A couple of different comments on baseball stats were in the Reds thread today and I thought it might be interesting to have a thread that talks about stats and analytics. This has become a huge part of major league baseball. Teams are building rosters based on analytics. Defensive positioning is changing batter to batter based on it.

 

Here are a couple questions for starters:

 

When you put together your batting order, what stats are you using to set the batting order?

 

What stats are important when evaluating pitching?

A couple of different comments on baseball stats were in the Reds thread today and I thought it might be interesting to have a thread that talks about stats and analytics. This has become a huge part of major league baseball. Teams are building rosters based on analytics. Defensive positioning is changing batter to batter based on it.

 

Here are a couple questions for starters:

 

When you put together your batting order, what stats are you using to set the batting order?

 

What stats are important when evaluating pitching?

 

OBP would be my key in the 1-2 slots OPS key in the 3-6 spots. 7-9 would depend on if it was an NL or AL squad. My pitching staff would be set up on WHIP and I would never have a closer. I would have a pitcher that I used to get my big outs in the late innings. I love the way that the Rays are using Boxberger. He really helped them get 2 wins over the Red Sox the last 2 days. He'd be their closer but they used him yesterday to get them out of the 7th. They closed us out later with a lesser pitcher. But once he got them out of the jam they had 2 other guys that could pitch with the bases clean.

 

By the way. Couldn't the Reds still have Boxberger?

OBP would be my key in the 1-2 slots OPS key in the 3-6 spots. 7-9 would depend on if it was an NL or AL squad. My pitching staff would be set up on WHIP and I would never have a closer. I would have a pitcher that I used to get my big outs in the late innings. I love the way that the Rays are using Boxberger. He really helped them get 2 wins over the Red Sox the last 2 days. He'd be their closer but they used him yesterday to get them out of the 7th. They closed us out later with a lesser pitcher. But once he got them out of the jam they had 2 other guys that could pitch with the bases clean.

 

By the way. Couldn't the Reds still have Boxberger?

 

Boxberger was part of the Latos trade. Latos was just flipped for Desclafani and Wallach.

 

I guess the Reds could still have Boxberger but they would've never had Latos who helped get them to the playoffs a couple times.

 

Latos netted the Reds two great pieces in Deslafani and Wallach. I'll take those two over Boxberger. I'd love to have all three, maybe it's possible the Reds could've included someone else in the Latos trade but we'll never know I guess.

Boxberger was part of the Latos trade. Latos was just flipped for Desclafani and Wallach.

 

I guess the Reds could still have Boxberger but they would've never had Latos who helped get them to the playoffs a couple times.

 

Latos netted the Reds two great pieces in Deslafani and Wallach. I'll take those two over Boxberger. I'd love to have all three, maybe it's possible the Reds could've included someone else in the Latos trade but we'll never know I guess.

 

Didn't they also trade Volquez, Grandal and Alonso? What did they accomplish with Latos?

Didn't they also trade Volquez, Grandal and Alonso? What did they accomplish with Latos?

 

They traded all those guys and out of all of them Boxberger looks to be the best player right now. Alonso has started off nice this year, him and Grandal are still relatively young so they have that going for them.

 

Alonso didn't have a position (Blocked by Votto and the LF experiment was a disaster), Grandal was blocked by a better player in Mesoraco and Latos was an upgrade over Volquez at the time. Latos helped the Reds to two playoff appearances I believe, as a Reds fan that's an accomplishment to me.

 

The end result is Latos was swapped for Desclafani who I'm super excited to have and Wallach who is a nice catching prospect. Votto is ten times the player Alonso is, same can be said for Mesoraco over Grandal, Desclafani is an upgrade at this point over Latos and Volquez and Wallach well he pretty much cancels out losing Grandal in the original deal.

 

I certainly wish the Reds had Boxberger but they don't and they have pitchers just as capable as him in AAA the Reds are just to stubborn to bring them up.

Didn't they also trade Volquez, Grandal and Alonso? What did they accomplish with Latos?

 

Where did you plan to play Grandal and Alonso?

OBP would be my key in the 1-2 slots OPS key in the 3-6 spots. 7-9 would depend on if it was an NL or AL squad. My pitching staff would be set up on WHIP and I would never have a closer. I would have a pitcher that I used to get my big outs in the late innings. I love the way that the Rays are using Boxberger. He really helped them get 2 wins over the Red Sox the last 2 days. He'd be their closer but they used him yesterday to get them out of the 7th. They closed us out later with a lesser pitcher. But once he got them out of the jam they had 2 other guys that could pitch with the bases clean.

 

By the way. Couldn't the Reds still have Boxberger?

 

I agree with most of that. Another key stat for pitching is K/9. Power pitchers over control artists all day long. Obviously all stats need to be considered. If your power pitcher can't find the plate he is worthless but if I am building out my roster I am getting as many power pitchers as I can.

 

I disagree on your comments on no closer. There is a big mental side to baseball and you can't discount the ability to close a game. We all have seen many pitchers that had the stuff to close but never could stay as closer because they couldn't get the job done. Also, this is where you can't just get fixated on stats alone. There is a human side. I believe players want to know what their roles are. Over 162 games that becomes even more important to keep from burning out your pitchers. I am not opposed to using my closer in situations outside of 9th inning only but you better communicate well and give notice pre-game if there is a chance you may use your closer as early as the 7th inning. If you have the quality in your staff, having a closer and a setup man is huge in setting your whole staff so everyone knows what they are expected to do and when they can expect to pitch.

 

A stat I never see mentioned for hitters is batting eye. It is a great predictor of batting average and will tell you who your best hitters are.

If the Rays don't believe you need a closer then they are probably right. They are forward thinkers. They usually are ahead of everyone else except the A's and then those two teams get copied.

A couple of different comments on baseball stats were in the Reds thread today and I thought it might be interesting to have a thread that talks about stats and analytics. This has become a huge part of major league baseball. Teams are building rosters based on analytics. Defensive positioning is changing batter to batter based on it.

 

Here are a couple questions for starters:

 

When you put together your batting order, what stats are you using to set the batting order?

 

What stats are important when evaluating pitching?

 

As far as advanced stats for pitching, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is the way to go when evaluating pitchers. The stat basically accounts for all the things that they pitcher hisself can directly control such as strikeouts, home runs allowed. and walks. Basically stripping out the defense as a pitcher having bad luck with BABIP (batting average on balls in play) can really skew ERA. So BABIP is regressed to league average since as it has been shown over years that pitchers have very little control over that category. Let's take Stephen Strasburg for instance. This year so far, his ERA is 4.88. Normally if you see a 4.88 ERA, then you think the pitcher is performing terribly but get this his FIP is 2.83 suggesting that his true skill as a pitcher this year has been somewhere around there. FIP sees him that way because of Stephen's very high BABIP rate, which is .115 above league avergage and .100 points above his career average and will regress to the mean soon. Once that happens, if he holds his homerun, walks, and strikeout rates (the K's should rise) from today on, you should see a pitcher who approaches the 2.83 era that FIP projects.

 

Also another metric that isn't widely available, but should be here very soon is hard hit rate allowed by pitchers. Using Stras again as an example, his hard hit rate is 8.9% 9th best in baseball. But the batting average on balls in play against him is .403 leading to a .317 opponent batting average against! By looking at this FIP and hard hit rate, it is very easy to see how Stras has been a quite bit unlucky so far to start this young season. Let's look at the pitchers above and below him on the hard hit rate scale. His teammate, Max Scherzer is one spot below him, allowing a 9.3% hard hit rate. But his batting average against is more in line with a pitcher that is allowing such low levels of contact at .185. Gerrit Cole is above stras at 8.6% and his opponent batting average against is .204. Sorry i rambled, but hopefully this kind of answers you question somewhat