've said that I will not believe that VA will go Dem when it happens.

 

However, sitting here in VA, the one factor that is convincing me more and more it will go for Obama is the "fed up" factor. Right or wrong, there is a huge movement of "throw them out," mentality. A lot of that has to do with the parts of VA that has been reeling economically for 10 years and now the rest of VA is suffering through the current problems.

 

Mark Warner (who I hope will run for Prez one day) is sweeping Jim Gilmore (former GOP head) totally away. Even on our local level long time Congressman Goode ® is in a huge fight with upstart Perriello (D) and Good has won by double digits for a long time.

 

Recent in state polls suggest a lead for Obama and it should be very close.

 

There are 2 things in this election that each party ought to set up and take notice of.

 

1. The Democrats had a prime opportunity to elect someone in a landslide. All the factors show (economy, war, distrust, dislike of current administration) that this could have been an easy election and wasn't. They nominated someone who actually might lose what should have been the easiest slam dunk since Reagan over Carter.

 

2. The Republicans have had to fight too hard for states they normally control. VA, GE, FL, NC have been solid GOP for a while and yet they've had to expend so much energy holding on to them that this should tell them that they've left their base and their message was not consistent enough to lock in their dependable states.

The Economist does a cool "World Electoral" map. McCain supporters, probably won't like it much, though.

I would not be surprised that a good protion of the undecided just does not vote.

 

My mom is not voting for Obama, (she still feels rejected that Hillary did not win... :lol:), but she will not vote for McCain either.

I see Arizona is down to a 3-4 point lead for McCain and Obama is pushing hard. :eek:

 

 

Nearly even today, says it all.