December 8, 20196 yr This upcoming Tuesday some could be the first significant winter event of this winter. Accumulating snows of several inches will be possible. It now appears that the snow will start earlier in the day on Tuesday late morning or early afternoon. The snow accumulations look to start in the southcentral portions of Kentucky then progress northeastward. A cold front that will usher in the cold weather looks to past through Kentucky from the northeast some time Monday evening or night. This will allow the cold air to move in faster than previous modeling data has shown. This will give some a good shot of several inches of snow. The NAM and GFS are in agreement about several inches falling on Kentucky. The GFS is coming in with a little wider snowfield as it has the snow starting earlier than the NAM. It includes portions of western Kentucky getting in on the snow. Also, everyone should note that there will be a very short cut off to the snow accumulations north and east of the snow track. The GFS is coming in with lessor amounts but still, if it is right it will cause problems for most of Kentucky. a general 2-4" with some pockets upwards toward 5-7" Especially in southcentral and portions of eastern Kentucky. The NAM has the snow further east than the GFS with the accumulating snows south and east of a line from Bowling Green northeastward to Portsmouth, Oh. Starting time according to this model is late morning on Tuesday. It is also showing 2-4" of snow with a band of snow, shown by the pink, of 6-8" of accumulations. So my first call is a general 2-4" over most of the portions of Kentucky that will receive accumulating snows. There appear to be pockets of 5-7" possible. I fully expect at the very least a Winter Weather Advisory to be issued by tomorrow. I will update again in the morning.
December 9, 20196 yr Author This will be very quick as I'm running late this morning. I'm still staying with 2-4" as a general call for snow. Timing will be everything with this system. The cold air from the northeast and the moisture moving in from the southwest when they meet will be everything. I'll post a more detailed update later today.
December 9, 20196 yr Author It looks like the Northern Kentucky is on the bench for this one. Thoughts? Yes, It looks like Northern Kentucky will be sitting this one out.
December 9, 20196 yr Author I'm going to stay with my original general 2-4 inches for now. Those on the northern fringes of the snow track could see from a dusting at the northernmost edge to 2 inches. The further south and east you go the possible snow accumulation go up. Accumulations of 3-5 inches will be possible in the higher elevations. The latest model comparisons show there is still a little uncertainty about the width of the snowfield. The Canadian and GFS models are in close agreement on the accumulation amounts and the width of the snow. So that is why I'm staying with my first snow accumulation totals. Also, the GFS is including more of Western Kentucky. The NAM is coming in with light accumulations of 1-2 inches. Also for the first time, the models are starting to show some possible freezing rain accumulations. Mainly a little west of I-65 and around the Bowling Green area. The freezing rain may bring the snow accumulation totals down some. We'll just have to wait and see if it continues and increases in scope. If this trend continues I may go into a Winter Weather Threat Mode in the morning. I will update everyone then.
December 10, 20196 yr Author There really will be no changes to my previous forecast. The only questions left to be answered are the width of the snowfield and how quickly the cold air moves in. This will be the determining factor in how much snow accumulates. The models are different in these things. So I will try to update around midmorning. Edited December 10, 20196 yr by nWo
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