Invest 99L UPGRADED

[nWo]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Fiona, located several hundred miles north-northeast of

the Leeward Islands, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Gaston,

located about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

 

1. A tropical wave located about 400 miles east-southeast of the

Leeward Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and

thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally conducive for gradual

development while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to

westward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to

become more conducive for a tropical depression to form by late this

week when the system is forecast to move near Hispaniola and Puerto

Rico, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. An Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system

later this morning. Interests in the central and northern Lesser

Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the

progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

 

 

[nWo]

Those in Florida should pay attention to the information from Invest 99L especially next week. This tropical wave, if it becomes a hurricane, could end Florida's streak of no hurricanes hitting Florida in the past 11 years.

[TheDeuce]

Those in Florida should pay attention to the information from Invest 99L especially next week. This tropical wave, if it becomes a hurricane, could end Florida's streak of no hurricanes hitting Florida in the past 11 years.

 

Is this direct landfall (eye), or not at all?

[nWo]

Is this direct landfall (eye), or not at all?

Way too early to tell but if it develops into a hurricane and follows the cone I posted earlier it will be a direct hit on Florida.

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update.

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Gaston, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde

Islands.

 

1. Satellite images, surface observations, and radar from the Lesser

Antilles indicate that a broad area of low pressure associated

with a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser

Antilles has become a little better defined. Although environmental

conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this

system could become a tropical depression during the next day

or two while it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph near the

Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Conditions could become

more conducive later this week while the system moves near the

southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this

disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests from the islands of

the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the Bahamas should continue to

monitor the progress of this system. Gusty winds, heavy rains, and

possible flash floods and mud slides could occur over portions of

these areas regardless of tropical cyclone formation.

Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices

for further details.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

Chances have increased that Invest 99L will become a tropical depression in the next day or two. Also the cone track seems to have been moved a little more southerly than this morning. This will fluctuate since we are about a week away from this maybe hitting Florida.

 

[nWo]

Wednesday morning update.

 

[nWo]

...Gale Warning for Southwest Atlantic...

A Gale warning has been issued for the area northeast of a broad

area of low pressure analyzed as a 1008 mb low north of

Hispaniola near 21N68.5W. These winds are expected to continue

for the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong

convection is from 17N-21N between 66W-69W including portions of

Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage, and from 17N to over

Hispaniola between 69W-73W. Environmental conditions have the

potential to become more conducive for tropical development over

the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern

Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains,

and possible flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over

portions of Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola, and

the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of

days. There is a medium chance of tropical development in the

next 48 hours.

 

[nWo]

This is the NAM at the very end of its run. Showing the possible position of Invest 99-L Sunday afternoon. This will probably change as we get closer and the models get a better handle on the storm.

 

[swamprat]

Thanks, nWo.

 

As I said in another thread, these are the types of storms I worry about and have been tracking this one for the last few days. I do notice that it is moving awfully slow. It's also showing the same potential for development, now, as it did day before last.

 

Where the low pressure is now, is in the area where Katrina was born.

[nWo]

You're welcome. There is some concern about this developing into a hurricane because of the warm ocean waters. Most if not all temps are in the 90s.

[nWo]

Invest 99L is located in the center of this clip.

 

[nWo]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

 

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the

Leeward Islands.

 

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is

located between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast

of Cuba. The low is producing disorganized showers and

thunderstorms mainly to its south and east, and upper-level winds

are not expected to be particularly conducive for development during

the next day or so while this system moves more slowly toward the

west-northwest at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions

could become a little more conducive for development over the

weekend or early next week while the system moves through the

Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

 

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause

flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern

and central Cuba during the next couple of days. Gusty winds and

locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the

Bahamas during the next few days. Interests in South Florida and

the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of this

disturbance since some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds,

could begin over weekend and continue through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[nWo]

1. A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the

Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms

mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are

not conducive for significant development during the next day or so

while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of

Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a

little more conducive for some development when the system moves

across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains are likely

to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty

winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the

Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the

Florida Keys later this weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and

the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress

of this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

 

[swamprat]

Noticed it was just south of the Keys, this morning. However, I can't see the path projections you can, nWo. Chances for formation had increased. Saturday may be a wet opening for college football, here. :depressed:

[TAC]

Where did the name Invest 99L come from?