My sons football coach when he was in middle school probably punted 2 or 3 times in three years. Like someone said before, it had something to do with talent, but he once told me that the likelihood of getting a 1st down on 4th increases drastically the deeper in the hole you are. the potential for the other team capitalizing on you not getting it goes down the closer you are to your opponents end zone. He sent me a link to this article a few years ago.

 

4th Down Study - Advanced Football Analytics

 

From what I saw it that he was usually right when he did not punt.

Did anybody find it ironic that they don't go for two every time? Here they onside kick always and never punt, but just go for 1? Which, I don't get why more people don't go for two all the time......

 

I guess from a "style" perspective I can see the irony.

 

However, Kelley bases everything off of analytics. If his kicker is good 90% of the time on the XP then he's probably good with that.

 

Sidenote: This video didn't talk about it much but I had a thread on here last year about Kelley and how he has about 12 different onside kick plays.

I guess from a "style" perspective I can see the irony.

 

However, Kelley bases everything off of analytics. If his kicker is good 90% of the time on the XP then he's probably good with that.

 

Sidenote: This video didn't talk about it much but I had a thread on here last year about Kelley and how he has about 12 different onside kick plays.

 

Of course if you're good on 90% of your kicks, you only need to be 50% successful on two point conversions to statistically come out ahead. I have no clue what actual numbers are, but you are right..he's probably going to do whatever will produce the best net results.

I guess from a "style" perspective I can see the irony.

 

However, Kelley bases everything off of analytics. If his kicker is good 90% of the time on the XP then he's probably good with that.

 

Sidenote: This video didn't talk about it much but I had a thread on here last year about Kelley and how he has about 12 different onside kick plays.

 

The irony in the style perspective is what I was pointing towards.....do you still have/remember the link? Seems to be ringing a bell...I'd like to see that one, too.

Of course if you're good on 90% of your kicks, you only need to be 50% successful on two point conversions to statistically come out ahead. I have no clue what actual numbers are, but you are right..he's probably going to do whatever will produce the best net results.

I read something a few years ago that stated the vast majority of teams would be, at least, 54% successful when going for two instead of one. That tells me you will end up with more points most of the time.

 

One local coach always went for two and he was 68% successful in getting the two. That was his argument for not attempting XPs.

The irony in the style perspective is what I was pointing towards.....do you still have/remember the link? Seems to be ringing a bell...I'd like to see that one' date=' too.[/quote']

 

I found a link to the HBO report.

 

 

 

Kevin Kelley...the HS coach that ALWAYS onside kicks and NEVER punts on Vimeo