Severe Weather Update for Wednesday 5/8/24

[nWo]

From sections of the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid-Mississippi valleys into the southern Plains, numerous severe thunderstorms seem likely on Wednesday. All extreme risks are possible, including as tornadoes, large to extremely large hail, and possibly extremely damaging winds. There could be some powerful tornadoes.

There is still a chance for a complicated but potentially large severe weather episode throughout a large area that stretches from the ArkLaTex area into portions of the mid-MS, OH, and TN Valleys. There will be a chance of strong tornadoes, large to gigantic hail, and destructive winds in broad swaths. All severe hazards will be possible. This morning, a highly moist and unstable warm sector is expected to be present across portions of Oklahoma and Texas, as well as extend eastward and southward along a warm front into the Tennessee, lower Ohio, and mid-Mississippi valleys. Through the day and into the evening, a potentially volatile severe thunderstorm environment will be supported by moderate to strong deep-layer shear and strong to extreme instability, which is enhanced by a plume of midlevel lapse rates migrating eastward from the Plains.

 

Based on these data, the Storm Prediction Center has designated a portion of Kentucky as level 4 Moderate Risk, which is southwest of a line that runs from just south of Madisonville to Bowling Green. Level 3 Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms covers the remaining portion of the state. Except for the Cincinnati/NKY area.

 

 

 

 

[nWo]

Just received this from the NWS-Louisville office:

Quote

● Scattered severe storms are possible today and
tonight and will be capable of tornadoes, very large
hail (+2”) and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes
(≥EF2) can’t be ruled out.
● Additional storms, possibly in the form of a squall
line, are expected late tonight with all severe hazards
still possible.

 

[nWo]

This new map shows the possible hail size.

The SARS method returns a maximum expected hail report by matching existing environmental conditions to historic severe hail cases. These forecast maximum sizes are conditional on severe hail of any size occurring.

This graphic shows the "best guess" maximum hail report.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Here are two new maps. The first is a significant tornado map. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1 within an hour of their occurrence. You can see 4s and 5s for most of Kentucky.

 

 

This next one is the violent tornado map. Research using observed soundings found that 0-3 km CAPE and 0-3 km lapse rate were notable discriminators of violent tornado environments (verses weak and/or significant tornado environments). The 0-3 km CAPE is what I shorten to 3cape when I talk about it in my posts. It is showing 5s and 6s. With the indicated numbers, both maps show. I fully expect tornado watches to be issued later today. 

[nWo]

I figured I would verify today's cloud cover later. Recall from yesterday's conference call that things will get lot worse if there is any clearing or sunshine. Today's covered time frame is from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. EDT.

 

[TheDeuce]

It's already clear in Louisville and clearing as we speak in Frankfort. 

[nWo]

Clouds are breaking here in Richmond.

[Jumper_Dad]

Very overcast with some rain in Somerset, some strong storms just south along Tennessee border.

[nWo]

 

The level 4 Moderate Risk area now includes Madisonville and Bowling Green.

[allsport71]

Sunny in Florence. 

[theguru]

3 minutes ago, allsport71 said:

Sunny in Florence. 

Extremely, I was outside for about 90 minutes this morning, fantastic!

[nWo]

Some school systems are starting to dismiss schools early today.

 

[nWo]

WKU will close it's campus at 1 pm CDT