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Class 1A Playoff Prognostication


Ram

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Class 1A Regional Championship Games

Crittenden County (.69266) at #8 Holy Cross (Louisville) (.69207)

#3 Newport Central Catholic (.64563) at #7 Kentucky County Day (.66762)

#10 Paintsville (.56070) at #1 Pikeville (.75242)

#5 Hazard(.70255) at #2 Raceland (.72943)

Ranking by RPI

1. Pikeville 

2. Raceland 

3. Hazard

4. Holy Cross (Louisville)

5. Kentucky Country Day

6. Newport Central Catholic

7.  Crittenden County

8.  Paintsville 

BluegrassPreps Rankings

1. Pikeville

2.  Raceland

3.  Newport Central Catholic

5.  Hazard

7.  Kentucky Country Day

8. Holy Cross (Louisville)

10.  Paintsville

Unranked:  Crittenden County

Prognostication

In my mind, this is a three horse race, at this point.  Anything can happen and upsets make for exciting football.  I expect Holy Cross to beat Crittenden County, Newport Central Catholic to beat Kentucky County Day, Pikeville to beat Paintsville (again) and Raceland to beat Hazard. 

Who do you think will move on from Round 3?  Do you have any one different advancing? 

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Class 1A Semi-State Games

#3 Newport Central Catholic (.64563) at #1 Pikeville (.75242) 

#4 Holy Cross (Louisville)(.69207) at #2 Raceland (.72943)

Ranking by RPI

1. Pikeville

2. Raceland

3. Holy Cross (Louisville)

4.  Newport Central Catholic

BluegrassPreps Rankings

1.  Pikeville

2. Raceland

3. Newport Central Catholic

8. Holy Cross (Louisville) 

Prognostication

This round gets a little tighter.  I think, and probably hope more than analyze, that Raceland and Pikeville are on a collision course.  I could wrap my mind around NCC beating Pikeville, but Pikeville is pretty darn good.  But, since I put myself in this position, I think Pikeville with beat NCC and Raceland will beat Holy Cross.  Those two visiting teams have some heavy travel. 

What are your thoughts?  Does anyone have a strong belief that NCC beats Pikeville, I would love to hear a solid analysis for your thoughts?  Likewise with Holy Cross, admittedly the team in this group I know the least about.  Tell what is expected with Holy Cross.

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State Championship Game

Raceland vs. Pikeville 

RPI Rankings

1. Pikeville

2. Raceland

BluegrassPreps Rankings

1. Pikeville

2. Raceland 

Prognostication 

These two teams have a pretty long history, dating back to 1941, but the modern day match-ups started in 1989.  In this series, the team most thought would win, has often not won.  For example: 2012 Raceland beat Pikeville by 40 points in the regular season, to turn around and fall to them in the playoffs by 6.  In 2013, Raceland beat Pikeville, who had one loss to Belfry all season, to win the first Regional Championship in Raceland history.  Does all that have a bearing on this year, probably not, but this is "Prognostication", so one must prognosticate.  

This season, everyone, including myself, have said this championship was Pikeville's to lose.  But, I'm swaying from the common belief.  I think Raceland shocks Class 1A and beats favorite Pikeville for Raceland's first every State Championship.  And, that's not all heart talking, I have some science to back it up.  

Pikeville has a potent, but less used, passing game.  Raceland has 21 interceptions on the season.  The secondary has proven they are a force to be reckoned with if you are going to throw the ball.  Pikeville has a phenomenal running back in Birchfield, but I think Pikeville will go where ever Birchfield takes them.  The next leading rusher has less than 400 yards.   Raceland's DC is Coach Lewis.  Lewis coached at Ironton, Ohio and won multiple state championships there and Ironton was known for their defense.  He is a great DC.  Coach Lewis retired from Ohio and came to work in Kentucky, at Raceland, to earn a second retirement.  This is his last season, he will be retiring.  He is very proficient at preparing for a great running back and has shut down many over his years at Raceland, many times holding them to their season low rushing.  Dominic Hayden at LCA was held to 23 yards with Coach Lewis'scheme, he was averaging something like 200 a game.  So, it's not thinking with my heart here.  

What do you think?  To much going out on a limb?  Do you think the Pikeville will be the Rams?  Tell me why you think so. 

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4 hours ago, Ram said:

State Championship Game

Raceland vs. Pikeville 

RPI Rankings

1. Pikeville

2. Raceland

BluegrassPreps Rankings

1. Pikeville

2. Raceland 

Prognostication 

These two teams have a pretty long history, dating back to 1941, but the modern day match-ups started in 1989.  In this series, the team most thought would win, has often not won.  For example: 2012 Raceland beat Pikeville by 40 points in the regular season, to turn around and fall to them in the playoffs by 6.  In 2013, Raceland beat Pikeville, who had one loss to Belfry all season, to win the first Regional Championship in Raceland history.  Does all that have a bearing on this year, probably not, but this is "Prognostication", so one must prognosticate.  

This season, everyone, including myself, have said this championship was Pikeville's to lose.  But, I'm swaying from the common belief.  I think Raceland shocks Class 1A and beats favorite Pikeville for Raceland's first every State Championship.  And, that's not all heart talking, I have some science to back it up.  

Pikeville has a potent, but less used, passing game.  Raceland has 21 interceptions on the season.  The secondary has proven they are a force to be reckoned with if you are going to throw the ball.  Pikeville has a phenomenal running back in Birchfield, but I think Pikeville will go where ever Birchfield takes them.  The next leading rusher has less than 400 yards.   Raceland's DC is Coach Lewis.  Lewis coached at Ironton, Ohio and won multiple state championships there and Ironton was known for their defense.  He is a great DC.  Coach Lewis retired from Ohio and came to work in Kentucky, at Raceland, to earn a second retirement.  This is his last season, he will be retiring.  He is very proficient at preparing for a great running back and has shut down many over his years at Raceland, many times holding them to their season low rushing.  Dominic Hayden at LCA was held to 23 yards with Coach Lewis'scheme, he was averaging something like 200 a game.  So, it's not thinking with my heart here.  

What do you think?  To much going out on a limb?  Do you think the Pikeville will be the Rams?  Tell me why you think so. 

Pikeville 

 

Raceland
 

 

 

NCC

 

the rest have no shot.

If NCC has to go to Pikeville, Pikeville will run the ball at will on them.

Pikeville is the clear favorite, Raceland is the only team with a shot at beating them, IMO.

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5 minutes ago, gbballfan21 said:

Pikeville 

 

Raceland
 

 

 

NCC

 

the rest have no shot.

If NCC has to go to Pikeville, Pikeville will run the ball at will on them.

Pikeville is the clear favorite, Raceland is the only team with a shot at beating them, IMO.

I'll take your word on NCC, I was hoping they would match up well with Pikeville and have a shot. 

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38 minutes ago, Ram said:

I'll take your word on NCC, I was hoping they would match up well with Pikeville and have a shot. 

I just don’t see it. The only TD they scored on Beechwood was a kickoff return. NCC has a few dudes, and the QB has a big arm, but a little inconsistent. Beechwood sophomore RB ran for over 150 yards on NCC, and Birchfield behind that big line will be tough to stop. Anything can happen I guess, but that long trip against that Pikeville team, will be too much to overcome, IMO.

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8 hours ago, gbballfan21 said:

I just don’t see it. The only TD they scored on Beechwood was a kickoff return. NCC has a few dudes, and the QB has a big arm, but a little inconsistent. Beechwood sophomore RB ran for over 150 yards on NCC, and Birchfield behind that big line will be tough to stop. Anything can happen I guess, but that long trip against that Pikeville team, will be too much to overcome, IMO.

I agree, that trip can be a factor, that is probably a six hour trip by bus (without actually mapping it).  That can be tough on a team.  I don't know about NCC's travel habits, but that may be a "leave the day before trip", or extremely early and make a few stops.  

Now, that I think about it, If I was the NCC coaching staff, I think I would contact Raceland, that's almost exactly the half-way point, and stop and do a walk-through practice at Raceland; let the players stretch their legs, get some last minute reminders and break the trip up.  Yep, that is what I would do. 

Birchfield is the key component.  But, he's also the key to stoping Pikeville. Hopefully NCC can devise a plan that make it a game.  

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15 hours ago, gbballfan21 said:

Pikeville 

 

Raceland
 

 

 

NCC

 

the rest have no shot.

If NCC has to go to Pikeville, Pikeville will run the ball at will on them.

Pikeville is the clear favorite, Raceland is the only team with a shot at beating them, IMO.

Pikeville will run the ball at will against any Class A team.

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23 minutes ago, 9068 said:

Pikeville will run the ball at will against any Class A team.

I can respect that.  And, you may be correct. 

But, do you know of a team that has stopped a comparable running back?

Did you see Dominic Hayden play in high school? 

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3 hours ago, Ram said:

I can respect that.  And, you may be correct. 

But, do you know of a team that has stopped a comparable running back?

Did you see Dominic Hayden play in high school? 

No. But I saw Shawn Alexander, Jon and Mike Sutkamp, Eric Shelton, Michael Bush, etc.

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25 minutes ago, 9068 said:

No. But I saw Shawn Alexander, Jon and Mike Sutkamp, Eric Shelton, Michael Bush, etc.

I do remember seeing the Sutkamps and Bush.  

I'm not questioning your football knowledge.  Just saying that a team has a better chance of stopping one great back and making a team beat them with the other players, then they do stoping a team that has multiple weapons that can be interchanged with one another.  

You may be right, Pikeville may roll all the way to the State Championship.  But, I prefer to think that a few teams can challenge them and make things interesting.  We will know the truth soon enough. 

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17 hours ago, Ram said:

I do remember seeing the Sutkamps and Bush.  

I'm not questioning your football knowledge.  Just saying that a team has a better chance of stopping one great back and making a team beat them with the other players, then they do stoping a team that has multiple weapons that can be interchanged with one another.  

You may be right, Pikeville may roll all the way to the State Championship.  But, I prefer to think that a few teams can challenge them and make things interesting.  We will know the truth soon enough. 

I agree on multiple weapons.......but Phillip Haywood at Belfry was really successful being about as one dimensional as possible lol. Always think back to my 25 years as an official, radio, observer for officials association and KHSAA, and work for recruiting service early on this time of the year. I was so blessed to see so many GREAT HS players. One thing I know....to win in December you have to run it in November. Had the opportunity to officiate two games Eric Shelton played in in 4A playoffs for Bryan Station. 350 yards plus both nights against good teams....St X was the second. He played at Florida State for Coach Bowden. Enjoy week three....I always felt it was the best week of playoffs.

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On 11/13/2022 at 3:47 PM, Breds82 said:

If NewCath should play Pikeville maybe they’ll conger up some of the magic from 2000 when the under dog Breds went to Pikeville and won with the QBs older brother as the starter. Go Breds.

That Pikeville team wasn’t as good as this Pikeville team is. 

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