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Kenpom moves Virginia to #1


JDEaston
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I don't get why people care about this stuff right now.

 

None of these rankings mean anything. Everything will sort itself out in the next month or so when Kentucky goes to USC, Florida, and LSU and Virginia plays the likes of Duke, Louisville, UNC, etc.

 

 

We share the same line of thinking. I just figured I would share it, since some on here put a lot of weight on early season rankings. Just the other day I was debating with another member about the early season rankings being garbage. Once I saw the new kenpom rankings I thought it was a bit ironic.

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Due to Miami beating Duke, they made a substantial jump in the computer rankings. Which in turn gave Virginia's strength of schedule a bump, allowing them to jump Kentucky.

 

Agree or disagree?

 

It is two thousandths of a point, and, as you undoubtedly know, it is a straight mathematical formula. He isn't moving anyone anywhere...it is just data. Virginia has the 3rd most efficient offense and the 3rd most efficient defense...that really is nearly unbelievable. UK has the most efficient defense (no shock) and the 11th most efficient offense. Still really impressive.

 

Virginia has also played more efficient opponents, so it all makes sense.

 

That said, if they played tomorrow in Tacoma, WA, I'd expect UK to win.

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These rankings are done by following a formula aren't they? If so they simply reflect the results of that formula. I could care less who is ranked number one at any point in the season by any ranking system. The tournament is all that matters in the end.

 

 

Yes. It is a formula similar to what the BCS uses. It, along with other computer formulas tend to work their way out near the end of the regular season. In my opinion, the RPI tends to be the most accurate though.

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Agree or disagree?

 

Well Pomeroy's pythagorean win expectation is a rating system based on a mathematical formula, so I'm not sure what there is to disagree with apart from whether or not the formula is any good.

 

I think the answer to that question is "Yes", it's been a pretty darn good formula the last few years, given its limitations.

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I enjoy formulas like these. Too often we really don't have a sound basis for how strong a team or its schedule is. This gives us some data to help form a better opinion.

 

I don't think KP says he would use this as a basis for predicting a head-to-head winner. I think it just helps give objective data to a subjective debate.

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Yes. It is a formula similar to what the BCS uses. It, along with other computer formulas tend to work their way out near the end of the regular season. In my opinion, the RPI tends to be the most accurate though.

 

The RPI measures who the better team is, KenPom measures who is more efficient per possession offensively and defensively. I can promise you that every coach in the country looks at KenPom data daily and NEVER looks at the RPI. They are very, very different.

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I enjoy formulas like these. Too often we really don't have a sound basis for how strong a team or its schedule is. This gives us some data to help form a better opinion.

 

I don't think KP says he would use this as a basis for predicting a head-to-head winner. I think it just helps give objective data to a subjective debate.

 

He does what good statisticians do: tell you the formula is interesting but it can't do everything. He certainly explicitly says on his website that it's not a tool for which team is good or has had a good season. It's a win expectation calculator based on a terribly small amount of data.

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The RPI measures who the better team is, KenPom measures who is more efficient per possession offensively and defensively. I can promise you that every coach in the country looks at KenPom data daily and NEVER looks at the RPI. They are very, very different.

 

I understand. However the RPI is usually pretty acurate near the end of the season. If I remember correctly both are nearly identical by that time of the year, as far as the team rankings go.

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