Ahh.

 

Either way, McCracken has been put out by NON-Big 3 schools. Until the Mustangs get over that hump, they're a non-factor.

 

And Scott County got put out by Meade last year and might not get past SK this year (and Scott has several key seniors this year). They might win some, but to say 10-12 out of 20 is a huge stretch.

 

Plus, I think we're giving Scott County too much credit (for ONE win over the Big 3) and not enough to Manual (who rarely gets put out by someone other than the Big 3). PRP (in its good years) could make a similar claim.

 

To make a 3-team 7-A or whatever would be crazy (if this is a hypothetical). I'm pretty sure there's a minimum for teams for a state championship and it's like 20 or so (field hockey barely meets the minimum). And yes, that applies to classes as well. So a super-16 class/division for football will NEVER happen (unless KHSAA changes the threshold minimum).

 

So if X, T and Male are gone ... Scott, Manual, McCracken, PLD, Central Hardin, Meade, etc., are gone too.

 

Maybe in the hypothetical, X and T are gone entirely (prep school like IMG or Oak Hill) and Male is closed for whatever reason (and all the kids who would have gone there go to KCAA/KCSAA schools or are home schooled).

 

Chuckle, whatever hypothetical we construct to explain it, the gist seems to be that the schools are gone and their kids are not available for other programs.

 

I do think Manual would be the strongest of the 'big five' I mentioned, but I doubt they'd become the new Trinity.

 

I believe you aren't giving enough credit to McCracken. Playing Manual to a 35-20 game in their second year of existence is no mean feat. They weren't as impressive in 2013 but they still played well against Central Hardin in the second round. I would also consider them almost a lock to win their region this year. I am confused by your mention of three teams 'putting them out' as they've only been in two years of playoffs.

 

Scott County has to be considered since they are only school outside of the big three to win in the past fifteen years. Plus, they gave a Trinity a surprising challenge in 2012 (although Trinity had several injuries/illnesses) and appeared in the finals during 2011 and 2004. However, I strongly agree that they wouldn't win 10-12 out of 20.

Y'all are making the same mistake I did at first. He isn't asking 'what if the past had been different', but 'what would the next twenty years look like if Male, St. X and Trinity were gone.' Essentially what if those three were moved to a hypothetical 7A since he isn't talking about the schools shutting down, but being removed from the equation altogether.

Ah, now we are supposed to read the WHOLE post...gotcha, thanks!

psychicscubadiver,

 

I said McCracken was put out by NON-Big 3 schools (i.e. Manual and Central Hardin are non-Big 3 schools since Manual and CH are NOT X or Male or T). It's NOT like McCracken is already elite and the ONLY reason it's not doing better is because of Male-X-T. McCracken needs to consistently beat other programs (CH, Manual, Paducah Tilghman) before being considered at the level of X-Male-T (or right behind X-T-Male in this case).

 

McCracken plays BG the final week of the regular season. We'll see how McCracken fares (since BG ran over CH). If BG runs over McCracken too, it's hard to say McCracken is the region favorite. If McCracken holds its own, then I'll put the bull's-eye for the region on McCracken.

 

CalPreps has McCracken ahead of CH, 34.8-29.5 (CalPreps also has Manual and PRP ranked ahead of McCracken, FWIW).

CJ Lit Ratings has McCracken ahead of CH, 109.9-107.3 (but also has Scott, SK, Bryan Station, Ryle, Cooper and Lafayette all ahead of McCracken or CH).

 

Not like McCracken has a giant lead on Central Hardin.

 

Either way, it's a TWO-team region. Shine is coming off Daviess' season. Meade is not the Meade from 13 or 14. North Hardin won't finish with a winning record. Ohio has lost 3-of-4, Muhlenberg has never been good in football and Henderson's defense is suspect (easy to look good against Muhlenberg and Ohio).

 

Whoever wins Region 1 (McCracken or CH) is liable to get running clocked in the state semis. Male-X-T will have tougher second and third round games than they will in the state semis. How much sense does that make?

 

Is McCracken a good program? Yes.

But why does it deserve more respect than Manual? Manual has been ranked ahead of McCracken all three years. And at least Manual's playoff losses are to M-T-X. McCracken lost to Central Hardin ... and wait for it ... yup, Manual.

 

I think Scott would have more titles in the hypothetical. But like you, to give the Cards more than half is laughable.

psychicscubadiver,

 

I said McCracken was put out by NON-Big 3 schools (i.e. Manual and Central Hardin are non-Big 3 schools since Manual and CH are NOT X or Male or T). It's NOT like McCracken is already elite and the ONLY reason it's not doing better is because of Male-X-T. McCracken needs to consistently beat other programs (CH, Manual, Paducah Tilghman) before being considered at the level of X-Male-T (or right behind X-T-Male in this case).

 

McCracken plays BG the final week of the regular season. We'll see how McCracken fares (since BG ran over CH). If BG runs over McCracken too, it's hard to say McCracken is the region favorite. If McCracken holds its own, then I'll put the bull's-eye for the region on McCracken.

 

CalPreps has McCracken ahead of CH, 34.8-29.5 (CalPreps also has Manual and PRP ranked ahead of McCracken, FWIW).

CJ Lit Ratings has McCracken ahead of CH, 109.9-107.3 (but also has Scott, SK, Bryan Station, Ryle, Cooper and Lafayette all ahead of McCracken or CH).

 

Not like McCracken has a giant lead on Central Hardin.

 

Either way, it's a TWO-team region. Shine is coming off Daviess' season. Meade is not the Meade from 13 or 14. North Hardin won't finish with a winning record. Ohio has lost 3-of-4, Muhlenberg has never been good in football and Henderson's defense is suspect (easy to look good against Muhlenberg and Ohio).

 

Whoever wins Region 1 (McCracken or CH) is liable to get running clocked in the state semis. Male-X-T will have tougher second and third round games than they will in the state semis. How much sense does that make?

 

Is McCracken a good program? Yes.

But why does it deserve more respect than Manual? Manual has been ranked ahead of McCracken all three years. And at least Manual's playoff losses are to M-T-X. McCracken lost to Central Hardin ... and wait for it ... yup, Manual.

 

I think Scott would have more titles in the hypothetical. But like you, to give the Cards more than half is laughable.

 

Ah, I misread your post. Somehow I thought you'd mentioned three teams not 'non-big three'. Anyway, I am giving Manual their due and would definitely place them above McCracken. I mentioned that Manual would be the forerunner of my hypothetical 'top five'.

 

I meant that McCracken would win their region in the 6A playoffs this year. I do think Manual and PRP are stronger (both are in my top five), but I see McCracken comfortably winning this year. The Louisville winner will blow them out of the water, but then this thread is about removing the big Louisville teams. Though, Manual would probably beat them even without the big three, I feel McCracken would make a good game of it.

 

My prediction that they would join the 'top five' is less based on past performance and more on how I think the program would change and grow in this hypothetical environment. Very few teams could play Manual that closely in only their second year of existence and they will at least make it to regionals this year if not the semifinals this year. I see the potential for growth in the west and removing the big three would only spur them to grow faster.

 

Chuckle, I feel that our overall positions on this hypothetical are not that different, even if we differ in some details. Out of curiosity what would your 'top five' look like?

I'm not sure who my top five would be, to be honest.

 

Surely someone else would emerge in Louisville (like Central and DeSales both have in the last 5-10 years) and like Fern Creek LOOKS like it could be (we'll see if the Tigers have staying power).

 

McCracken certainly has the facilities. And plenty of athletes (although hasn't swayed as many AWAY from Tilghman as you'd think).

 

Central Hardin has been on the uptick the past few seasons. Maybe the Bruins stay there.

 

Potentially South Warren? That school has been growing by leaps and bounds. It would NOT shock me to see it as a 6-A school within 20 years.

 

Simon Kenton has been on the cusp recently. Boone has shown it has the potential. Ryle's had some glory years.

 

Plus, Scott County (of course).

 

As you can tell, I have a hard time thinking of a top-five 6-A list for the next 20 years (without X-Male-T).

Interesting talk about McCracken, huge school with the best possible facilities, able to recruit from Tn. but WHAT IF there were no classes in football like other sports and McCracken would be in the same district as Mayfield (2a) and Tilghman (3a), they would not be even a shoo in to win their district on a regular basis. Talking about them being a state power in football to me is not realistic. Several Louisville schools on an annual basis would keep them from getting to the championship game from the West. Time will tell but I think McCracken will be an under performing school for it's size in most sports just like Henderson.

The title of this thread should be "Who Has the 4th Best Program in 6A over the Last 2 Decades?"

We're talkin future not past

So don't let the really good teams play because we can't beat them, and win a championship without really beating the best team. Got it. :lol2:

1) McCracken is in its third year. First year got put out by Central Hardin (at McCracken). Last year lost to Manual (at McCracken). Two home losses to NON-Big 3 schools does NOT give me hope to believe McCracken would be a power. Prior to McCracken, there was NO 6-A team from Paducah. So not sure how McCracken figures into this.

 

2) Scott County got put out by PLD in 98, didn't make playoffs in 99, was 5-6 in 2000 when it got put out by Trinity, got put out by Tates Creek in 01, got put out by PLD in 02, didn't make playoffs in 03, lost to X in 04 state final, got put out by PLD in 05, got out out by Henry Clay in 06, got put out by Shelby County in 07, lost to Male in 08 (but SK beat Male in next game), got put out by Trinity in 09 (would have been Scott-Greenwood final), got put out by Male in 10 (would have been Scott-Ryle final), lost to Trinity in 11 state final, lost to Trinity in 12 semis (would have been Scott-PRP final), 13 wouldn't have mattered (perfect season, won state), but 14 lost to Meade and jury is out in 15 (can Scott beat SK???).

 

So prior to 08, SC would realistically had ONE title from 98-07 (04). Maybe Scott would have won five straight (09-10-11-12-13). But 14 wouldn't have mattered and 15 we don't know yet.

 

Maybe Scott has 6 more titles at best (assuming it won EACH and EVERY finals appearance it could have had). But unless Scott was an absolute beast in the late 80s and early 90s, there is NO way Scott had 10-12 titles without the big 3 standing in its way. For a while, Scott couldn't get past PLD.

 

Of course, if Cooper hadn't split from Ryle, South Warren hadn't split from Greenwood, North Oldham hadn't split from Oldham, Collins hadn't split from Shelby and Thomas Nelson hadn't split from Nelson County, those five programs (Ryle, Greenwood, Oldham County, Shelby County, Nelson County) would have been stronger.

 

Plus, Central Hardin and North Hardin both lost kids to John Hardin in 2001. Maybe Central Hardin would have emerged as a power sooner or North Hardin would have gotten it together.

were talkin future. Not the past

It doesn't say. What if. The last 20 years. It said. What if they do this. What will happen ? Right? An if this happens. Scott co will dominate.