Go for it?

[Voice of Reason]

I found this fun calculator when looking into the Bengals decision to go for it on 4th and goal from the 2 against the Ravens. You can plug in the game situation and it will tell you the possible outcomes if you go for it on 4th down or on a 2 point try. It tells you likelihood of success on the play and the impact on your team's chances of winning the game. Here it is: 

https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/

Enjoy!

[DragonFire]

Well a lot of those choices we’ve seen lately on display in the NFL sure have backfired. I was stunned Reid went for two tonight while up 7 and then the Raiders gifting it back going for two when down 1 with a LOT of time left. 

[Voice of Reason]

Here is one that I did in tonight's game of the Raiders at the Chiefs.

Down 1 point with 4:27 left, should the Raiders go for 2 or kick the extra point and tie the game?

Chances of making the 2 point try 45%. If the Raiders are successful on the 2 point try, there is a 44% chance they win. If they kick the extra point, 93% chance it is good and 35% chance they win.

Is it worth the extra 9% chance of winning to take a 45% chance of converting the 2 point try?

[theguru]

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

Here is one that I did in tonight's game of the Raiders at the Chiefs.

Down 1 point with 4:27 left, should the Raiders go for 2 or kick the extra point and tie the game?

Chances of making the 2 point try 45%. If the Raiders are successful on the 2 point try, there is a 44% chance they win. If they kick the extra point, 93% chance it is good and 35% chance they win.

Is it worth the extra 9% chance of winning to take a 45% chance of converting the 2 point try?

Tonight it wasn't.

[Voice of Reason]

26 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Well a lot of those choices we’ve seen lately on display in the NFL sure have backfired. I was stunned Reid went for two tonight while up 7 and then the Raiders gifting it back going for two when down 1 with a LOT of time left. 

Calculator says: 

If the Chiefs convert the 2, chances of winning only increase from 89% to 93%. If they kick the extra point, chance of winning is 91%. There is a 57% chance of making the 2 point try and a 93% chance they are good kicking the extra point. Not much gain in winning chances for 2 but not a big increase in risk of losing. That seemed strange but I can see why he went for it. That makes it a 2 score game. I am surprised the chance of winning doesn't increase more if they make the 2 point try.

[bugatti]