1) Bowling Green (20-4) - 1/30 69-57 W Ohio County, 2/2 84-63 W at #9 Greenwood    
Previous Rank: 1    
This Week: 2/6 at Owensboro, 2/9 vs. #2 Warren Central, 2/10 at Lyon County    
    
2) Warren Central (8-8) - 1/29 56-57 L at Christian County, 2/2 84-53 W #6 South Warren, 2/3 46-49 L Elizabethtown    
Previous Rank: 2    
This Week: 2/6 vs. Butler County, 2/9 at #1 Bowling Green, 2/10 at Paducah Tilghman    
    
3) Warren East (14-7) - 1/30 72-57 W at #16 Russellville, 2/2 77-54 W #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/3 67-70 L at Caverna    
Previous Rank: 4    
This Week: 2/6 at #15 Logan County    
    
4) Clinton County (15-9) - 1/30 75-63 W at #12 Monroe County, 2/1 73-63 W at #11 Glasgow, 2/3 93-84 W Hopkins County Central, 2/3 58-50 W Southwestern   Previous Rank: 5    
This Week: 2/8 at Somerset Christian    
    
5) Franklin-Simpson (12-8) - 1/29 65-56 W #13 Logan County, 1/30 64-72 L at Butler County, 2/2 68-55 W #16 Russellville    
Previous Rank: 8    
This Week: 2/6 vs. #7 Barren County, 2/9 at #15 Logan County, 2/10 at #9 Greenwood    
    
6) South Warren (9-9) - 1/30 62-50 W #13 Logan County, 2/2 53-84 L at #2 Warren Central    
Previous Rank: 6    
This Week: 2/6 at #16 Russellville, 2/9 vs. #9 Greenwood    
    
7) Barren County (14-7) - 1/30 57-54 2OT W #9 Greenwood, 2/3 68-88 L Butler County (at Owensboro Sports Center)    
Previous Rank: 7    
This Week: 2/5 at #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/6 at #5 Franklin-Simpson, 2/9 vs. #13 Monroe County, 2/10 at Adair County    
    
8. Russell County (10-10) - 1/30 78-79 L #14 Metcalfe County, 2/2 54-48 W #12 Monroe County    
Previous Rank: 3    
This Week: 2/6 vs. #10 Cumberland County, 2/9 at Caverna    
    
9) Greenwood (10-13) - 1/30 54-57 2OT L at #7 Barren County, 2/2 63-84 L #1 Bowling Green    
Previous Rank: 9    
This Week: 2/6 vs. Daviess County, 2/9 at #6 South Warren, 2/10 vs. #5 Franklin-Simpson    
    
10) Cumberland County (13-9) - 1/30 51-47 W at #17 Allen County-Scottsville, 2/2 80-57 W at #14 Metcalfe County, 2/3 66-52 W Jackson County (TN)    
Previous Rank: 10    
This Week: 2/6 at #8 Russell County, 2/8 vs. #13 Monroe County    
    
11) Glasgow (6-12) - 1/30 48-73 L at Caverna, 2/1 63-73 L #5 Clinton County    
Previous Rank: 11    
This Week: 2/6 at #13 Monroe County, 2/9 vs. #17 Allen County-Scottsville    
    
12) Metcalfe County (8-13) - 1/30 79-78 W at #3 Russell County, 2/2 57-80 L #10 Cumberland County, 2/3 47-62 L at Campbellsville    
Previous Rank: 14    
This Week: 2/6 vs. Edmonson County, 2/7 vs. Adair County, 2/9 at Somerset    
    
13) Monroe County (12-10) - 1/30 63-75 L #5 Clinton County, 2/2 48-54 L at #3 Russell County    
Previous Rank: 12    
This Week: 2/5 at Red Boiling Springs (TN), 2/6 vs. #11 Glasgow, 2/8 at #10 Cumberland County, 2/9 at #7 Barren County    
    
14) Todd County Central (9-12) - 1/30 53-56 L East Robertson (TN), 2/2 62-56 OT W #13 Logan County, 2/3 47-60 L McCracken County (at Graves County)    
Previous Rank: 15    
This Week: 2/9 at #16 Russellville, 2/10 vs. Crittenden County    
    
15) Logan County (11-11) - 1/29 56-65 L at #8 Franklin-Simpson, 1/30 50-62 L at #6 South Warren, 2/2 56-62 OT L at #15 Todd County Central, 2/3 60-51 OT W #17 Allen County-Scottsville    
Previous Rank: 13    
This Week: 2/6 vs. #3 Warren East, 2/9 vs. #5 Franklin-Simpson    
    
16) Russellville (3-20) - 1/30 57-72 L #4 Warren East, 2/2 55-68 L at #8 Franklin-Simpson    
Previous Rank: 16    
This Week: 2/6 vs. #6 South Warren, 2/9 vs. #14 Todd County Central    
    
17) Allen County-Scottsville (2-20) - 1/30 47-51 L #10 Cumberland County, 2/2 54-77 L at #4 Warren East, 2/3 51-60 OT L at #13 Logan County    
Previous Rank: 17    
This Week: 2/5 vs. #7 Barren County, 2/9 at #11 Glasgow    
    
18) Foundation Christian Academy (11-8) - 1/29 66-34 W at Metro Nashville (TN), 1/30 58-42 W Hendersonville Christian Academy (TN), 2/1 66-40 W Dayspring Academy (TN)    
Previous Rank: 18    
This Week: 2/6 at Heritage Christian, 2/8 at Currey Ingram Academy (TN), 2/10 at Christian Fellowship    

Notes

-Bowling Green continues to strengthen their stranglehold on the top spot.  They've now won 13 in a row, with their last loss coming in the King of the Bluegrass tournament in December.  This is their longest win streak since winning 15 in a row in the 2019/20 season.  They have a very strong chance to match that streak, as they start the week with a visit to Owensboro before hosting Warren Central in their final district game of the year.  Bowling Green has won 34 of their last 37 at home, and have lost only once to a region opponent at home since 2018.  Where the streak becomes imperiled most likely is on Saturday, when they visit Lyon County for a marquee matchup.  If the Purples can grab that win, they'll likely move into the top 5 of statewide rankings and will be favored not to lose again prior to the Sweet 16.  Bowling Green also clinched their 11th consecutive season with 20+ wins with their victory over Greenwood this past week. 

-Warren Central had an uneven week, one that continues to highlight what a difference Kade Unseld makes to their lineup.  Unsled sat out two of the three games, a 1 point loss to Christian County and 3 point loss to Elizabethtown.  Neither game was necessarily bad - though the loss to Christian County won't be one to write home about.  They sandwiched around a 31 point win over South Warren where the Dragons scored 32 in the third quarter alone.  Contrast that with an average of 51 points in the other two games.  On the year, Central is 6-2 in games Unseld has played, with the two losses coming to Lyon County and Bowling Green - two understandable losses.  They have averaged 73 PPG in those eight games, and an average margin of victory of 14 PPG.  They're now 2-6 when he hasn't played, averaging only 53 PPG, and an average margin of loss of -4.6 PPG.  It's not surprising that he has a large impact but it is rather staggering in the size of it.

-Russell County plummets down the ranks as the expiration date on their early season success has hit.  The Lakers stayed afloat for so long thanks to early wins over Greenwood, Warren Central, and Clinton County, and had not lost to a region opponent despite some close calls.  That ended in a home loss to Metcalfe County and suddenly you see that they've lost five of their last seven games as well.  Those marquee wins are nearly two months in the rearview now, and their only wins since the start of the 2024 calendar year are against fellow 16th District opponents - two of them over Monroe County who is in last place in the district.  The time has come for them to move back. 

-Clinton County did something you don't often see outside of Christmas tournaments - they won two games in a single day.  The Bulldogs took on both Hopkins County Central and Southwestern on Saturday, both wins, but in very different ways.  Their game against Hopkins County Central was a high scoring affair, won by a 93-84 score.  That's a season high for the Bulldogs, who much more frequently win by defense and lower scores.  They followed that up with a grinding 58-50 win over Southwestern, capping a four win week.  Clinton County's 93 points against Hopkins County Central were the most they have scored since beating Cumberland County 95-34 on January 22nd, 2015 - nine years ago.

-Franklin-Simpson opened the week with a 65-56 win over Logan County to take control of the 13th District race, but got some slightly unexpected help from Todd County Central, whose 62-56 overtime win over the Cougars handed the #1 seed to Franklin-Simpson and locked in the district matchups.  Franklin-Simpson has clinched the 1, they'll play Russellville who is locked into the 4, and Logan County and Todd County Central will be in the 2/3 game, though the exact seeds are still pending.

-In the 14th, the expected results have continued to hold, and now we have the last district matchups to close this week.  Bowling Green will host Warren Central, while South Warren will host Greenwood.  The results of these games likely won't matter.  If Warren Central beats Bowling Green, then the top seed will be determined by the RPI tiebreaker, where Bowling Green has (I believe) an insurmountable lead.  South Warren's lead of Greenwood is not as large, but realistically, they likewise would be expected to win the tiebreaker even if they lost to Greenwood.  We'll know for sure in a week.

-The 15th has Barren County locked in at the #1 and Warren East at #2.  Allen County-Scottsville can force a two-way tiebreaker with Glasgow for #3 if they win out against Barren County and Glasgow this week. It would go to a "pill bottle" draw, with the Patriots drawing as the district host.  Realistically, Barren County is going to put this scenario to bed tomorrow, as I'd be stunned if the Patriots won either game. 

-The 16th has gained clarity at the bottom - Metcalfe County and Monroe County will be #4 and #5 seeds - the order is pending.  If Monroe County can upset Cumberland County, it'll go to a two way tiebreak, otherwise Metcalfe County will be the 4 and Monroe the 5, but one way or the other, they'll play in the "play-in" game.  Russell County's loss to Metcalfe County was surprising, but they still control their own destiny.  But their margin for error has been lost.  They play both their rivals for that #1 seed, hosting Cumberland County on Tuesday and visiting Clinton County eight days later.  They still sit in first at 5-1.  Cumberland County has the visit to Russell County, then two days later hosts Monroe County, before hosting Clinton County on Super Bowl Sunday (now THERE'S an interesting scheduling choice....).  At 4-1, they too control their destiny.  Clinton County has the Super Bowl Sunday matchup at Cumberland County and hosts Russell County on Valentine's Day.  As they are 4-2, they can assure themselves of being no worse than #2 if they win out, since that would mean either Russell County or Cumberland County could do no better than three losses in district play, but they'd need Russell County to lose out and Cumberland County to lose to Monroe County in order to take the top seed outright.  It's highly likely that if Clinton County wins out that it will require a coin flip to determine the top seed given those requirements.  It is not possible for there to be a three-way tie due to the way the games are scheduled.

-It's been mentioned before, but the region is incredibly down.  Bowling Green is as clear a favorite as you're likely to get given their play to this point.  Warren Central is a dark horse, but very much tied to the health of Kade Unseld in their ability to compete with Bowling Green.  Frankly, I haven't seen anything else that shows that anyone else has a prayer against the Purples.  I could cite the stats I've posted previously about how few times they've lost to a region team other than Warren Central in the last 15 years, but it should suffice to note that in the seven games against 4th Region teams they've played other than Warren Central, they have not won a single one by less than 21.  That includes a 29 point thrashing of #5 Franklin-Simpson, wins over #6 South Warren by 44 and 26, and wins over #9 Greenwood by 48 and 21.  We'll see how they match up with Barren County in eight days to know whether they have the potential to push them, but don't bank on it. The 4th Region is ranked #13 out of 16 regions in the Massey Ratings, and that's with both Bowling Green and Warren Central pulling it up. 

On 2/4/2024 at 7:13 PM, DragonFire said:

-The 15th has Barren County locked in at the #1 and Warren East at #2.  Allen County-Scottsville can force a two-way tiebreaker with Glasgow for #3 if they win out against Barren County and Glasgow this week. It would go to a "pill bottle" draw, with the Patriots drawing as the district host.  Realistically, Barren County is going to put this scenario to bed tomorrow, as I'd be stunned if the Patriots won either game.

Then again.......

I don't know what has happened to Barren County, but losing to an Allen County team that came in having not won a single region game and only two games on the year - one of which was over the Bluegrass Blazers home school team - BY FIFTEEN..... it's the latest sign that something has gone way wrong for the Trojans.  They are still likely to play AC/S in the district tournament, but suddenly they are looking at playing either Glasgow or Allen County-Scottsville at AC/S later this month in the 1/4 game, and they lost to each by identical 58-43 scores in the last two weeks.  Barren County has not won away from their home gym since beating Whites Creek (TN) one month ago, and are now 7-7 in road + neutral contests.  They better figure things out quick.

Meanwhile, this does set up the potential for Allen County-Scottsville to force a two-way tiebreaker with Glasgow for the #3 seed.  They play Friday at Glasgow.  Glasgow won the first matchup 42-33 at Allen County-Scottsville.  If the Patriots should pull off that upset, then it will go to a pill bottle draw with AC/S the one to choose.  It's not exactly "fate in their hands", but it kinda is.

Great stuff as always @DragonFire.  I didn't realize it until reading your write-up that WC has only played 16 games to this point and finish out with 7 games in 18 days, nearly half the number of games they've played for the year. With Kade's clear limited injury restriction, do you see this stretch as a positive or negative for the Dragons?  Would they benefit from resting Kade or getting him more game time to get right?

Anyone know if there is a video stream for tonight's Butler County v Warren Central game?

22 minutes ago, ApolloFan98 said:

Anyone know if there is a video stream for tonight's Butler County v Warren Central game?

Will be streamed for free at the link below:

- Sporting Times (stfanclub.com)

32 minutes ago, Purple_Reign said:

Great stuff as always @DragonFire.  I didn't realize it until reading your write-up that WC has only played 16 games to this point and finish out with 7 games in 18 days, nearly half the number of games they've played for the year. With Kade's clear limited injury restriction, do you see this stretch as a positive or negative for the Dragons?  Would they benefit from resting Kade or getting him more game time to get right?

I believe getting him more game time to get right is probably what they need if they are going to be able to make the push they want to make.  I assume he will continue to not play in back to backs until the postseason (or beyond - maybe they gamble sitting him in a region semifinal, but I doubt it, and surely they wouldn't sit him in a region final).  That would mean he's not likely to play against Paducah Tilghman on Saturday (the day after playing Bowling Green), and would sit out either February 15th against North Hardin or February 16th against Russellville.  Perhaps most likely would be sitting out North Hardin, since that's just two days after their game against Adair County.  So that would be five of the seven games that he should play, and I believe they'll try their level best to make sure he plays in all of them.  The Lexington Catholic game is their only game between the 16th and the 27th (which I presume will be the date of the district semifinals), so he should have quite a bit of time to rest in that span anyway.  I think they need to get him in a rhythm as much as possible.  He played more in the South Warren game than he had in any game to this point, so while back to backs are out, perhaps the injury restrictions are lightening.  I don't know that I see him getting all the way up to the 28-30 minutes they probably need him to play, but if he can get the equivalent of three full quarters, that's going to make all the difference.

It is unfortunate that they lost a couple of games since their schedule was already so light.  Glasgow dropped off due to the snow in mid-January, as did the showcase in Taylor County where they'd have met Montgomery County.  I'm not sure why Evangel Christian dropped off, but they were supposed to be the Tuesday in between Russellville and Lexington Catholic.  That would have gotten them more games for everyone to get more in the flow - I don't consider playing only 23 games out of 30 possible to be a plus.

50 minutes ago, Purple_Reign said:

Will be streamed for free at the link below:

- Sporting Times (stfanclub.com)

Thank you!!

Great job as always @DragonFire!

So Unseld didn't play vs Etown?  If so, that's a really good performance from the other Warren Central guys as Etown is tough.  Also very nice win over a very good Butler County team.

I'm going to the BG vs Warren Central game on Friday, so I'm excited to get to go.

Interested to see how the Greenwood vs South games comes out too.

6 hours ago, Purple88 said:

Great job as always @DragonFire!

So Unseld didn't play vs Etown?  If so, that's a really good performance from the other Warren Central guys as Etown is tough.  Also very nice win over a very good Butler County team.

I'm going to the BG vs Warren Central game on Friday, so I'm excited to get to go.

Interested to see how the Greenwood vs South games comes out too.

Correct, Unseld did not play vs. Elizabethtown, nor did Howard.  And Armani Byrd wasn't able to go in the second half after scoring eight in the first.  So they were shorthanded all around, but Unseld is obviously the big factor.

I'm pretty confident that Bowling Green will win tomorrow, and I feel this one will be by double digits.  I have a feeling they'll want to prove something after the first matchup, and they're always tough at home.  I'm less certain of the South/Greenwood matchup.  I think it'll be South, but that one should be competitive.