Beechwood/ncc game is a rivalry game, so it doesnt matter who had the better team on paper, you look to much into stats. Going by your head to head games theory, Lca only beat Fairview by 2 tds, while that next week Beechwood beat them by 42 points. So according to your math Beechwood should have beat Lca by atleast 4 tds. (And obviously that didnt happen)
This game is about matchups, i think Ncc matches up with Lca and this one will be close.