August 28, 20233 yr 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of Florida. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.
August 28, 20233 yr We are being evacuated and are heading up to my sister's place right next to where we used to live.
August 28, 20233 yr Just now, swamprat said: We are being evacuated and are heading up to my sister's place right next to where we used to live. I was wondering, I figured you were right in the path of Idalia.
August 28, 20233 yr 1 minute ago, theguru said: I was wondering, I figured you were right in the path of Idalia. More so since we moved to Largo. We're just 3 miles from Indian Rocks Beach. Storm surge is not the problem for us, but we live in a 55+ retirement community (mobile home park). ? It would be just my luck to live 40 years in Tampa, move to Largo, and get blown out after one year. We closed on that place a year ago last Saturday.
August 29, 20233 yr Author Idalia is moving northward or 360/7 kt. The storm should continue to be steered northward between a mid-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles through tonight. On Tuesday, a faster north-northeastward motion should begin as a trough moves into the east-central United States. This motion should bring the center of Idalia to the Gulf Coast of Florida on Wednesday. The dynamical models continue to have some spread after 36 hours, with the GFS and HAFS guidance along the western side of the envelope and the ECMWF along the eastern side. The consensus aids were slightly west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP-corrected consensus model. It is still worth stressing that only a small deviation in the track could cause a significant change in Idalia's landfall location in Florida due to the paralleling track to the state's west coast. When Idalia nears the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States the guidance suggests the cyclone will turn more eastward as the aforementioned trough passes to the north of the storm.
August 29, 20233 yr Author Hurricane Idalia is approaching Cat. 2 status. 11 AM Update: Idalia is moving just east of due north, or 005/12 kt, between a mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical ridging over the Greater Antilles. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected while Idalia approaches the Florida coast through Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing that Idalia will reach the coast of Florida adjacent to Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning, with all of the reliable deterministic track models honed in on that area. Track spread remains low during Idalia's expected turn toward the northeast and east-northeast in 48-60 hours, bringing the storm's center near or along the coast of the Carolinas. On days 3 through 5, there is significant uncertainty on whether Idalia will turn out to sea (as shown by the COAMPS-TC and HAFS models) or turn southward (as suggested by the global models). For now, the official forecast shows a slow motion at the end of the forecast period until the scenario becomes clearer. Idalia is currently over a maximum of oceanic heat content associated with the Loop Current, and water temperatures remain 30-31 degrees Celsius along the forecast path up until landfall. Vertical shear is also expected to be low for the next 18-24 hours, and these conditions are expected to foster rapid intensification before Idalia reaches the coast of Florida. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice or evacuation orders given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. 3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday. .
August 29, 20233 yr As of 11am EST, the NHC has it 226 miles southwest of Largo. If it stays on their track, in 12 hours it will be 128 miles away to the southwest of Largo and 143 miles southwest of where we are staying. However, the place we are staying is 0.2 degrees further west of Largo. About an 11 mile difference. The problem with possibly being on the southeast side of the storm is that the hurricane spins counter clockwise, so the storm surge is usually greatest on the southeast side. The storm surge in Largo is predicted to be 4-7 ft. It could be more if the storm intensifies earlier than expected.
August 29, 20233 yr 47 minutes ago, swamprat said: As of 11am EST, the NHC has it 226 miles southwest of Largo. If it stays on their track, in 12 hours it will be 128 miles away to the southwest of Largo and 143 miles southwest of where we are staying. However, the place we are staying is 0.2 degrees further west of Largo. About an 11 mile difference. The problem with possibly being on the southeast side of the storm is that the hurricane spins counter clockwise, so the storm surge is usually greatest on the southeast side. The storm surge in Largo is predicted to be 4-7 ft. It could be more if the storm intensifies earlier than expected. Stay safe. We love that area and vacation frequently in Madeira Beach.
August 29, 20233 yr Author ...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday.
August 30, 20233 yr 7 hours ago, nWo said: This model has the eye pretty much going right over my family in Crawfordville, about 20 miles due south of Tallahassee. Aunt and Uncle evacuated to my cousin and her husband's house a few miles further north. Still in the path but hopefully much sturdier home.
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