Tensions between China, its neighbors, and the US over who controls the coveted shipping route through the South China Sea have been simmering for a while.

 

China has even gone so far as to build fake islands in the middle of the sea to claim the waters as its territory under the UNLOS treaty. US Navy vessels have routinely passed through the area as an assertion of right and Chinese ships have played cat and mouse games with them (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/world/asia/south-china-sea-us-navy.html).

 

An international tribunal requested by the Philippines over China's claims just released their findings and rebuked all of China's arguments.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/asia/south-china-sea-hague-ruling-philippines.html?ref=world&_r=0

 

China claims the ruling is "null and void" and has no plans to adhere to it. I imagine they might put some more muscle behind their claims.

 

So, what's going to happen?

This is going to be an interesting situation to follow. China is taking minor steps into a larger geopolitical role and this is in their own backyard so they figure they have home court advantage.

I don't think anything is going to happen. The only country that could use force to enforce the ruling is the US and we aren't going to go toe to toe with the Chinese in their own backyard.

 

I could see the US or other countries paying China off, to relinquish their claim. I don't think that would work today but if the Chinese economy falters they may be more open to some sort of a deal in the future.

Here is some more fodder for the discussion:

 

Destined for War: Can China and the United States Escape Thucydides’s Trap? - The Atlantic

I don't think anything is going to happen. The only country that could use force to enforce the ruling is the US and we aren't going to go toe to toe with the Chinese in their own backyard.

 

I could see the US or other countries paying China off, to relinquish their claim. I don't think that would work today but if the Chinese economy falters they may be more open to some sort of a deal in the future.

 

So, if it came to it, do you think the US would back down to China in the Pacific? The Chinese ultimately want to remove the US from their sphere of influence, and this is the first stage of doing so. We have numerous military bases and installments in that area, along with protected trade routes in the area, and is pretty significant to the US. I struggle with the idea of the US willingly reducing their presence in the region, but I also struggle with the idea of seeing us being able to do much about it.

 

This tension has been building for several years, and it is definitely something to keep an eye on, especially with Russia beginning to use bolder tactics.

So, if it came to it, do you think the US would back down to China in the Pacific? The Chinese ultimately want to remove the US from their sphere of influence, and this is the first stage of doing so. We have numerous military bases and installments in that area, along with protected trade routes in the area, and is pretty significant to the US. I struggle with the idea of the US willingly reducing their presence in the region, but I also struggle with the idea of seeing us being able to do much about it.

 

This tension has been building for several years, and it is definitely something to keep an eye on, especially with Russia beginning to use bolder tactics.

 

I don't see the US closing bases or backing down per se, I just don't think they will push forward against China either. China will continue to do what they do and the US will do the best they can to stay out of the way.

 

What can the US do, send a Carrier Task Force to sail through international waters? China has an arsenal of Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles developed with a US Carrier Task Force in mind...they aren't going to sweat what amounts to a Navy Drive By.

I don't see the US closing bases or backing down per se, I just don't think they will push forward against China either. China will continue to do what they do and the US will do the best they can to stay out of the way.

 

What can the US do, send a Carrier Task Force to sail through international waters? China has an arsenal of Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles developed with a US Carrier Task Force in mind...they aren't going to sweat what amounts to a Navy Drive By.

 

 

If I remember correctly from my time studying East Asian Politics, the picture above shows the first island chain and the second island chain. The US has hard military bases located along the First Island Chain ( Okinawa and throughout the Philippines) We have soft military bases (Carriers on patrol) throughout the second island chain. So the US would not have to send a carrier task force over there, we already have active bases in the relatively immediate area.

 

China has previously stated that they would like to remove or reduce the amount of influence that the US has in the region (ie: push back US military bases to at least the second island chain). I think China taking over the South China Sea is just a stepping stone for them to be in a better position to achieve this.

Did they put nukes in that man made island?

Did they put nukes in that man made island?

 

If they did, we wouldn't know about it.

Its china's island, and there's no one going to push them off.

 

To think the US in its current state would seriously challenge China is silly.

 

We want no part of the jv team, what makes anyone think we would want any part of China? China and the rest of the world clearly know that.

Its china's island, and there's no one going to push them off.

 

To think the US in its current state would seriously challenge China is silly.

 

We want no part of the jv team, what makes anyone think we would want any part of China? China and the rest of the world clearly know that.

 

The thing is though, is that we are already there. I understand, and agree, that the US isn't going to go sending a bunch of people over there. But we have bases already in the area. So if China wants to push us out of the region, do you think we withdraw from our military bases and let them have total control in the region?

The thing is though, is that we are already there. I understand, and agree, that the US isn't going to go sending a bunch of people over there. But we have bases already in the area. So if China wants to push us out of the region, do you think we withdraw from our military bases and let them have total control in the region?

 

Not next week, but over time I can see incidents thar causes us to retreat. We will trade some other area with China to save face.

 

America just don't have the stomach for this kind of aggression.

 

Off topic, but I'm leaning towards the ding Dong in North Korea firing away at the south since we installed the THAD system. I really think the moron will go thru with it this time. And China won't mind one bit.

Not next week, but over time I can see incidents thar causes us to retreat. We will trade some other area with China to save face.

 

America just don't have the stomach for this kind of aggression.

 

Off topic, but I'm leaning towards the ding Dong in North Korea firing away at the south since we installed the THAD system. I really think the moron will go thru with it this time. And China won't mind one bit.

 

Keep in mind, that if the US does retreat or reduce its influence, that would likely end or severely damage current relations we have in the region with the ASEAN members.

 

Its a sticky situation. On one hand, i agree with you. The US currently does not have the stomach or will to go toe to toe with China, which is troubling. On the other hand, reducing our influence in the region not only reduces our first flight of defense in the area not only for us but for other nations in the area which we have pledged to protect, but also jeopardizes trade routes and trade agreements we have in the region.

Agreed

Vote down the TPP, draw back from Asia economically, and we'll find out just how much China will have to care when they're at the head of the table of an Asian economic union.