October 24, 20187 yr Author I initially chuckled at the thought that UK winning out would almost guarantee a playoff spot, until I realized that this would mean beating Georgia at home, Tennessee on the road, Alabama in the SEC championship. That will do it for them. For the record it only gives UK a 2% chance of winning out.
October 24, 20187 yr I’m guessing they would be placing a ton of credit on the win against Michigan. The strength of record and strength of schedules stats would favor Ohio State so I’m guessing those have pretty high coefficients in the equation. I honestly thought you would be more upset about the fact that if both Ohio State and Notre Dame win out that they have the same chance of making the playoff at 94% according to 538. I’m not saying the predictor is accurate. But it’s only missed on one team in the 3 years I’ve found. I'm still not sold on ND winning out. But I will say if the Irish do win out, they have to be ahead of any 1 loss team left IMO.
October 24, 20187 yr Percent Chance Of Every Undefeated or 1 loss FBS Team to make playoff if they win out: 1. Alabama 100% 2. Clemson 100% 3. LSU 100% 4. Georgia 99% 5. Texas 98% 6. UK 97% 7(tie). Notre Dame 94% 7(tie). Ohio State 94% 8. Oklahoma 92% 9. Michigan 87% 10. West Virginia 85% 11. Florida 80% 12. Washington State 76% 13. Iowa 71% 14. UCF 15% 15. USF 10% 16. NC State 7% 17(tie). App State 17(tie). Fresno State A fun game to play here for every team ranked 4-9 is to imagine the complete insanity that would have to take hold to imagine some of those teams winning out and not making it in those small 1% to 10% windows. That’s not even what those numbers mean. Still, Stats are funny things sometimes.
October 24, 20187 yr I’m curious about their numbers too. Especially with the Big XII having that title game this year. For OU to win out, they’ll have avenged their only loss. It makes me wonder if the numbers account for conference rankings (however perceived) and puts a hypothetical one loss Big Ten champ in over a one loss Big XII champ, all other things being equal. That Purdue loss and the way they lost looms large in my mind. That's why I can't see them being ahead of Oklahoma or Texas if either win out. OSU winning out isn't enough in the set up scenario for me.
October 24, 20187 yr Author Ranked on chance to win out: Clemson 50% Alabama 40% Notre Dame 39% UCF 28% Oklahoma 24% Michigan 22% Ohio State 20% Georgia 15% LSU 9% Florida 7% Texas 7% Iowa 7% Wash St 7% West Virginia 4%
October 24, 20187 yr Author A fun game to play here for every team ranked 4-9 is to imagine the complete insanity that would have to take hold to imagine some of those teams winning out and not making it in those small 1% to 10% windows. That’s not even what those numbers mean. Still, Stats are funny things sometimes. Stats are simply that, stats. Sometimes they mean nothing, sometimes they mean everything. But you usually don’t figure out how much they meant until after the fact.
October 24, 20187 yr Author That Purdue loss and the way they lost looms large in my mind. That's why I can't see them being ahead of Oklahoma or Texas if either win out. OSU winning out isn't enough in the set up scenario for me. A lot of that equation is built on the percent chance that chaos is going to happen. That’s why Ohio State chance is so high still at 94% if they win out. It’s taking into account the possibility of Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, etc. losing another game. It’s basically saying that if Ohio State wins out there is also a strong possibility that there is going to be a place in the playoff for them by default due to other chaos.
October 24, 20187 yr A lot of that equation is built on the percent chance that chaos is going to happen. That’s why Ohio State chance is so high still at 94% if they win out. It’s taking into account the possibility of Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, etc. losing another game. It’s basically saying that if Ohio State wins out there is also a strong possibility that there is going to be a place in the playoff for them by default due to other chaos. Exactly. You can't read much into it with the conference season only being halfway complete.
October 24, 20187 yr A lot of that equation is built on the percent chance that chaos is going to happen. That’s why Ohio State chance is so high still at 94% if they win out. It’s taking into account the possibility of Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, etc. losing another game. It’s basically saying that if Ohio State wins out there is also a strong possibility that there is going to be a place in the playoff for them by default due to other chaos. I understand that. However, and I would think you'd agree, if the Irish win out they get in over OSU. Same with Texas or Oklahoma. With that said, still a lot of football left.
October 24, 20187 yr Author I understand that. However, and I would think you'd agree, if the Irish win out they get in over OSU. Same with Texas or Oklahoma. With that said, still a lot of football left. Oh I agree 100%. I honestly think the committee would put Oklahoma in over OSU and if I’m being honest with myself and was on the committee I would put Oklahoma in over OSU. I just don’t think they put Texas in over OSU. The odds of Bama, Clemson, ND, Oklahoma, and Ohio State winning out are very, very low. If you look at the math 538 is using, it’s a ~1.9% chance that ND, OU, and OSU all win out.
October 24, 20187 yr Oh I agree 100%. I honestly think the committee would put Oklahoma in over OSU and if I’m being honest with myself and was on the committee I would put Oklahoma in over OSU. I just don’t think they put Texas in over OSU. The odds of Bama, Clemson, ND, Oklahoma, and Ohio State winning out are very, very low. If you look at the math 538 is using, it’s a ~1.9% chance that ND, OU, and OSU all win out. I agree, it's very unlikely they all win out.
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