Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are all possible late Sunday.

Timing Sunday, 7 pm EDT-8 am EDT

Any one location will see severe conditions for up to 2 hours. Be weather-aware and ready to act. Have multiple ways to receive warnings!

Confidence is high that a line of storms moving west to east will bring all severe weather hazards, including:

Damaging Winds

Large Hail

Tornadoes

 

Saturday morning update:

As a cold front crosses western Illinois/Missouri during the day, daytime heating will support destabilization, yielding scattered thunderstorm development as the main/initial short-wave trough crosses this region. Large hail and damaging winds will become increasingly likely as the storms organize, and a few tornadoes will also be possible. This convection may evolve into one or more bands of organized storms with embedded rotation, with risk for more widespread strong/damaging gusts, in addition to embedded tornadoes, as the convection shifts across Indiana/southern Lower Michigan and eventually western Ohio and Kentucky through the evening and into the overnight hours.

As for the timing, this morning it appears that from 5 pm EDT to around 7 am EDT, significant storms will be possible. These storms can produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Confidence is high on the severe storm development. 

The tornado outlook map shows a 10% possibility of an EF-2 or greater tornado developing in the yellow hatching area. Given that just 1% of severe thunderstorms result in tornadoes, there is a good possibility that a powerful tornado could form within 25 miles of any certain point inside the hatched area. 

I would not be shocked to see some of the enhanced risk areas elevated to a level 4 of moderate risk, particularly in the western Kentucky area, after looking at some of the modeling data this morning.

 

Here is the NAM 4km composite reflectivity map. It shows where strong to severe storms may develop. Exact location of these storms is unknown. Given the forecast environment, any individual cell could become a supercell storm and produce a tornado 

 

Thunderstorm development is likely to become widespread across the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys this afternoon into tonight. Initially, this activity will pose a risk for large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible before damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard this evening into tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

latest update:

A corridor of weak to moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of a cold front by early afternoon.

Current expectations are for an initially more discrete mode, with supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). A fairly quick transition (within a few hours of initiation) to a more linear/cluster mode is anticipated as the cold front surges eastward. Multiple swaths of numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely as one or more clusters move quickly east-northeastward over the Ohio Valley and southern Lower Michigan. Conditions will likely support a threat for tornadoes, both with initial supercells and any lines/clusters that eventually form. Given the strength of the low-level flow, some of the tornadoes could be strong, especially with sustained supercells in the lower OH Valley vicinity. The threat of damaging winds and tornadoes should continue this evening into the overnight hours.

 

 

 

Pretty sure we've had a tornado touchdown in southern Jefferson County along the Gene Snyder. 

Tornado warnings for area between Etown and Mount Washington. Radar indicated rotation.

Power outages in Jefferson County went from about 1300 ten minutes ago to 17,906 just now.

Pretty strong thunderstorm rolled through NKY where I am, in Crestview Hills.  Thankfully that was it.  High wind gusts, but nothing damaging.   Everyone out there stay safe.

 

 

 

A WDRB live cam just caught some debris flying though the air live on TV in Bardstown. Another possible tornado there. 

NWS has confirmed an EF-1 tornado in the Fairdale area of Louisville last night. Estimated winds around 90mph.