October 23, 20187 yr Every year 538 has their playoff predictor which is basically a what if tool that you can put in multiple scenarios and it will tell you who they believe will make the playoffs based off their algorithm. In the grand scheme the committee doesn’t use this but the committee has all of the data 538 uses in their formula at their disposal. I’ve found their sports predictions to be far more accurate than their political predictions. Percent Chance to Make Playoff As Of 10/23/2018 Clemson 78% Alabama 69% Notre Dame 54% Oklahoma 30% Michigan 25% Ohio State 23% Georgia 21% LSU 17% Texas 14% Florida 10% 2
October 23, 20187 yr Author Percent Chance Of Every Undefeated or 1 loss FBS Team to make playoff if they win out: 1. Alabama 100% 2. Clemson 100% 3. LSU 100% 4. Georgia 99% 5. Texas 98% 6. UK 97% 7(tie). Notre Dame 94% 7(tie). Ohio State 94% 8. Oklahoma 92% 9. Michigan 87% 10. West Virginia 85% 11. Florida 80% 12. Washington State 76% 13. Iowa 71% 14. UCF 15% 15. USF 10% 16. NC State 7% 17(tie). App State 17(tie). Fresno State
October 23, 20187 yr Author Another interesting stat I found. Everyone’s favorite talking point right now, is if Clemson, Alabama, Texas, and Michigan/ Ohio State win out, who’s in? 538 won’t even allow us to see the data on this because it happens in less than .25% of their scenarios. If it’s Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Michigan: Alabama 100% Clemson 100% Notre Dame 74% Oklahoma 74% Michigan 45% If it’s Ohio State instead of Michigan: Alabama 100% Clemson 100% Notre Dame 71% Ohio State 69% Oklahoma 55%
October 23, 20187 yr Author Also the scenario of LSU beating Alabama and both finishing with 1 loss, Clemson winning out, Notre Dame winning out, Texas/ Oklahoma winning out, and Ohio State/ Michigan winning out happens in less than .25% of their scenarios.
October 24, 20187 yr Another interesting stat I found. Everyone’s favorite talking point right now, is if Clemson, Alabama, Texas, and Michigan/ Ohio State win out, who’s in? 538 won’t even allow us to see the data on this because it happens in less than .25% of their scenarios. If it’s Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Michigan: Alabama 100% Clemson 100% Notre Dame 74% Oklahoma 74% Michigan 45% If it’s Ohio State instead of Michigan: Alabama 100% Clemson 100% Notre Dame 71% Ohio State 69% Oklahoma 55% Why would OSU be in over Oklahoma? Makes zero sense, unless it's what I said in another thread. Oklahoma would have better quality wins and not near as bad a loss. Texas should also be ahead of them if they win out. Again, unless....
October 24, 20187 yr Author Why would OSU be in over Oklahoma? Makes zero sense, unless it's what I said in another thread. Oklahoma would have better quality wins and not near as bad a loss. Texas should also be ahead of them if they win out. Again, unless.... Dude don’t shoot the messenger. This isn’t a group of people saying it, 538 uses a formula to determine their predictions. This is what the math says, not the people.
October 24, 20187 yr Dude don’t shoot the messenger. This isn’t a group of people saying it, 538 uses a formula to determine their predictions. This is what the math says, not the people. I wasn't taking a shot at you, I was simply asking why. It makes zero sense to me. It should to anyone. Their math doesn't seem to add up, that's nothing against OSU or their fans. It just wouldn't be right IMO.
October 24, 20187 yr Author I wasn't taking a shot at you, I was simply asking why. It makes zero sense to me. It should to anyone. Their math doesn't seem to add up, that's nothing against OSU or their fans. It just wouldn't be right IMO. I’m guessing they would be placing a ton of credit on the win against Michigan. The strength of record and strength of schedules stats would favor Ohio State so I’m guessing those have pretty high coefficients in the equation. I honestly thought you would be more upset about the fact that if both Ohio State and Notre Dame win out that they have the same chance of making the playoff at 94% according to 538. I’m not saying the predictor is accurate. But it’s only missed on one team in the 3 years I’ve found.
October 24, 20187 yr Why would OSU be in over Oklahoma? Makes zero sense, unless it's what I said in another thread. Oklahoma would have better quality wins and not near as bad a loss. Texas should also be ahead of them if they win out. Again, unless.... I’m curious about their numbers too. Especially with the Big XII having that title game this year. For OU to win out, they’ll have avenged their only loss. It makes me wonder if the numbers account for conference rankings (however perceived) and puts a hypothetical one loss Big Ten champ in over a one loss Big XII champ, all other things being equal.
October 24, 20187 yr Notre Dame may lose again so it may not matter. But I don't care what any predictor says, 0% chance an undefeated Notre Dame is left out for a 1 loss team.
October 24, 20187 yr I still check into 538 every now and then for kicks, but they lost pretty much all credibility a couple years ago.
October 24, 20187 yr Notre Dame may lose again so it may not matter. But I don't care what any predictor says, 0% chance an undefeated Notre Dame is left out for a 1 loss team. ZERO Chance.
October 24, 20187 yr I initially chuckled at the thought that UK winning out would almost guarantee a playoff spot, until I realized that this would mean beating Georgia at home, Tennessee on the road, Alabama in the SEC championship. That will do it for them.
October 24, 20187 yr Author I still check into 538 every now and then for kicks, but they lost pretty much all credibility a couple years ago. I do think it’s interesting to follow. They are definitely more accurate with sports than with other areas.
October 24, 20187 yr Author Notre Dame may lose again so it may not matter. But I don't care what any predictor says, 0% chance an undefeated Notre Dame is left out for a 1 loss team. That’s not really what it was saying though. If you think about it most of these teams play each other. Alabama would eliminate LSU, Georgia/ Kentucky. Then it would be Notre Dame tied for 3rd with Ohio State or slightly ahead of Michigan. I am curious as to what happens in the 6% of the time they don’t put ND in if they win out, but I would imagine it would have something to do with LSU beating Alabama and Oklahoma destroying Texas in the Big 12 champ game.
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