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Fiscal Cliff: Short-term vs Long-term

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The dominant talk from here to the end of the year is going to be "fiscal cliff."

 

If an agreement is not reached taxes go up on all, defense cuts take place, unemployment benefits stop.

 

I heard a report today that said IF we go off of the cliff that the first year will be rough but the 2nd year will see UE drop to about 5% and the job market take off.

 

 

So can we handle one tough year?

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The dominant talk from here to the end of the year is going to be "fiscal cliff."

 

If an agreement is not reached taxes go up on all, defense cuts take place, unemployment benefits stop.

 

I heard a report today that said IF we go off of the cliff that the first year will be rough but the 2nd year will see UE drop to about 5% and the job market take off.

 

 

So can we handle one tough year?

 

So they're saying if we don't reach an agreement, 2013 will be a horrible year, but 2014 will be a huge rebound?

The dominant talk from here to the end of the year is going to be "fiscal cliff."

 

If an agreement is not reached taxes go up on all, defense cuts take place, unemployment benefits stop.

 

I heard a report today that said IF we go off of the cliff that the first year will be rough but the 2nd year will see UE drop to about 5% and the job market take off.

 

So can we handle one tough year?

That is fantasyland. Small business, the engine that drives a free market economy, has been struggling for 4 years, and I do not see anything positive on the horizon. The so-called experts, including our President, have been telling us for 4 years that things will improve, then act surprised when things do not improve. The so-called improvement in the EU recently is but a small blip on the radar screen. At this point, we are exactly where I said we would be when he was elected 4 years ago. And I hope I am wrong about the next 4 years, but as a small business owner/operator, I see NOTHING positive approaching, other than the spin that the current administration and apologists will spew.

Interesting. I understand the tax side of this, but what are the spending cuts that are going to take place? That's the part where I'm skeptical.

That is fantasyland. Small business, the engine that drives a free market economy, has been struggling for 4 years, and I do not see anything positive on the horizon. The so-called experts, including our President, have been telling us for 4 years that things will improve, then act surprised when things do not improve. The so-called improvement in the EU recently is but a small blip on the radar screen. At this point, we are exactly where I said we would be when he was elected 4 years ago. And I hope I am wrong about the next 4 years, but as a small business owner/operator, I see NOTHING positive approaching, other than the spin that the current administration and apologists will spew.

 

Ignoring 31 straight months of job creation means you have zero credibility. Things have improved.

The fiscal cliff effects a lot more things that conservatives hold dear than democrats. Obama is going to get his increased revenue and decrease defense spending one way or the other but I suspect an agreement will be reached before the end of the year. If not the revenue increases and defense cuts allows the budget to be realligned and sure up social security and medicare which I think is only a positive thing.

Interesting. I understand the tax side of this, but what are the spending cuts that are going to take place? That's the part where I'm skeptical.

 

Certain things included:

 

- No 2013 increase in the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate

- Expiration of certain federal unemployment benefits

- Automatic cuts in mandatory and discretionary spending

 

Most of the cuts don't come from a slash in absolute spending, but a reduction or even flattening of the year-to-year increases that would otherwise have taken effect to offset inflation/cost of living increases and things of that nature. So rather than an absolute reduction of spending, it's across-the-board cuts to the otherwise normal increases of federal budgets.

^ Thanks.

 

I'm in favor of tax increases so long as they are joined by spending cuts.

^ Thanks.

 

I'm in favor of tax increases so long as they are joined by spending cuts.

 

I'm not wild about the timing. I'd like to see another year go by before something like this went into effect. Taking money out of people's pockets in troubled times usually serves to make those times worse. Based on what I've read and the anecdotal evidence from a few people I know in business seems to suggest that this year is at least somewhat better than last year, even if we still can't call this year "good." Slashing spending and taking money out of people's pockets could send us right back into the slump.

 

As usual, we do these things during times of trouble and not during times of plenty, which is usually when we need to address them. But everyone's too busy getting fat at the big trough during boom years to want to do any actual work with the underlying fiscal issues.

 

Personally, I'd like to see both the tax increases and spending cuts be MUCH smaller this year with increases to come, spelled out over a long-term plan to give some stability. Any bets on whether a nice, stable plan for sustained growth and a move toward fiscal responsibility gets worked out by Congress?

 

Yeah, nothing to do with Baby Boomers hitting retirement age 3 or 4 years ago and retiring. Like I said if you don't want to acknowledge job improvements, improved housing market, auto sales, etc., it's fine with me. You will just have zero credibility and reside in rightwingmakebelieveland.

Yeah, nothing to do with Baby Boomers hitting retirement age 3 or 4 years ago and retiring. Like I said if you don't want to acknowledge job improvements, improved housing market, auto sales, etc., it's fine with me. You will just have zero credibility and reside in rightwingmakebelieveland.

 

Housing market is still in the crapper, and UE is still astronomically high. You want to act like everything's improving, be my guess. No one will take you seriously, but it's your right to be delusional and completely ill-informed. :D See how easy that is. :lol:

Housing market is still in the crapper, and UE is still astronomically high. You want to act like everything's improving, be my guess. No one will take you seriously, but it's your right to be delusional and completely ill-informed. :D See how easy that is. :lol:

 

Except for those inconvient numbers that show that while it isn't great it's a lot better than it was. That is a fact and to deny it brings one credibility into question. It's not easy unless one has no crediibility to speak of and will just ignore facts. Your choice.

Yeah, nothing to do with Baby Boomers hitting retirement age 3 or 4 years ago and retiring. Like I said if you don't want to acknowledge job improvements, improved housing market, auto sales, etc., it's fine with me. You will just have zero credibility and reside in rightwingmakebelieveland.
PICKET: Companies plan massive layoffs as Obamacare becomes reality - Washington Times

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