March 19, 20224 yr First, let me reassure everyone that this is not for those of us in Kentucky. We will feel something from this system that will affect central/east Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. but no severe weather. Mainly just some heavy rain because we'll be on the northern edge of the system. This could become a significant outbreak of severe weather along the Gulf Coast. It will start Monday and last through Wednesday of next week. I think the severe modes will be significant hail, damaging winds, and some strong long-track tornadoes. I started watching this a couple of days ago because the Storm Prediction Center was showing an enhanced level possibility of severe weather for the Gulf Region a couple of days ago. That is very unusual that far in advance. Ok, let's look at what I've been seeing. A low-pressure system will be positioned over the panhandle of Texas on Monday Then move into Oklahoma. It will move at a slow pace because a ridge of high pressure will be blocking it. It will also pull up some Gulf moisture towards Kentucky and give chances of 2+ inches of rain starting Tuesday. The next two maps will show this. Now let's concentrate on the Gulf Coast States. When you look at the following maps you will see why I think this will be a significant severe weather outbreak. Here's the EHI from the GFS. It is showing some red and yellow colors. When you see that the atmosphere will be very unstable and add the other conditions be primed for a severe weather outbreak. This map shows where supercell thunderstorms could from. Look how at the end of the run how everything seems to explode in Mississippi. The last couple of maps will show the showers/thunderstorm's positions through the period. This one is from the Euro show lighting strikes every 6 hours. It gives us a good look at the positions of the stronger storms. I'm doing this so if any members have any family or acquaintances living or visiting those Gulf Coast states during this time can inform them. I also foresee some flight delays that will affect travel in the U.S.
March 20, 20224 yr Author This multi-day event is getting worst with Tuesday being the worst day. Here are the maps for Monday mainly Texas and Tuesday may be the absolute worst for portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. Monday for eastern sections of Texas and west Louisiana. A fairly substantial severe weather event remains evident from roughly central Texas eastward. Large hail is expected with the initial dryline storms, along with the potential for locally damaging winds. Tornado potential is forecast to increase into the evening and overnight, as storms move eastward across Texas. A few strong tornadoes will be possible through the evening and into the overnight hours. This is the forecast sounding for a section of eastern/southeastern Texas. Concentrate on the two sections on the bottom right-hand corner of the chart. SARS-Sounding Analogs show the possible supercell storm and significant hail. This section of Texas could see some significant supercells along with hail as large as 2" in diameter. The next box to look at is the Effective Layer STP (with CIN). In short, this shows the possible strength of the tornadoes. The red line shows between 5 and 6. This means that tornadoes EF-4 or higher can be expected. Now, this doesn't mean that a tornado will form but that the conditions are favorable for tornadoes of the strength mentioned could be expected. The possible hazard type box just above the EL STP box shows just what type of hazard could be expected. It will show none, marginal severe, severe, tornado or PDS tornado I use this chart when I do my severe weather forecasts for Kentucky also. Now let's look on Tuesday. A substantial severe weather event including the potential for significant tornadoes remains evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for the potential for strong tornadoes will exist with the evolving supercell storms ahead of the front. Additionally, tornadoes (along with damaging winds and hail) will be likely with storms shifting eastward in tandem with the cold front. Here's the forecast sounding the section under the Category Moderate Risk Area. It too shows the possibility of EF-4+ tornadoes. Also significant supercells and hail possibly 2.75 inches in diameter. Look at the Psbl Haz Type box. It shows PDS TOR. That means Particularly Dangerous Tornadoes. They could see some EF-5 tornadoes. Here are some charts to show what could happen in the next couple of days from Texas to Mississippi.
March 21, 20224 yr Author This situation is growing worse. The Storm Prediction Center now has a Category 4 Moderate Risk Area for sections of east Texas. We could see multiple days of significant tornadoes. The SARS is showing conditions will be favorable for multiple EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes today into tonight and again on Tuesday for portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The chance for isolated strong to severe storms has risen some for portions of Kentucky on Wednesday. I will post an update later this evening.
March 21, 20224 yr Author A Tornado Watch has just been issued for eastern Texas. This two day event will have a serious affect on life and property. * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including the potential for a few strong tornadoes, along with very large hail and damaging winds are expected this afternoon through tonight, especially across parts of central/east Texas into western Louisiana.
March 21, 20224 yr Author Here is just one of several tornado warnings in Texas. It is in the area where the SARS was forecasting a Particularly Dangerous Tornado. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 646 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 TXC021-287-491-220000- /O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220322T0000Z/ Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX- 646 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES... At 646 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Elgin, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Elgin, Coupland, Knobb Springs, Blue, McDade, Butler and Cedar Hills. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.
March 22, 20224 yr Author Picture of a monster wedge tornado near Taylor Texas from Twitter. It is located northeast of Austin Texas.
March 22, 20224 yr Author CENTRAL TEXAS (KXAN) — A damaging tornado outbreak and severe storms moved through the Central Texas area Monday afternoon and evening. Crews from the National Weather Service will be out Tuesday to survery the damage and make determinations on how many tornadoes actually touched down and their intensity https://www.kxan.com/news/local/live-blog-severe-storms-expected-to-move-through-central-texas/
March 22, 20224 yr Chevy may have a new advertisement for its Silverado. Truck is rolled by tornado. Drives away.
March 22, 20224 yr 7 minutes ago, Bluegrasscard said: Chevy may have a new advertisement for its Silverado. Truck is rolled by tornado. Drives away. Wow
March 22, 20224 yr From a weather geek standpoint, the most interesting part of that truck video for me is that was a relatively small tornado. Really helps illustrate the destructive power of a tornado, especially the higher end ones.
March 22, 20224 yr Author The level 4 Moderate Risk Area has been expanded to include central/southern Mississippi, central/eastern Louisiana and a small section of west Alabama. This is the SARS for around 2 pm EDT. In the upper left hand corner you can see what is called the Skewed T Chart. This shows what is going on in the upper atmosphere. Where the green and red line intersect is called a Cap. This prevents storms from growing but the cap is shallow and will break. This is denoted by a space between the red and green lines. Once the cap breaks the storm clouds can grow and be coming stronger. This is showing the cloud tops could reach 15 km up into the atmosphere or roughly 49,000 ft. The different color lines denote differing winds speeds with height. The wind barbs show there will be winds coming from different directions. This causes a twisting motion in the atmosphere which causes rotation in the storm clouds when the rotation gets compact enough it could cause a tornado. Lastly the STP is showing strong PDS tornadoes will be possible EF-3-EF-5. I think there will be more numerous stronger tornadoes today than yesterday.
March 23, 20224 yr 1 hour ago, Bluegrasscard said: Sounds like New Orleans may have taken hit from tornado. They did. From the footage I've seen... it ain't good.
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