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More Snow on the way 1/23/19


nWo
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Looks more snow is on the way for parts of Kentucky Wednesday later afternoon into early Thursday morning. Temps will range from the low to mid-40s in the western part of the state to the mid to upper 50s in the east. Rain and showers will occur ahead of a front that will pass through late Wednesday. Temps will drop after the front passes changing the rain from freezing rain into snow. Temps will range in the low to mid-20s Thursday morning for lows.

 

The NAM

 

prcipnam.gif

 

 

tempnam (1).gif

 

 

The GFS.

 

gfs prcip.gif

 

 

gfs temp.gif

 

I will post an outlook at possible snow accumulations in the morning.

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First, let's look at the type of precipitation radars from the NAM, GFS and the new GFS-FV3 model.

 

The NAM is showing most of the snow being confined east of I-65. Starting around 7 pm EST and progressing eastward. All of the following start at the same time.

 

nam p.gif

 

 

The GFS is showing the snow starting west of I-65 but not as heavy as the NAM model.

 

gfs p.gif

 

The new GFS-FV3 closely mirrors what the NAM is showing.

 

gfsp-fv3.gif

 

Before I give my first call I want to show everyone what I mean by a model trend. A trend is what a model is showing over a certain time period. So the first one is the NAM snow accumulation map. Everyone can see how the NAM wasn't showing much snow at last night's 7 pm EST run.

 

nam snow.gif

 

The GFS has been kind of consistent on what it has been showing. It differs from the NAM and GFS-FV3 by showing a dusting of snow west of I-65.

 

gfs snow.gif

 

The new GFS-FV3 was very bullish on snow accumulations but has come back down close to the NAM. The only difference is where the heaviest snow may fall. The GFS-FV3 has it further to the southeast than the NAM.

 

gfs-fv3.gif

 

So here is my first call for snow. Anywhere east of I-65 look for a possible 1-3". There may be some accumulations around 4-5" under the heavier snow squalls. Where exactly the heavier snow possibilities will set up is uncertain at this time. One thing of note. Temps could reach from the high 40s to low to mid-50s Wednesday afternoon before the cold air mass moves in to turn the rain into freezing rain then snow. I will update early in the morning.

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I gotta be in Richmond tomorrow until about 8pm. How bad is my road getting back to Bardstown gonna be?

 

When you make that trip, do you take the Parkway to Lexington and down I-75 or do you come across 150 to Danville then Lancaster then Richmond? If the latter, that road has some tricky spots if the weather is bad, and it might help dictate your decision.

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When you make that trip, do you take the Parkway to Lexington and down I-75 or do you come across 150 to Danville then Lancaster then Richmond? If the latter, that road has some tricky spots if the weather is bad, and it might help dictate your decision.

 

I prefer not to take the expressways. So yeah, the Danville route is my choice. That doesn't mean I'll take that way home.

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I gotta be in Richmond tomorrow until about 8pm. How bad is my road getting back to Bardstown gonna be?

 

You should be ok. I don't think any wintry precipitation will be in the Richmond area until around 10 pm.

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I'm going to stay with 1-3" for snow by the time it ends Thursday morning. This will be mainly from around the I-75 corridor eastward. The larger accumulations look to be in higher elevations of eastern Kentucky. I will update later if anything changes. We have another slight chance at some snow this weekend but for now doesn't look like it will be much.

 

The next best chance for snow accumulations looks to be next week. We could see a major arctic blast of cold weather by the middle of next week. Temps look to be in low teens if not a little lower. We could also see sub-zero windchills. With a system poised to pass through Kentucky at about the same time, we could close out January with accumulating snow.

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