First chance for wintry precipitation to end November

[nWo]

It appears that we could have our first chance at some possible snow to start December. Two of the mid range models are showing accumulating snow for the beginning of next week but they differ on where and how much. Please note that we are too far in  advance to make a definite forecast. This is just a snapshot in time and things will more than likely change.

The GFS

shows the system that could bring the wintry precipitation will start of as rain then change over to snow. To system looks to pass through Kentucky loop around then come through again. Will this happen? only time will tell

 

Here is what the GFS is showing for possible snow accumulations. I would really be surprised if these totals are true. As we get closer I'll be able to fine tune my forecast.

 

The Canadian is not as bullish on snow accumulations. It also is showing some big snow accumulations but the heaviest totals will be east of Kentucky.

 

 

The European model is showing light snow accumulations for Kentucky with the heaviest accumulations north of Kentucky. Also it is coming in a little warmer with possible freezing rain/sleet.

 

 

 

We are about a week out so don't take this totals to heart. I will be doing another update tomorrow.

[nWo]

Thursday morning update:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I pray all are well and will be safe this holiday.

We have the makings of a major winter storm at the beginning of next week. The models are starting to come into as good agreement as they can so far. We are 5 days away from this possible event so things can and probably will change between today and next week.

 

First for the timing of the system. Rain will move in early Monday morning and turn over to snow later in the day. The snow is forecast to continue until late on Tuesday. The three mid-range models show this.  

 

The GFS

 

The Euro

 

The Canadian

 

The models are showing some difference in the possible snow accumulations. Now let me say that these are not official yet. They will change between now and when the event starts.  One reason there is some difference is the Canadian and Euro use the 10:1 ratio and the GFS I'm using the Kuchera snow accumulation forecast which I have found to be more accurate.

 

The GFS

 

The Euro

 

The Canadian

 

Once again these totals are not official yet. I just posting them to let people know what we may be facing. Everyone can prepare as they see fit.

[PP1]

@nWo Stupid question but does the 10.1 over Cincinnati on the GFS and the 7.1 over Cincy on the Euro mean a projection of 10.1 inches or 7.1 inches of snow? 

[theguru]

Thanks @nWo even though I hate to hear it.

[nWo]

3 hours ago, PP1 said:

@nWo Stupid question but does the 10.1 over Cincinnati on the GFS and the 7.1 over Cincy on the Euro mean a projection of 10.1 inches or 7.1 inches of snow? 

Yes may be 7-10 inches but we are a little too far from the event to make a definite call.

[sportsfan41]

Is ground temperature going to play a part nWo?  Or does it freeze over quickly and not matter as much?

[nWo]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan41 said:

Is ground temperature going to play a part nWo?  Or does it freeze over quickly and not matter as much?

Ground temperature will play a big part. The ground temps around northern Kentucky are around the low 50s right now. That would cut down on the snow accumulations if they stay that high by Monday.

[nWo]

This will be a quick update. We are still a couple of days away so we should start getting some pretty good data tomorrow. I just wanted to touch base with everyone what I've been seeing.

The GFS has come way down on possible snow accumulations,

 

We are getting into range now for NAM model. These totals are at the very end of the NAM but it's totals are higher than the GFS.

 

 

The following is a brand new model released today. It is called the NWS Blend of Models. It combines the data from all NWS and non-NWS models into one at the time of the latest release. It is updated every hour up to 36 hours into the future. After that, the increase between data points goes to 6 hours. So what I have studied so far accuracy should be pretty good up to 36 hours into the future. As we go along I'm expecting them to release more model data categories.

The BOM as I will call It shows 1-3 inches mainly east of I-65. Being new I don't have much experience with it so we'll see how accurate it is in the future

 

I plan a more detailed up Saturday.

[theguru]

Just now, nWo said:

This will be a quick update. We are still a couple of days away so we should start getting some pretty good data tomorrow. I just wanted to touch base with everyone what I've been seeing.

The GFS has come way down on possible snow accumulations,

 

We are getting into range now for NAM model. These totals are at the very end of the NAM but it's totals are higher than the GFS.

 

 

The following is a brand new model released today. It is called the NWS Blend of Models. It combines the data from all NWS and non-NWS models into one at the time of the latest release. It is updated every hour up to 36 hours into the future. After that, the increase between data points goes to 6 hours. So what I have studied so far accuracy should be pretty good up to 36 hours into the future. As we go along I'm expecting them to release more model data categories.

The BOM as I will call It shows 1-3 inches mainly east of I-65. Being new I don't have much experience with it so we'll see how accurate it is in the future

 

I plan a more detailed up Saturday.

Thanks for staying on this nWo, my weather app is calling for little to nothing in NKY. 

[nWo]

1 minute ago, theguru said:

Thanks for staying on this nWo, my weather app is calling for little to nothing in NKY. 

I expect that to start changing tomorrow sometime.

[theguru]

Just now, nWo said:

I expect that to start changing tomorrow sometime.

I waiting to see what you forecast. 

[PP1]

I want snow.

[nWo]

Saturday evening update for expected wintry precipitation to start the work week.

All signs are pointing to most of Kentucky receiving some accumulating snows starting Monday afternoon into Tuesday. First I would like to show what the models are showing now as for timing for the rain changing over to snow.

 

The NAM is showing the rain changing over to snow earlier than the GFS on Monday. It is showing the change over by midmorning to all snow then continuing till the snow moves out of northern and northeastern portions of Kentucky by Tuesday evening. If this is what happens then snow accumulations will be a little higher for snow especially in the aforementioned areas. 

 

The GFS has the change over later in the afternoon. It also has the system moving out of the area by early afternoon on Tuesday. Of course this would lead to lesser amounts. I thing the GFS is not really getting a good read on this system. It has had some wild swings in snow accumulation totals. Maybe as we get to Sunday it will start getting it's act together.

 

Now for what the models are showing for accumulation totals.

The NAM

 

The GFS

 

I thought I would also bring in the new Blend of Models and what it is showing.

Temps will fall during the day on Sunday into the mid to upper 20s. They should be in the mid 20s but rise into the low 30s as some warm are tries to move in to behind this system on Tuesday.

So here is my first call for snow.

2-4" north of I-64 and east of I-75. 

East of I-65 and south of I-64 1-3"

West of I-65 dusting to 1"

 

I will give my second call tomorrow probably about this time

[sportsfan41]

I'm looking forward to something out of this.  Only slightly nervous that it's still 2020.

[nWo]

This will quick. I pretty much going to stay with my first call. I'm not seeing anything in the latest data to change it. I will post a more detailed update in the morning..