A regional severe weather outbreak is possible for later today.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KENTUCKY.

Parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys are likely to experience a widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and into tonight. This will feature powerful supercells linked to wind damage, tornadoes, and large hail. A long-track, high-end tornado is conceivable, and several powerful tornadoes are predicted. A bowing line section with the potential for tornadoes and destructive winds—some perhaps exceeding 75 mph—is predicted to form from the evening into the night.

Today, a mid-level trough with a negative tilt will pass through the mid-Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest. Ahead of the front, a highly moist air mass will continue to exist, spreading eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Surface dewpoints will be in the high 60s and lower 70s F throughout this air airmass. By afternoon, much of the moist sector will experience moderate to severe instability due to warming surface temperatures. The late afternoon and early evening will see a significant increase in storm coverage.

By the afternoon, a pristine air airmass should be in place. According to model predictions, MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg as it moves eastward from areas of the Ozarks into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Tornadoes and supercells are likely to develop in this atmosphere. A high-end long-track tornado could evolve from far southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and southern Indiana, then southward into western Kentucky and far northern Tennessee. A number of powerful tornadoes seem likely.

The damp sector is predicted to have significant storm coverage in the late afternoon. From the mid-Mississippi Valley, a number of supercell clusters will migrate eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Additionally, supercells will be able to generate destructive wind gusts. As some of the convective clusters gradually change into more linear formations in the early evening, the risk of wind damage is predicted to grow. Along the leading edge of these faster-moving bowing line portions, winds may reach speeds of over 75 mph. It is anticipated that several bow echoes will emerge during the evening, causing wide swaths of wind damage. A wide range of areas, including portions of the mid-Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, as well as the central Appalachian Mountains, are susceptible to wind damage.
 

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

As I expected yesterday, the level 4 moderate risk area has been expanded eastward to around the I-75 corridor. The rest of Kentucky is under a level 3 enhanced risk area. I will be updating throughout the day as new information comes in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Morning update from NWS-Louisville:

Wave #1: Storms this morning could produce large hail

Wave #2: (Stronger) Lines of severe storms are expected to develop over southeast Missouri this afternoon, moving across Kentucky/Indiana through the late afternoon and evening

 Severe threats: damaging winds (possibly hurricane force), large/very large hail, tornadoes (potentially strong tornadoes), torrential rainfall
 

Sun staring to come back out here in Richmond. Not a good sign. 

Tornado on the ground in St. Louis.

That second wave is already producing tornados. 

14 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Tornado on the ground in St. Louis.

That second wave is already producing tornados. 

Do you know what part of St. Louis?

I found out where. Clayton, Mo., is where my aunt and great grandfather used to live. 

First tornado warnings in Kentucky are up, near Paducah. Tornado confirmed.

 

WPSD in Paducah, live stream:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1Ds4DxFwS3/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Golf ball to BASEBALL size hail on that storm.

13 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

First tornado warnings in Kentucky are up, near Paducah. Tornado confirmed.

Tornado Warning
ILC003-127-153-KYC007-039-083-145-MOC133-162215-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0121.250516T2127Z-250516T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
427 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Pulaski County in southern Illinois...
  Southeastern Massac County in southern Illinois...
  Southeastern Alexander County in southern Illinois...
  Northern Carlisle County in western Kentucky...
  Ballard County in western Kentucky...
  McCracken County in western Kentucky...
  Northwestern Graves County in western Kentucky...
  Northeastern Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 427 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cairo, moving
  east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and hail up to three inches in diameter.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
  Cairo, Wickliffe, Mounds, and Mound City around 430 PM CDT.
  La Center and Barlow around 435 PM CDT.
  Lovelaceville around 445 PM CDT.
  West Paducah and Barkley Regional Airport around 450 PM CDT.
  Paducah and Lone Oak around 455 PM CDT.
  Brookport around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Kevil,
Blandville, and Lowes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and 12.
 Interstate 24 in Illinois between Mile Markers 36 and 38.
 Interstate 57 in Illinois between Mile Markers 1 and 7.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.
 

 

The extension for the tornado watch has just been issued. 

Bowling Green you need to be on your toes over the next 30-45 minutes. Nasty storm moving in from the west.