Later today and tonight, a very dangerous situation is developing. The Storm Prediction Center has issued the highest risk category for western Kentucky. That area is now under a level 5 high risk for storms that could produce an outbreak of tornadoes.

The enhanced risk area has been expanded eastward to now include Cincinnati/NKY, Lexington, Richmond, and Frankfort. The level 4 moderate risk area now extends to include Louisville and Bowling Green.

 

Today and tonight, there is a chance of tornadoes moving from areas of the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley westward into the eastern Ozarks. Numerous tornadoes, along with several long-track EF3+ tornadoes, seem likely.

Model forecasts are in relatively good agreement that scattered discrete convective initiation will take place well to the east of the front near the instability axis during the mid- to late afternoon. Forecast soundings across the mid-Mississippi Valley from 5 to 8 pm EDT show conditions will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Models are in good agreement, developing a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet max centered over far western Tennessee at 8 pm EDT. As supercells move eastward into the low-level jet, very strong low-level shear will be favorable for numerous tornadoes. The most intense tornadic supercells will be capable of producing long-track EF3+ tornadoes. Multiple EF3+ tornadoes are expected in the mid-Mississippi Valley. The duration of the tornado threat should persist from afternoon into the evening. A potential for supercells and tornadoes will extend northward into the lower Ohio Valley and southwestward into the southern Ozarks. In those two locations, the more intense discrete supercells could produce strong tornadoes.

Everyone needs to pay attention to the situation and start getting ready for this event immediately. The situation that is developing for tonight and later this evening could be extremely dangerous.

 

 

This is the latest skewed-t chart for western Kentucky. I'm genuinely growing more concerned about that part of the state. The chart is showing numbers; in my limited time of using it, I've never seen. The STP (cin) is a 9.4 out of 15. The EFF inflow is 527. Anything over 150 means strong tornadoes are possible. MLCape is almost 2700. This means there is moderate instability. It wouldn't take much more to go into the strong category. The possible hazard type box is showing that a particularly dangerous tornado of EF3-4 is possible anywhere in a 25-mile radius of a point in western Kentucky. 

This is going to be a very dangerous situation later this evening and into the night, and I hope I am wrong.

 

The very latest NAM 3km simulated radar. Period covered from 8 pm EDT to 8 am EDT Thursday.

 

The latest from the Storm Prediction Center:

 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 020752
   ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MIZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-TXZ000-021800-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and Lower
   Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Western and Middle Tennessee
     Arkansas
     Western and Central Kentucky
     Eastern Missouri
     Illinois
     Northern Mississippi
     Indiana
     Northern Louisiana
     Western Ohio
     North into Northeast Texas
     Southern Lower Michigan

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force
     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...
     A tornado outbreak is expected today and tonight from parts of
     the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South and lower Ohio
     Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple long-track EF3+
     tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes, severe wind
     gusts, and very large hail will be possible across a broad area
     from north Texas northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
 

Due to the upcoming storm and flooding, Kentucky has been placed under a state of emergency.

 

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 021636
   ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-030200-

   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CDT WED APR 02 2025

   ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
   parts of the parts of the Mid-South and the lower Mississippi and
   Ohio River Valleys later today and tonight...

   * LOCATIONS...
     Eastern Arkansas
     Western Tennessee
     Southeast Missouri
     Western Kentucky
     Southern Illinois
     Northwest Mississippi
     Central and Southern Indiana
     Northern Louisiana
     Western Ohio

   * HAZARDS...
     Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track
     Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
     Scattered large hail, some baseball size

   * SUMMARY...
     A tornado outbreak is expected this afternoon into early tonight
     from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South
     and lower Ohio Valley. Numerous tornadoes, along with multiple
     EF3+ tornadoes, appear likely. In addition, tornadoes,
     significant severe wind gusts, and large hail to very large hail
     will be possible across a broad area from north Texas
     northeastward to the southern Great Lakes.

   Preparedness actions...

   Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
   of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
   weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
   watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
   during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
   your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
   interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

Storms are intensifying within a band from western Arkansas into southern Missouri, and additional storm development is likely this afternoon farther northeast into Illinois. Multiple, embedded supercells are developing within this band, and the threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will increase through the afternoon and into the evening as the storms spread into a more favorable downstream environment. Warm sector supercell development appears to be underway across southeast Arkansas/northwest Mississippi, and more development could occur farther northeast into the lower Ohio Valley. 

Severe thunderstorms are still expected to evolve into a more extensive squall line late this afternoon into early tonight, with the potential to produce widespread damaging winds of 65-85 mph into the Ohio Valley. 
Tornadoes, some strong, will be possible with embedded circulations, and especially with any discrete supercells ahead of the line this evening into IN and vicinity.  The damaging-wind threat will persist across much of OH before weakening late tonight across eastern Ohio.

 

 

 

 

Bowling Green needs to be heading to shelter, tornado warned storm moving in from the south!

Wall cloud near Bowling Green… 

 

That storm came pretty much right through where I live - I honestly never saw anything.  It didn't even rain hard.

Just talked to my kids in Bowling Green. They are good not problems as of yet.

5 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

That storm came pretty much right through where I live - I honestly never saw anything.  It didn't even rain hard.

Good.

Please remember this is just the start. The front has yet to come through. All or most of the events so far are the pre-frontal supercell storms that I was worried about. 

 

1 hour ago, TheDeuce said:

 

Messaged one of our old friends out there, said it wasn't bad in Paducah.