We are watching the Reds follow the blow it up, start over model that many think small markets must follow to ever have a chance at playoff success. Is this what we have to look forward to in baseball in a small market city? Here are some questions I would like to discuss:

 

1. How many years of 90 loss seasons will you trade for 90 win seasons? Is it a 1 to 1 ratio? For example, will you accept three 90 loss seasons if you know the next 3 seasons will be 90 win seasons?

 

2. Do you believe a small market team has to blow it up and rebuild to get to the 90 win season/playoff contender level? Is there another way to build a playoff contender?

 

Let's start there.

It's hard for me to say they're in the "dump" phase with some of their contracts.

It's hard for me to say they're in the "dump" phase with some of their contracts.

 

Let's not focus on the Reds. Other teams have done this recently - Kansas City, Houston, perhaps even Arizona falls into the dump/rebuild program. The Marlins have done a dump/rebuild a couple times. Let's talk about the idea that you have to purge a roster in order to build a contender. Is that what has to be done in MLB if you are in a small market?

Let's not focus on the Reds. Other teams have done this recently - Kansas City, Houston, perhaps even Arizona falls into the dump/rebuild program. The Marlins have done a dump/rebuild a couple times. Let's talk about the idea that you have to purge a roster in order to build a contender. Is that what has to be done in MLB if you are in a small market?

 

Arizona? You're kidding right?

Arizona? You're kidding right?

 

Ok. If I am wrong about Arizona, so be it. I don't really care. You are right on that one and I am wrong. Winner.

 

What are your thoughts about the dump/rebuild model?

Edited April 30, 201610 yr by Voice of Reason

Atlanta is better example.

Ok. If I am wrong about Arizona, so be it. I don't really care. You are right on that one and I am wrong. Winner.

 

What are your thoughts about the dump/rebuild model?

 

 

Well they just signed Grienke to a $320 million contract so I wouldn't call that rebuilding. :lol2:

 

 

As far as dump/rebuild if you have great scouting, and a great farm system you shouldn't have to do it IMO.

Your system (mlb - minors) should not be in a place that you have to dump and reload, it should always be loaded and ready to go, so that you can have the option to dump for better talent that your team needs.

 

Reds problem is they are trying to dump, but have no talent in the minors so dumping does them no good at this point.

Well they just signed Grienke to a $320 million contract so I wouldn't call that rebuilding. :lol2:

 

 

As far as dump/rebuild if you have great scouting, and a great farm system you shouldn't have to do it IMO.

 

I was talking about 3-4 years ago on the D'Backs when they got rid of Upton, Ian Kennedy, etc. and then won about 60 games.

 

I agree with you that a well run organization should not need to do a full dump.

Atlanta is better example.

 

I fear it is not going to work out for Atlanta in the least. And I doubt that the fanbase at-large - the majority of which are still spoiled by that 14 year run - thinks that this tradeoff is worth it. They're not just bad, they're unspeakably terrible. This may well be the worst team in franchise history. It is only worth it if they bring the thing they didn't get most of those years, a world series title (or two).

I think dump / rebuild is the most reliable method for "small market" teams. 1:1 ratio is the goal, but I'd target 1.5 bad for 1 good as more reasonable.

 

The WORST place to be in MLB is around .500. This won't get you in the playoffs in most years unless you happen to have a weak division. Even in that case, at .500 you're probably not a good enough team to win 3 series against better opponents.

 

In reality, if you are truly a small market team you are forced to turn over your talent when it gets arbitration eligible because you can't afford 1 or 2 players taking up a huge % of your overall salary. You just don't have enough $ to spread around to the other 23 spots to make them viable.

 

Let's look at the Cubs. If they were a small market club, they'd be looking at the next 2-3 yrs. as their "window to win." Bryant, Soler, Russell, Baez, Schwarber and even Arrieta as an ARB2 guy would be busting the bank of any small market club when they hit arbitration. Since they are all going to hit at roughly the same time, you dump them all together, load up the minor leagues and hope to contend in a year or 2 as the prospects you traded for come into their own (mostly in the minor leagues so you don't start their clocks and end up having to deal them before the rest of the team is good enough to help them).

Invest in scouting/draft, the international market and player development. You will rarely rebuild. You may have an off year or two, but never will have to clean house.

 

It doesn't take "baseball people" to figure out how to build an organization and have sustainable success. Heck, the 3 GM's I'd want running my team never played past high school. Theo, Mozeliak and Luhnow...